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CIN

Cincinnati 24 at Arkansas 31

ARK
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:24 · Mason Fletcher punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+14.6Home team on offense+4.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:17: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +8.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:59: Corey Kiner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +11.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:00: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 19 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +7.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:50: Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +13.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:49: Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 15 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +10.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:12ARK 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:27CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:51ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:13CIN 4th & 3 at ARK 7, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.9%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:17ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:23CIN 4th & 8 at ARK 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:52ARK 4th & 2 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:24CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:12ARK 4th & 3 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:41CIN 4th & 2 at ARK 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−1.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:14CIN 4th & 9 at ARK 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:44CIN 4th & 8 at ARK 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−10.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:28ARK 4th & 11 at CIN 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−2.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−10.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:31ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:18ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:17ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:59CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:00ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:50CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:26ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:49CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4074% → 73%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
73.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
73.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
73.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+6
73.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 2
50
0
73.4%
Max Fletcher punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2INT
12 plays · 59 yds · 5:3427% → 29%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
73.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Will Pauling for 1 yd to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+6
73.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 6 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+3
73.2%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
72.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
72.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 9 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
72.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 7 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-2
72.2%
Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
72.1%
Ben Bryant run for 6 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
71.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Cooper) to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+28
71.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 28 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-51
70.9%
Ben Bryant pass intercepted Dwight McGlothern return for 51 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:4873% → 75%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
72.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Cincy 25 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 16
OPP 35
+20
72.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 20 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
75.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:4326% → 25%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
74.5%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
75.0%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+3
75.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 54 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for 3 yds to the Ark 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2475% → 74%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
74.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-2
74.9%
Jadon Haselwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 30 Jadon Haselwood fumbled, recovered by Ark Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-1
74.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 10
OWN 29
-5
74.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Dwight McGlothern) to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
74.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:3826% → 26%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
50
+21
73.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charles McClelland for 6 yds to the ARKANSAS 44 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (Jalen Catalon) to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
72.8%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+11
72.8%
Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
72.7%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 6
-1
72.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 7Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
73.3%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
73.9%
Ryan Coe 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4875% → 74%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
74.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 16 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
75.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 20
OWN 26
0
75.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Raheim SandersSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 20
OWN 26
-1
74.8%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+10
74.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 10 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
74.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:3625% → 25%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charles McClelland for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
74.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 25 yds Tre Tucker fumbled, recovered by CincySimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.3%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
73.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
73.8%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
74.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds, downed at the Ark 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:2475% → 76%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
75.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+24
75.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 24 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
75.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yd to the Ark 36 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by Ark KJ JeffersonSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
76.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+6
75.6%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
76.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
76.2%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+3
76.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 2
50
+7
76.3%
Max Fletcher punt for 37 yds , Tre Tucker returns for 7 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0924% → 23%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
75.6%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
75.6%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-6
76.3%
Ben Bryant sacked by Drew Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
77.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5077% → 77%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
76.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-3
77.4%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+10
75.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 10 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
77.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
78.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 3
50
0
77.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 3
50
0
76.7%
Max Fletcher punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:4924% → 23%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
75.9%
Charles McClelland run for 35 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
73.8%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-1
73.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+5
74.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charles McClelland for 5 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+6
74.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
71.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
71.9%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
74.4%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
76.6%
Ryan Coe 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 0:5178% → 86%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
77.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+12
78.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 12 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
79.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
79.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 9 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+37
78.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 37 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.1%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4815% → 28%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.2%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
85.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Will Pauling for 12 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
84.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
84.1%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+13
84.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 13 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
84.0%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
84.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 12 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
83.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.1%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
83.5%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+8
84.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 8 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
83.5%
Ben Bryant run for 5 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
72.1%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4678% → 89%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
77.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
78.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 6 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
79.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 29 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
81.6%
Malik Hornsby run for 13 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
81.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
81.7%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
89.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 19 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:5213% → 28%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+30
86.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 30 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
85.6%
Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+35
71.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
80.2%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 3 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by Cincy Eric Phillips , return for no gain to the Ark 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19FG
8 plays · -5 yds · 1:4629% → 30%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
70.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 8Similar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-5
70.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Ark 13Similar
Q3 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
72.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 0
OPP 13
-5
70.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 0
OPP 18
+4
71.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 4 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+11
75.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 11 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 0
OPP 3
-5
74.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 8Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
69.7%
Ryan Coe 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 3:1073% → 84%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
74.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
75.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+15
74.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
76.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+9
76.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
77.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+15
77.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 15 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
79.1%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 14Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
79.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
77.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+32
83.5%
Cam Little 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
14 plays · 30 yds · 2:5419% → 16%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.6%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
80.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 17 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
79.1%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
79.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+5
80.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+30
78.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charles McClelland for 30 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-12
75.8%
Ben Bryant sacked by Landon Jackson and Zach Williams for a loss of 12 yards to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 22
OPP 33
+8
77.9%
Evan Prater run for 8 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 14
OPP 25
-10
81.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 24
OPP 35
0
82.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 24
OPP 35
-5
84.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 29
OPP 40
-5
83.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 34
OPP 45
0
84.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:4587% → 87%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
86.5%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+6
87.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 6 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
87.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Ivan Pace Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 16
OWN 15
-13
87.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Ja'quan Sheppard for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 2Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 29
OWN 2
+22
86.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 22 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+30
86.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 43 yds , Tre Tucker returns for 30 yds to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · -14 yds · 0:2719% → 18%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
80.9%
Charles McClelland run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 12
OPP 39
0
81.6%
Ben Bryant sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 12 yards to the Cincy 49 Ben Bryant fumbled, recovered by Ark Jordan Domineck , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the Cincy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
2 plays · 49 yds · 0:1990% → 97%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
90.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 17 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
96.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 32 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:295% → 15%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.1%
Tre Tucker run for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
94.8%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
95.0%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
95.1%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+18
95.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 18 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
95.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 23 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
94.9%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
94.9%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
84.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 15 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26END OF GAME
14 plays · 43 yds · 5:0592% → 97%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
91.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
94.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
95.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+6
95.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
95.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 13 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
96.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
96.9%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-1
97.0%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:50
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 10:59
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q4 5:49
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 15 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com