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MER

Mercer 16 at Auburn 42

AUB
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMER aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMER score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD—AUB 99.9%Fred Payton pass complete to DevronHarper for 8 yds for a TD, (DevinFolser PAT MISSED)AWAY 16 - HOME 42 · Q4 0:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:25 · Fred Payton pass complete to Devron Harper for 8 yds for a TD, (Devin Folser PAT MISSED)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Pregame prior+0.5Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+29.0Blowout margin+17.3Garbage-time factor+9.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:43: T.J. Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:17: Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:04: Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:20: Fred Payton pass complete to Devron Harper for 5 yds for a TD, (Devin Folser KICK) — MER win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:47: Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MER made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 5:45MER 4th & 6 at MER 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:38MER 4th & 5 at MER 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53AUB 4th & 9 at MER 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:10MER 4th & 15 at MER 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:48MER 4th & 5 at MER 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:48MER 4th & 5 at MER 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:48AUB 4th & 1 at MER 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:59MER 4th & 5 at MER 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MER 4th & 5 at MER 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:00MER 4th & 8 at MER 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:17MER 4th & 18 at MER 17, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:49MER 4th & 16 at AUB 16, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:50AUB 4th & 8 at MER 37, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:50AUB 4th & 8 at MER 37, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MER made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:32AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:43AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:17AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:04AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:20MER Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:47AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:21AUB Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:25MER Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 5:2896% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
96.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
96.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
96.3%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
96.3%
Robby Ashford run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
50
0
96.3%
T.J. Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
50
+4
96.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Mercr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
96.3%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 16 yds to the Mercr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
96.3%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 2 yds to the Mercr 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
96.3%
Malcolm Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mercr 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+6
96.3%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 6 yds to the Mercr 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
95.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 19 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:424% → 5%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
95.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Austin Douglas for 7 yds to the Mercr 25Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+14
95.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ty James for 14 yds to the Mercr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
95.6%
Al Wooten II run for 1 yd to the Mercr 40Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-10
95.6%
MERCER Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mercr 31Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+6
95.6%
Fred Payton run for 6 yds to the Mercr 37Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+6
95.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Al Wooten II for 6 yds to the Mercr 43Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+49
95.1%
Trey Turk punt for 49 yds , Ja'Varrius Johnson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
4 plays · 93 yds · 2:0295% → 96%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+49
95.1%
Robby Ashford run for 49 yds to the Mercr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
95.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Mercr 41Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+39
95.3%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 39 yds to the Mercr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.9%
T.J. Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:014% → 5%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
95.6%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
95.6%
Al Wooten II run for 5 yds to the Mercr 17Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
95.6%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
95.5%
Trey Turk punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:4596% → 96%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
95.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Mercr 45Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+4
95.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Mercr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
95.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Mercr 39Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-1
95.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mercr 40Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
95.6%
T.J. Finley run for no gain to the Mercr 40Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
95.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:435% → 5%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
95.2%
Austin Douglas run for 3 yds to the Mercr 14Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+9
95.2%
Fred Payton pass complete to Devron Harper for 9 yds to the Mercr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
95.1%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-10
95.2%
run for a loss of 10 yards to the Mercr 13Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 20
OWN 13
+5
95.2%
Al Wooten II run for 5 yds to the Mercr 18Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 15
OWN 18
+12
95.1%
Trey Turk punt for 32 yds , Ja'Varrius Johnson returns for 12 yds to the Mercr 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5396% → 97%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
95.6%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 19 yds to the Mercr 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
95.6%
Tar'Varish Dawson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Mercr 13Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+10
95.6%
Robby Ashford run for 10 yds to the Mercr 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.6%
PENALTY AUB Unnecessary Roughness on JACKSON, Shedrick MER Unnecessary Roughness on DOWLING, Isaac , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
95.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Mercr 2Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:293% → 3%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.2%
Fred Payton run for 1 yd to the Mercr 26Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
97.2%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
97.2%
MERCER Penalty, False Start (Brandon Marshall) to the Mercr 21Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
97.3%
Fred Payton pass complete to Austin Douglas for 9 yds to the Mercr 30Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+17
97.3%
Trey Turk punt for 40 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 17 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+17
97.3%
Trey Turk punt for 40 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 17 yds to the Aub 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:4498% → 99%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
97.6%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 8 yds to the Mercr 45Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+6
97.6%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 6 yds to the Mercr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
97.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 21 yds to the Mercr 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
97.6%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the Mercr 14Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-5
97.6%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mercr 19Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+10
