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USC

USC 14 at California 24

CAL
2021 · Week 14 · Dec 4, 2021 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q3Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.8CAL 61.8%Dario Longhetto 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 2:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:12 · Dario Longhetto 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q3Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense+1.3Pregame prior+8.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:12: Dario Longhetto 22 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +0.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:28: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 45 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +8.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:51: Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +8.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:37: Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +9.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:36: Miller Moss pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 16 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +3.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:06USC 4th & 9 at CAL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:12CAL 4th & 2 at USC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:12CAL 4th & 4 at USC 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:31CAL 4th & 2 at USC 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:12CAL 4th & 8 at USC 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:08CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:17USC 4th & 5 at CAL 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:06CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:22USC 4th & 17 at CAL 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−2.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:13USC 4th & 2 at CAL 3, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−2.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−11.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:28USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:51CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:37CAL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:36USC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1MISSED FG
23 plays · 47 yds · 14:4739% → 42%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
60.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
60.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
60.7%
Jaxson Dart sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 28Similar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
60.7%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 28Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+5
60.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+5
60.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
60.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 9 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
60.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 9 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
60.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 9 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
60.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 9 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
60.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
60.4%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
60.3%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
60.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
60.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
60.1%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
60.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Kyle Ford, broken up by Isaiah YoungSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
60.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+51
60.6%
Parker Lewis 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
57.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson III, broken up by Lu-Magia Hearns IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 7:1561% → 62%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
60.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 17 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
61.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 7 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
61.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
61.4%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
61.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
61.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 2 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+9
60.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 9 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
61.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
61.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-10
61.5%
(04:51) Garbers,Chase rush for 9 yards gain to the USC07, End Of Play PENALTY CAL Holding (Rohme,Brayden) 10 yards from USC16 to USC26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 17
OPP 26
+17
60.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 17 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
62.0%
Nikko Remigio run for 1 yd to the USC 10Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
62.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
61.8%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
61.0%
(02:12) Longhetto,Dario field goal attempt from 26 yards NO GOOD, clock 02:13 PENALTY USC Offside (Gibbs,Maximus) 4 yards from USC08 to USC04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
61.8%
Dario Longhetto 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
20 plays · 18 yds · 9:1962% → 63%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
61.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 7 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
62.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
61.9%
Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
62.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
62.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 2 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+9
61.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 9 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
62.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
62.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-10
62.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Brayden Rohme) to the USC 26Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 17
OPP 26
+17
61.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 17 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
63.0%
Nikko Remigio run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 10Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
63.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
62.5%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+29
61.8%
Dario Longhetto 25 yd FG MISSED USC Penalty, off-side (Maximus Gibbs) to the USC 4Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
61.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 16 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
60.8%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
60.8%
Brandon Campbell run for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
62.7%
Ben Griffiths punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 12:5861% → 61%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.1%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
60.9%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-6
60.9%
Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
61.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 16 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
61.6%
Chase Garbers sacked by Korey Foreman for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+18
61.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 18 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 5 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
62.7%
Chase Garbers sacked by Jacob Lichtenstein for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+1
61.6%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
61.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 51 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for no gain to the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 5:3238% → 46%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
61.6%
Chase Garbers sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+18
61.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 18 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
62.7%
Chase Garbers sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
62.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+5
62.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
62.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 24 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
60.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 6
50
-5
60.3%
Dart,Jaxson pass complete to Ford,Kyle for 7 yards to the CAL43 (Hicks,Elijah) PENALTY USC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jimmons,Liam) 5 yards from CAL50 to USC45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-5
61.2%
PENALTY USC Delay Of Game (Dart,Jaxson) 5 yards from USC45 to USC40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
61.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+15
62.3%
Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete to Manjack IV,Joseph PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Hearns III,Lu-Magia) 15 yards from USC40 to CAL45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
53.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 45 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
18 plays · 79 yds · 9:2256% → 63%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
55.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
56.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+14
56.5%
Marcel Dancy run for 14 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
57.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+39
58.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 39 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
59.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 10 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
59.2%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
63.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+5
62.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
62.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 24 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
59.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
50
-5
