Try the model
MEM

Memphis 23 at Mississippi State 49

MSST
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:57 · Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense+29.0Pregame prior+11.0Score differential+5.8Garbage-time factor+8.1Blowout margin+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:53: Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — MSST win probability +2.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:00: Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — MSST win probability +4.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:40: Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — MSST win probability +4.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:37: Jevyon Ducker run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +3.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:14: Seth Henigan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +2.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 7:25MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:00MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:57MEM 4th & 6 at MSST 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:44MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:24MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 36, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:34MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 25, down 25
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:58MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 38, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:15MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 33, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:15MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 33, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:21MSST 4th & 7 at MEM 47, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:57MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 9:53MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:53MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:00MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:40MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:48MSST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:37MEM Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:13MEM Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:59MSST Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:14MEM Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:05MSST Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:0786% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
85.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
85.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+12
85.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 12 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
85.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the Memph 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+12
85.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 12 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
85.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+8
85.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
85.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
85.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 23 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:2315% → 15%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
85.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 12 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
85.2%
Gabriel Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+8
85.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 8 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-2
85.3%
Seth Henigan sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
85.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 6:3285% → 88%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
85.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+9
85.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
85.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 16 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
85.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
85.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+15
85.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 15 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
85.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
85.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
85.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
85.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
85.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 12 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
85.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Memph 9Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4613% → 13%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
86.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
86.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
86.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
87.1%
Joe Doyle punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.8%
Will Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0114% → 15%
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
86.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
86.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
86.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
85.1%
Chris Howard 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:4886% → 91%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
85.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
85.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+9
85.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
50
+12
85.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 12 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
85.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+33
85.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 33 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
85.9%
ROGERS, Will pass to the right incomplete intended for DUCKING, Caleb thrown to the MEM0. PENALTY MEM Holding on SMITH, Cameron enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the MEM4 to the MEM2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 1 yd to the Memph 1Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1110% → 10%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
90.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 2 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
90.1%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
90.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
90.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
16 plays · 71 yds · 6:5691% → 95%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
90.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+9
90.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+7
90.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 7 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
91.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 12 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
91.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
91.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 5 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+20
91.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 20 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
91.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
91.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 2 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
90.9%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for DUCKING, Caleb thrown to the MEM1. PENALTY MEM Holding on RUBIN, Greg enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the MEM9 to the MEM4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
91.1%
ROGERS, Will pass up the middle incomplete intended for GRIFFIN, Lideatrick thrown to the MEM0; QB hurried by WHITLOW JR., William. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on RUBIN, Greg enforced 2 yards to the MEM2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
91.1%
Will Rogers run for no gain to the Memph 2Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:108% → 7%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
92.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 1 yd to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
92.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 4 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
92.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
92.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 41 yds , Austin Williams returns for no gain to the MisSt 36 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Simeon Price) to the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:2497% → 97%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
97.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Meonta Kimbrough) to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
97.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 5 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:253% → 3%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
96.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcayll Jones for 3 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
96.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+5
96.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 5 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 37 yds , Austin Williams returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:4698% → 99%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
97.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
97.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
97.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
97.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
97.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+35
99.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 35 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.1%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for LEWIS, Eddie thrown to the MEM42. PENALTY MSU Holding on GREEN, Jalen enforced 10 yards from the MEM25 to the MEM35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
98.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
99.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
99.1%
Joe Doyle punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4399% → 99%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+6
99.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+19
99.4%
Archer Trafford punt for 53 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 19 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+19
99.4%
Archer Trafford punt for 53 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 19 yds to the Memph 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:381% → 4%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
99.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
50
+50
96.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 4:1698% → 99%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
97.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
98.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
50
+6
98.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-8
98.5%
Will Rogers sacked by Jaylon Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
98.5%
Will Rogers run for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 12
OWN 48
+5
99.1%
GEORGOPOULOS, George punt 52 yards to the MEM0, Touchback, clock 03:28. PENALTY MEM Running Into the kicker enforced 5 yards from the MSU48 to the MEM47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
99.2%
George Georgopoulos punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:243% → 2%
Q3 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
97.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 1 yd to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+21
97.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 21 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
97.3%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
97.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-5
97.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Matt Dale) to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+8
97.3%
Seth Henigan run for 8 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
97.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 4 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-1
97.7%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:2699% → 99%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
99.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+13
99.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 13 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
99.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+17
99.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 17 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
99.4%
Will Rogers run for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 19 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by Memph Quindell JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:182% → 4%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
98.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 9 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
97.9%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
97.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 7 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
97.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for no gain to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
97.9%
Jevyon Ducker run for 4 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+43
97.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 43 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
97.5%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
95.7%
Eddie Lewis 15 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:1498% → 100%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
98.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
98.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
98.2%
JOHNSON, Dillon rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the MSU45 (JOHNSON, Quindell;RUBIN, Greg). PENALTY MSU Holding on SHARP, LaQuinston enforced 10 yards from the MSU37 to the MSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+12
98.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 12 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+27
98.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 27 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
98.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+33
99.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 33 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:310% → 3%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
99.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 18 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+10
99.8%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left incomplete intended for ROGERS, Gabriel thrown to the MSU15. PENALTY MSU Holding on LAWRENCE, Dylan enforced 10 yards from the MSU33 to the MSU23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
99.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+8
99.8%
Seth Henigan run for 8 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+4
99.8%
Jevyon Ducker run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 8 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+3
99.8%
Jevyon Ducker run for 3 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.6%
Simeon Price run for 3 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+11
99.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 11 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.7%
Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 23 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
100.0%
Asa Martin run for 14 yds to the Memph 45 Asa Martin fumbled, recovered by MisSt Shawn Preston Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Simeon Price run for 3 yds to the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:00
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 1:40
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q3 7:37
Jevyon Ducker run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
-3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com