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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreORE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:33 · Jordan James run for 1 yd to the Geo 10 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:15: Ladd McConkey run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:55: Stetson Bennett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +2.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:25: Kenny McIntosh run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +4.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:57: Camden Lewis 35 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +2.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:21: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +4.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 11:33ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 47, tiedClose callPunted · 15.5% before the snapGo for it15.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 3:57ORE 4th & 16 at UGA 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.814% to convertField goalTheir call5.6%80% to makePunt3.2%−2.4average punt
- Q3 9:17ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 42, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 4:26ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 43, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 12:57ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 33, down 46Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:09UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 36, up 46Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:30ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 20, down 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:33ORE 4th & 1 at UGA 11, down 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.187% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 6:15UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.3%97% to makeGo for two84.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:55UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:25UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:21UGA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:17UGA Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:20UGA Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:50UGA Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOREDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 3:1111% → 12%
Q1 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+10
89.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 10 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
88.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 8 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
88.3%
Adam Barry punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ladd McConkey at the Geo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD12 plays · 85 yds · 5:0788% → 89%
Q1 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+9
88.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 9 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
87.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 17 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
87.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 8 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+14
87.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 14 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
87.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+12
87.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 12 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+7
87.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 7 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3INT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3012% → 13%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.2%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Malaki Starks return for no gain to the Geo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD7 plays · 92 yds · 3:2788% → 91%
Q1 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+25
87.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 25 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
87.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 9 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+29
87.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 29 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
87.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 25 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5INT8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3511% → 12%
Q2 13:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
89.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sean Dollars for 7 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
89.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 5 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+31
89.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 16 yds to the GEORGIA 44 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Geo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-22
88.4%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Christopher Smith return for 22 yds to the Geo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD7 plays · 56 yds · 3:3891% → 95%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-15
90.7%
GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Geo 29Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+42
90.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 27 yds to the GEORGIA 35 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FG14 plays · 58 yds · 4:176% → 8%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
94.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 11 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
94.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 12 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
93.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 7 yds to the Geo 21 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (10 Yards) to the Geo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2493% → 97%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 6 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
92.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 11 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+6
92.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 6 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
92.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 8 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+38
92.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 38 yds to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+4
96.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9END OF HALF8 plays · 39 yds · 0:135% → 6%
UGADrive 10TD7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2898% → 99%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
97.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 25 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
97.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+13
97.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 13 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 2:421% → 1%
Q3 10:38
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+4
99.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q3 8:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
99.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 21 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
99.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 25 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
99.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 5 yds to the Oregn 8 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 18Similar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 18 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:340% → 0%
UGADrive 14TD9 plays · 89 yds · 4:05100% → 100%
Q3 3:33
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+13
99.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 13 yds to the Geo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+13
99.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 13 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
99.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 23 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
99.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Kendall Milton for 18 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 12:57
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Adam Barry punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ladd McConkey at the Geo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:25
Kenny McIntosh run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q2 0:21
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+4.2
FG · Q2 3:57
Camden Lewis 35 yd FG GOOD
-2.9