2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreSHSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · Earnest Crownover run for 1 yd to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:51: Haynes King pass incomplete — SHSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- SACK · Q2 3:14: Jordan Yates sacked by Antonio Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the SmHou 16 — TA&M win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:50: Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 63 yds for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK) — TA&M win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:35: Jordan Yates run for 9 yds to the SmHou 34 — SHSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:52: Devon Achane run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SHSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 13:04SHSU 4th & 6 at SHSU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q1 11:43TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q1 9:29SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 29, tiedClose callPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:13TA&M 4th & 9 at SHSU 35, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.1%32% to convertField goalTheir call97.1%−<0.145% to makePunt97.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:48SHSU 4th & 13 at SHSU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 10:30TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q2 9:00SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q2 7:09SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q2 4:59TA&M 4th & 10 at SHSU 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call94.6%70% to makePunt93.6%−1.1average punt
- Q2 4:00SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q2 3:15TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 30, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%average punt
- Q2 2:06SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.8%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q3 5:55SHSU 4th & 4 at TA&M 49, down 24Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 0:58SHSU 4th & 13 at TA&M 38, down 24Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.121% to convertField goal0.9%38% to makePuntTheir call0.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:00SHSU 4th & 8 at SHSU 37, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:08TA&M 4th & 3 at SHSU 45, up 31Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:41SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 33, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 3:39TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:50TA&M Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:52TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:10TA&M Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSHSUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.8%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 1 yd to the SmHou 26Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
98.7%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds to the SmHou 34Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+9
98.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 9 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Q1 11:43
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+43
98.5%
Nik Constantinou punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEXASAM 30 SAM HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Noah Smith) to the SmHou 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:012% → 2%
TA&MDrive 4MISSED FG6 plays · 31 yds · 2:1498% → 98%
SHSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:122% → 2%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
97.9%
SAM HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SmHou 25Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+7
97.8%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Noah Smith for 7 yds to the SmHou 32Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
97.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6TD5 plays · 77 yds · 1:5198% → 98%
Q1 3:39
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+66
97.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 66 yds for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7INT10 plays · 55 yds · 4:542% → 3%
Q1 0:55
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
97.3%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Cody Chrest for 2 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+17
97.1%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Jackson Sherrard for 17 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-13
96.8%
Jordan Yates pass intercepted Jardin Gilbert return for 13 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 3:0497% → 97%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+7
97.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Chris Marshall for 7 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
97.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Devon Achane for 9 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
97.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 2 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
96.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SmHou 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:003% → 3%
Q2 9:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
96.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 39 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10INT2 plays · 21 yds · 0:2097% → 97%
SHSUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:564% → 4%
Q2 7:09
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+5
96.4%
Jadon Cardell punt for 50 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 5 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12FG9 plays · 36 yds · 1:4697% → 96%
Q2 6:44
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+38
96.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 23 yds to the TEXASAM 38 for a 1ST down SAM HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SmHou 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
96.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SmHou 33Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 20
OPP 33
+10
96.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Chris Marshall for 10 yds to the SmHou 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:194% → 4%
Q2 4:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Jadon Cardell punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3696% → 96%
Q2 3:15
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
95.5%
Nik Constantinou punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Cody Chrest at the SmHou 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:084% → 4%
TA&MDrive 16TD3 plays · 67 yds · 1:1096% → 98%
Q2 0:50
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+63
98.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 63 yds for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17END OF HALF5 plays · 7 yds · 0:213% → 3%
TA&MDrive 18TD13 plays · 71 yds · 5:5898% → 99%
SHSUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:571% → 1%
TA&MDrive 20INT6 plays · 31 yds · 2:3899% → 99%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.0%
SAM HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
99.0%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the TexAM 36 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 19
OWN 26
+9
99.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Chris Marshall for 9 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 8 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
99.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 8 yds to the SmHou 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-33
99.2%
Haynes King pass intercepted Kameryn Alexander return for 33 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-12
98.9%
Jordan Yates sacked by Isaiah Raikes and Lebbeus Overton for a loss of 12 yards to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 20
OPP 45
-5
99.2%
SAM HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
99.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD10 plays · 89 yds · 4:3299% → 100%
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+9
99.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 9 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 8 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+15
99.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Chris Marshall for 15 yds to the SmHou 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
99.4%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+12
99.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 12 yds to the SmHou 43Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+43
99.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 43 yds for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23FUMBLE9 plays · 55 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Zach Hrbacek for 3 yds to the SmHou 38Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-1
99.9%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Jackson Sherrard for a loss of 1 yard to the SmHou 37Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+10
99.9%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Noah Smith for 10 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
99.9%
Dezmon Jackson run for 9 yds to the TexAM 20 Dezmon Jackson fumbled, recovered by TexAM Jacoby MathewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 35 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
SHSUDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+12
100.0%
Jordan Yates sacked by Shemar Stewart for a loss of 3 yards to the SmHou 18 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SmHou 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Moose Muhammad III at the TexAM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26END OF GAME3 plays · 10 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:50
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 63 yds for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q3 8:52
Devon Achane run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK)
+0.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:35
Jordan Yates run for 9 yds to the SmHou 34
-0.7