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UNT

North Texas 14 at Miami (OH) 27

M-OH
2021 · Frisco Football Classic · Dec 23, 2021 · Toyota Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:58 · Dom Dzioban punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+14.9Pregame prior+4.2Score differential+7.8Garbage-time factor+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:59: Kenny Tracy 8 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) — M-OH win probability +2.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:32: Austin Aune 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick) — UNT win probability +4.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:55: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Rhett Williams for 20 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST down — M-OH win probability +6.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:08: Kevin Davis 5 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick) — M-OH win probability +9.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:31: Nate Muersch 11 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick) — M-OH win probability +10.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:49UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:27M-OH 4th & 5 at UNT 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:45UNT 4th & 1 at M-OH 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:06UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53M-OH 4th & 18 at M-OH 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:52M-OH 4th & 10 at UNT 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:08UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:58M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 13, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:02UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 49, down 13
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:24M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 33, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:23UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 11, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:11M-OH 4th & 20 at UNT 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−2.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:18UNT 4th & 4 at M-OH 4, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:06UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:59M-OH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:32UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:08M-OH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:31M-OH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:5139% → 39%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
61.2%
Austin Aune run for 8 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
61.2%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
61.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jason PirtleSimilar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+7
61.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 38 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 7 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:1661% → 62%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
61.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew HomerSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+31
61.3%
Keyon Mozee run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Sean-Thomas Faulkner) to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
61.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
61.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
61.6%
Graham Nicholson 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1639% → 41%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
61.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 30 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
61.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
61.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 10 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
61.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
61.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+4
61.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 4 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
61.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
61.0%
Austin Aune run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
61.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
61.3%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.2%
Isaiah Johnson 1 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0160% → 63%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
59.9%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+14
59.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
59.5%
Gabbert, Brett pass incomplete to Sorenson, Jack, PENALTY NORTHTEXAS pass interference (Faulkner, Sean-Thomas) 15 yards to the MIAMIOH46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIOH.Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
60.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 6 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+7
60.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack DeJarld for 7 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
60.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 23 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
60.7%
Kevin Davis run for 8 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+2
60.7%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
63.4%
Kenny Tracy 8 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4438% → 37%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
62.5%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
62.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the NoTex 10Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
63.0%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Khatib LylesSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
63.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 70 yds, downed at the MiaOh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:5762% → 61%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
62.0%
Keyon Mozee run for 23 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
63.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
62.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+7
62.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 7 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+11
62.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 11 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
63.3%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Grayson Murphy for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-5
62.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 17
OWN 49
0
62.3%
Darez Snider run for no gain to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 49
-1
61.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
61.1%
Dom Dzioban punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:1838% → 45%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
62.4%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+43
62.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 43 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
60.7%
Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+22
60.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 22 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
59.9%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Detraveon BrownSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
60.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for no gain to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+11
60.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 11 yds to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
59.8%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
59.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 2Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.3%
Austin Aune 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:2857% → 59%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
56.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 16 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
58.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 10 yds to the MIAMIOH 49 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (KD Davis) to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
59.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
59.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 8 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+6
58.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
58.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
58.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jeremiah Batiste for 5 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-5
57.3%
Kevin Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 18Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
58.5%
Graham Nicholson 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4144% → 45%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
55.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-31
55.1%
Austin Aune pass intercepted John Saunders Jr. return for 31 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:4762% → 71%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
61.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Rhett Williams for 20 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
61.4%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the NoTex 10Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
61.4%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
70.8%
Kevin Davis 5 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11INT
12 plays · 61 yds · 2:4433% → 37%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
66.9%
Austin Aune run for 8 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
66.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
65.9%
Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
65.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
50
+20
64.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 20 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
62.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 15 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
62.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
61.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Asher AlberdingSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-13
63.3%
Austin Aune pass intercepted Jacquez Warren return for 13 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 21 yds · 1:1069% → 71%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
69.3%
Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+21
69.9%
Kenny Tracy run for 21 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
70.6%
Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+10
71.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
50
+4
72.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Rhett Williams for 4 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-10
72.4%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Dion Novil and Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 5 yards to the MIAMIOH 49 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 44
-10
70.9%
Brett Gabbert sacked by KD Davis and Kevin Wood for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaOh 34 Brett Gabbert fumbled, forced by KD Davis, recovered by MiaOh Brett Gabbert , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2471% → 85%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
70.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, False Start (Kevin Davis) to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
70.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 6 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+51
69.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 51 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
73.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
73.4%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+8
72.5%
Brett Gabbert run for 8 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
73.6%
Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the NoTex 11Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
84.5%
Nate Muersch 11 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0217% → 16%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
82.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
82.7%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
83.9%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 66 yds, downed at the MiaOh 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5785% → 84%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
84.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 3 yds to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+5
84.7%
Darez Snider run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+1
84.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 1 yd to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
84.0%
Dom Dzioban punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5217% → 18%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
83.4%
Austin Aune run for 6 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
82.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+10
82.2%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 47 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 10 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:2685% → 87%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
84.9%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+16
86.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 16 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
87.0%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+2
88.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-6
88.2%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Dion Novil for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
87.1%
Dom Dzioban punt for 52 yds, downed at the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5214% → 12%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
85.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-2
86.1%
Austin Aune sacked by Austin Ertl for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 18Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-7
87.0%
Austin Aune sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 11Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 14
OWN 11
+4
88.2%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 49 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 4 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:4990% → 93%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
90.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 7 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
90.6%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
92.8%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
92.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+19
92.5%
Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gabriel Murphy) to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
92.9%
Gabbert, Brett pass incomplete to Walker, Jalen, PENALTY MIAMIOH holding (Vaughan, Sam) 10 yards to the NORTHTEXAS34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 20
OPP 34
0
92.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+4
93.0%
Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 16
OPP 30
-4
93.3%
Kenny Tracy run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+52
92.6%
Graham Nicholson 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:4211% → 7%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
88.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Detraveon Brown for 12 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
88.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 6
50
+9
87.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
88.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
88.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+14
89.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 14 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
87.6%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Detraveon BrownSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+18
88.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 18 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
87.7%
Isaiah Johnson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 2Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
89.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Christian LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21END OF GAME
17 plays · 86 yds · 9:0095% → 99%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
95.4%
Kenny Tracy run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+2
95.7%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+8
95.8%
Brett Gabbert run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+41
96.3%
Kenny Tracy run for 41 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.1%
Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+1
97.2%
Kevin Davis run for 1 yd to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+8
97.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 8 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
97.7%
Kenny Tracy run for 7 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+9
98.1%
Kevin Davis run for 9 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
98.5%
Kenny Tracy run for 5 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+3
98.5%
Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
98.7%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
98.8%
Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 6Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
98.9%
Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 8Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
98.9%
Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:31
Nate Muersch 11 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)
+10.9
TD · Q2 4:08
Kevin Davis 5 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick)
+9.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:55
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Rhett Williams for 20 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST down
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com