97.6%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 10 yds to the Mercr 9Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+7
97.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Mercr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:051% → 1%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.1%
Al Wooten II run for 2 yds to the Mercr 27Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.1%
Austin Douglas run for 5 yds to the Mercr 32Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
99.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 30Similar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+16
99.0%
Trey Turk punt for 60 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 16 yds to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11INT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
99.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Troxell) to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 19
OWN 17
+1
99.1%
T.J. Finley run for 1 yd to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 18
OWN 18
0
99.1%
T.J. Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 18
OWN 18
0
99.3%
T.J. Finley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 12TD
15 plays · 29 yds · 1:091% → 3%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+14
99.2%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ty James for 14 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
99.0%
MERCER Penalty, False Start (Ni Mansell) to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 15
OPP 20
-5
99.0%
MERCER Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+6
99.0%
Fred Payton pass complete to Austin Douglas for 6 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
99.0%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+14
99.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ty James for 14 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.2%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.3%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to Devron Harper for 5 yds for a TD, (Devin Folser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
98.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.6%
Al Wooten II run for 4 yds to the Mercr 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
97.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to Al Wooten II for 8 yds to the Mercr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.5%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.5%
Austin Douglas run for 5 yds to the Mercr 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
97.5%
Al Wooten II run for no gain to the Mercr 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
97.5%
Trey Turk punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15INT
6 plays · 51 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
98.0%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+12
98.0%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 12 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 12 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
98.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 24 yds to the Mercr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.1%
T.J. Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
98.1%
T.J. Finley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:412% → 2%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.9%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
97.9%
Austin Douglas run for 10 yds to the Mercr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
97.9%
Austin Douglas run for 2 yds to the Mercr 49Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
97.9%
Parker Wroble run for 6 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-6
97.9%
Fred Payton sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 6 yards to the Mercr 49Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
98.0%
Trey Turk punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1398% → 100%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+8
98.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson Jr. for 8 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
98.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+56
98.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 56 yds to the Mercr 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the Mercr 1Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
MERCER Penalty, False Start (Andrew May) to the Mercr 20Similar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Fred Payton pass complete to Trey Adkins for no gain to the Mercr 20Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Brandon Marshall run for 2 yds to the Mercr 22Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
99.8%
MERCER Penalty, Delay Of Game (Fred Payton) to the Mercr 17Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
99.8%
Fred Payton run for no gain to the Mercr 17Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+1
99.9%
Trey Turk punt for 46 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 1 yd to the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.8%
Koy Moore run for 8 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+15
99.8%
ASHFORD, Robby pass up the middle incomplete intended for DAWSON, Tar'Varish thrown to the MER3. PENALTY MER Pass Interference on WATKINS, Shi'heem enforced 15 yards to the MER39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.8%
Tank Bigsby 39 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 20FG
21 plays · 59 yds · 8:320% → 0%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Al Wooten II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 23Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
99.9%
Al Wooten II run for 8 yds to the Mercr 31Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Brandon Marshall for 4 yds to the Mercr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Al Wooten II run for no gain to the Mercr 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Parker Wroble for 1 yd to the Mercr 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Fred Payton run for 5 yds to the Mercr 41Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
MER fumbled snap, TURK, Trey punt 2 yards to the MER43 downed, clock 13:05. PENALTY AUB Running Into the kicker enforced 5 yards from the MER41 to the MER46 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Devron Harper for 17 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Austin Douglas run for 2 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Austin Douglas run for 6 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
99.9%
Austin Douglas run for 4 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Fred Payton run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-10
99.9%
PAYTON, Fred pass to the left complete for 7 yards to DOUGLAS, Austin caught at the AUB23 and advanced to the AUB18 (HALL, Derick). PENALTY MER Holding on RICHARDSON, Cedric enforced 10 yards from the AUB25 to the AUB35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+26
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Trey Adkins for 26 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Austin Douglas run for 3 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
99.9%
MERCER Penalty, False Start (Al Wooten II) to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
99.9%
MERCER Penalty, Delay Of Game (Fred Payton) to the Aub 16Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
99.9%
Devin Folser 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+13
99.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Damari Alston for 13 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
99.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+23
99.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 23 yds to the Mercr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.9%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the Mercr 38Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
99.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Mercr 37Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the Mercr 35Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the Mercr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 22TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Al Wooten II run for 6 yds to the Mercr 41Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Parker Wroble for 15 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Parker Wroble for 24 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Al Wooten II for 3 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
99.9%
Al Wooten II run for 1 yd to the Aub 16Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+6
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Devron Harper for 6 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.9%
Al Wooten II run for 2 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Devron Harper for 8 yds for a TD, (Devin Folser PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.9%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the Aub 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:20
Fred Payton pass complete to Devron Harper for 5 yds for a TD, (Devin Folser KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q2 10:17
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 5:04
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com