2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:45 · Aveon Smith pass complete to Jalen Walker for 4 yds to the Kent 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 6:10: Graham Nicholson 48 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +5.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Matt Ruffolo 25 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +2.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:58: W. Levis pass,to C. Magwood for 8 yds for a TD, (M. Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +5.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:04: Graham Nicholson 27 Yd Field Goal — M-OH win probability +1.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:09: Matt Ruffolo 50 Yd Field Goal — UK win probability +2.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5M-OH made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 11:17M-OH 4th & 1 at UK 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.1%71% to convertField goal16.9%−0.254% to makePunt16.8%−0.3average punt
- Q1 5:29M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.9%average punt
- Q2 12:36UK 4th & 2 at M-OH 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.0%50% to convertField goal78.6%−0.493% to makePunt76.8%−2.2average punt
- Q2 11:08M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snapGo for it21.7%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.8%average punt
- Q2 9:22UK 4th & 11 at M-OH 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.0%−0.524% to convertField goalTheir call77.4%81% to makePunt75.1%−2.3average punt
- Q2 6:10M-OH 4th & 5 at UK 30, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.5%41% to convertField goalTheir call22.3%−0.256% to makePunt21.3%−1.2average punt
- Q2 4:23UK 4th & 20 at UK 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snapGo for it71.7%−2.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.3%average punt
- Q2 2:04M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 45, tiedClose callPunted · 28.6% before the snapGo for it28.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%−0.8average punt
- Q3 13:58M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 48, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.0%−1.8average punt
- Q3 9:04M-OH 4th & 10 at UK 10, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.2% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.924% to convertField goalTheir call7.8%88% to makePunt2.3%−5.5average punt
- Q3 5:46UK 4th & 15 at UK 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snapGo for it90.2%−1.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.8%average punt
- Q3 4:04M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.9%average punt
- Q3 1:09UK 4th & 8 at M-OH 31, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snapGo for it93.8%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call94.0%54% to makePunt93.1%−0.9average punt
- Q4 12:58M-OH 4th & 11 at UK 48, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q4 7:46M-OH 4th & 2 at UK 46, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%57% to convertField goal0.7%−0.123% to makePunt0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:45M-OH 4th & 11 at UK 38, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%27% to convertField goal0.4%−<0.138% to makePunt0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:45M-OH 4th & 11 at UK 38, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%27% to convertField goal0.4%−<0.138% to makePunt0.4%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:39M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.2%97% to makeGo for two18.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:29UK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.8%97% to makeGo for two81.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:58UK Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:46UK Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2114% → 17%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 12 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
85.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
85.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 8 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+2
85.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 2 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
85.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Keyon Mozee for 4 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
84.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 4 yds to the Kent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD5 plays · 79 yds · 2:0383% → 84%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+45
83.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 45 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+19
83.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 19 yds to the MiaOh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Brenden Bates for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0017% → 17%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 13 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
83.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 5 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
82.8%
Dom Dzioban punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the Kent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4DOWNS17 plays · 81 yds · 7:5383% → 81%
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+18
82.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 18 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+11
83.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 11 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+13
83.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 13 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
82.3%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Personal Foul (Matthew Salopek) to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2821% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6FG5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4681% → 80%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
81.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 17 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7FG7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1220% → 25%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
79.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 24 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
78.0%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Jacquez Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+9
79.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 9 yds to the Kent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:4778% → 75%
M-OHDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1927% → 27%
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
73.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 4 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+3
73.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 3 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
73.4%
Dom Dzioban punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the Kent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10FG12 plays · 77 yds · 2:0476% → 82%
Q2 2:04
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+15
75.9%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 15 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+41
76.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 41 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
76.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 4 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-5
76.7%
Will Levis sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
79.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Kavosiey Smoke for 10 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+6
78.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11FUMBLE3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4515% → 16%
UKDrive 12TD2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0487% → 92%
M-OHDrive 13FG16 plays · 65 yds · 4:549% → 10%
Q3 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+15
90.3%
GABBERT, Brett pass to the right incomplete intended for HIPPENHAMMER, Mac thrown to the UKY15. PENALTY UKY Pass Interference on VALENTINE, Carrington enforced 15 yards to the UKY25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
91.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Keyon Mozee for 2 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
89.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 15 yds to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
91.1%
GABBERT, Brett pass up the middle incomplete intended for MUERSCH, Nate thrown to the UKY0. PENALTY UKY Pass Interference on VALENTINE, Carrington Before the snap, MIA Illegal Formation , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1892% → 92%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
92.0%
LEVIS, Will pass to the right incomplete intended for CUMMINGS, Izayah thrown to the MIA48; QB hurried by DOWELL, Michael. PENALTY MIA Holding on WARREN, Jacquez enforced 10 yards from the UKY35 to the UKY45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-8
91.9%
Will Levis sacked by Corey Suttle and Ryan McWood for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:429% → 7%
Q3 4:04
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+23
92.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 33 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 23 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16FG7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5594% → 96%
Q3 4:04
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+13
93.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 13 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 3:115% → 4%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 11 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
95.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 8 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+8
95.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 8 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
95.3%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DAVIS, Kevin ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 11
OPP 48
+2
96.2%
Dom Dzioban punt for 34 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 2 yds to the Kent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD12 plays · 84 yds · 5:1297% → 100%
Q4 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+13
97.0%
Will Levis pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 13 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 3 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+38
97.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 38 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
97.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 16 yds to the MiaOh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
97.3%
LEVIS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for KEY, Dane thrown to the MIA0. PENALTY MIA Pass Interference on SAUNDERS JR., John enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the MIA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
97.8%
LEVIS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for DINGLE, Justice thrown to the MIA0. PENALTY Before the snap, UKY Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MIA2 to the MIA7. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
97.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Kavosiey Smoke for 6 yds to the MiaOh 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19DOWNS15 plays · 41 yds · 7:011% → 1%
Q4 7:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Nate Muersch for 7 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-4
99.1%
GABBERT, Brett pass to the left complete for 12 yards to MUERSCH, Nate caught at the MIA49 and advanced to the MIA49 (VALENTINE, Carrington). PENALTY MIA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 4 yards from the MIA37 to the MIA33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+6
99.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Nate Muersch for 6 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
99.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 8 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+9
99.2%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 9 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-5
99.1%
Aveon Smith sacked by Alex Afari Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 38Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+4
99.5%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jalen Walker for 4 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+4
99.5%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jalen Walker for 4 yds to the Kent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:58
W. Levis pass,to C. Magwood for 8 yds for a TD, (M. Ruffolo KICK)
+5.3
FG · Q2 6:10
Graham Nicholson 48 yd FG GOOD
-5.2
FG · Q2 0:00
Matt Ruffolo 25 yd FG GOOD
+2.6