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BALL

Ball State 10 at Tennessee 59

TENN
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2022 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Navy Shuler run for a loss of 18 yards to the Tenn 38 Navy Shuler fumbled, recovered by Tenn
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:02: Hendon Hooker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:29: Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:33: Jabari Small run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:45: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Walker Merrill for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:00: John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:48BALL 4th & 10 at TENN 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03TENN 4th & 5 at BALL 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:22BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:14TENN 4th & 1 at BALL 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:37BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:05TENN 4th & 1 at BALL 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:30BALL 4th & 21 at BALL 49, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:24TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 19, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:05BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:25TENN 4th & 1 at BALL 4, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:12BALL 4th & 2 at TENN 47, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:02BALL 4th & 7 at TENN 46, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:44TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 26, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:18BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 48, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:55BALL 4th & 4 at TENN 8, down 52
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:37TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:02TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:29TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:33TENN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:45TENN Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:52TENN Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:00BALL Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:48TENN Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:04TENN Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
98.5%
John Paddock pass intercepted Tamarion McDonald return for 5 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
98.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 23 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:422% → 2%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
98.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+7
98.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 7 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
98.4%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
98.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+8
98.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.3%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
98.2%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+14
98.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 14 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
98.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Nic JonesSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
98.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
98.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:2798% → 98%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
98.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 15 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
98.1%
Jabari Small run for 14 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
98.1%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
98.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 8 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
98.1%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
98.0%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
98.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Princeton FantSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
98.0%
Chase McGrath 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:252% → 2%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.9%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
97.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 7 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.8%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.8%
John Paddock run for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:1698% → 98%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.9%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
97.9%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+1
97.8%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+5
97.8%
BALL ST Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (5 Yards) to the BalSt 25Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+10
97.8%
Jabari Small run for 10 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.8%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
97.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 8 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+5
97.7%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.7%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:082% → 2%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.1%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
98.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 1 yd to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
98.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 yds, downed at the Tenn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:5198% → 99%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.0%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the Tenn 24Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
98.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+32
98.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 32 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
98.1%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Jordan Riley-Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+5
98.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+5
98.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
98.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
98.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 6 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+20
98.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 20 yds to the BalSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
98.1%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 4:322% → 2%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
98.5%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+9
98.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 9 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
98.4%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+6
98.4%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
98.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 16 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
98.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Ryan Lezon for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
98.3%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-5
98.4%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+4
98.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 6
OPP 36
-15
98.4%
BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 21
OWN 49
0
98.5%
Lucas Borrow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trevon Flowers at the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
98.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-7 Yards) to the Tenn 7Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+7
98.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 7 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
98.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Walker Merrill for 5 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
98.8%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Walker MerrillSimilar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
98.7%
Paxton Brooks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:542% → 2%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 3 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+3
98.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-5
98.4%
BALL ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 37Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Chase Wyatt punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:1299% → 100%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
98.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 14 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
98.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+8
98.9%
Jabari Small run for 8 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
98.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jabari Small for 12 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
98.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 5 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
99.5%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:081% → 1%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
John Paddock pass intercepted Kamal Hadden return for no gain to the Tenn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+7
99.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
99.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 18 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
99.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 9 yds to the BalSt 21 Jaylen Wright fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+4
99.5%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the BalSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
99.5%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the BalSt 16Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
99.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+16
99.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Walker Merrill for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Will Jones for 2 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
99.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 5 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+23
99.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 23 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
99.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Will Jones for 33 yds Will Jones fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:22100% → 100%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
99.7%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 15Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-3
99.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 10 yds to the Tenn 25 TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (-13 Yards) to the Tenn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
12 plays · 94 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
99.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+3
99.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+11
99.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 11 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
99.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+20
99.8%
Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+33
99.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 33 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:450% → 0%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 19 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 5 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
99.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 4 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
99.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
99.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 12 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
99.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 26 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the Tenn 5Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 2 yds to the Tenn 3Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
18 plays · 78 yds · 5:42100% → 100%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the Tenn 22Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+5
99.8%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+19
99.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 19 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+21
99.9%
Joe Milton III run for 21 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+14
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 14 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Hunter SalmonSimilar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+3
99.9%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (3 Yards) to the BalSt 4Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 0
OPP 2
0
99.9%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 15
OWN 28
0
99.9%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+17
99.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 17 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 8 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
99.9%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
99.9%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Lucas Borrow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trevon Flowers at the Tenn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
99.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-3 Yards) to the Tenn 4Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+6
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 6 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 5 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+10
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 10 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 13 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 53 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:480% → 0%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Rico Barfield run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
100.0%
Rico Barfield run for 10 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Rico Barfield run for no gain to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
100.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 16 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
100.0%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
100.0%
Donny Marcus run for 3 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
100.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
99.9%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Tayven Jackson run for no gain to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Paxton Brooks punt for 48 yds, downed at the BalSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
100.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+10
100.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 10 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
100.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Dean Tate for 8 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
100.0%
Rico Barfield run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
50
-1
100.0%
Donny Marcus run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-1
100.0%
Donny Marcus run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
100.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Vaughn PembertonSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
100.0%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for no gain to the Tenn 14 Justin Williams-Thomas fumbled, recovered by BalStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
100.0%
Rico Barfield run for no gain to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
100.0%
Rico Barfield run for 6 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
100.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Ryan LezonSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
100.0%
Ben VonGunten 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Patrick Wilk run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
Patrick Wilk run for 1 yd to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
100.0%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Jack Jancek for 17 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
100.0%
Patrick Wilk run for 6 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
100.0%
Patrick Wilk run for 3 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-18
100.0%
Navy Shuler run for a loss of 18 yards to the Tenn 38 Navy Shuler fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:29
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 4:33
Jabari Small run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 4:02
Hendon Hooker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com