58.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford to the 50 yard line USC Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the USC 45Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-5
60.7%
USC Penalty, delay of game (Jaxson Dart) to the USC 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
62.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete, broken up by Luc BequetteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+15
62.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Lu-Magia Hearns III) to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
14 plays · 30 yds · 6:5871% → 75%
Q2 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+39
70.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 39 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
71.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 10 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
71.3%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
69.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 11 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
69.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
69.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 8 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+55
69.2%
Trey Paster 55 Yd Fumble Return (Dario Longhetto Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
73.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
73.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+14
73.0%
Marcel Dancy run for 14 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
74.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8MISSED FG
18 plays · 49 yds · 3:5329% → 27%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
71.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
71.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
70.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 21 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
68.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
68.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
68.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
70.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
70.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
70.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
72.5%
Parker Lewis 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
72.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 11 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.0%
pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
73.4%
Darwin Barlow run for 8 yds to the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9END OF HALF
10 plays · -3 yds · 0:4929% → 26%
Q2 0:49
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
70.9%
pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
74.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
74.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
73.7%
pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
74.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 21 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
71.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
71.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
70.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
73.9%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:5474% → 75%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
73.9%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
75.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
73.9%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Rohme,Brayden) 5 yards from CAL23 to CAL18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
73.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+5
74.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 37 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 5 yds · 13:0626% → 17%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
50
+4
73.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
74.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
73.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
73.9%
Malepeai,Vavae rush for 3 yards gain to the CAL35 (Oladejo,Femi) PENALTY USC Holding (Dedich,Justin) 10 yards from CAL38 to CAL48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+7
74.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
74.7%
USC Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jaxson Dart) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 22
50
+5
75.9%
PENALTY CAL Offside (Long,Darius) 5 yards from CAL50 to CAL45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 17
OPP 45
0
75.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Erik KrommenhoekSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
78.1%
Ben Griffiths punt for 32 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.5%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
84.4%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
83.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Brayden Rohme) to the Cal 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
83.2%
pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
16 plays · 10 yds · 10:2278% → 84%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
77.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 8 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+7
78.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 7 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
78.0%
Chase Garbers sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 19
OWN 21
-13
77.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Tripping (-13 Yards) to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 27
OWN 13
0
77.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 27
OWN 13
+12
76.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 12 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 27
OWN 13
0
77.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the USC 35Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
81.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
81.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
81.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
81.1%
USC Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Dedich) to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+7
82.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-9
82.2%
Jaxson Dart sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line USC Penalty, intentional grounding (Jaxson Dart) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 22
50
+5
84.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, off-side (Cameron Goode) to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 45
0
84.0%
pass incomplete to Erik KrommenhoekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13DOWNS
20 plays · 62 yds · 7:0722% → 17%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
78.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 1 yd to the USC 36Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
78.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyron Ware-Hudson for 1 yd to the USC 35Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+17
79.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
76.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
76.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyron Ware-Hudson for 5 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+7
76.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
75.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
75.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+18
76.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 18 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
74.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+2
75.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+8
76.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 8 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 2
OPP 3
0
80.6%
Erik Krommenhoek run for no gain to the Cal 3Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
84.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 8 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+7
84.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 7 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
84.6%
Chase Garbers sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 19
OWN 21
-8
84.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio CALIFORNIA Penalty, tripping (Monroe Young) to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 27
OWN 13
+12
83.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 12 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 27
OWN 13
0
84.1%
pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
16 plays · 9 yds · 2:0017% → 18%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
83.0%
Marcel Dancy run for 7 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
83.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 1 yd to the USC 36Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-1
83.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyron Ware-Hudson for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 35Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+17
85.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
81.1%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
81.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyron Ware-Hudson for 5 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+7
81.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
80.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete, broken up by Marqez BimageSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
80.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+18
81.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 18 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
79.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+2
80.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+8
81.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 8 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+2
84.1%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 12
0
83.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for no gain to the Cal 12Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
82.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FUMBLE
12 plays · 20 yds · 5:1316% → 15%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
84.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 7 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+2
84.1%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.4%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
82.8%
Brandon Campbell run for 7 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+16
82.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 16 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
80.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+13
82.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 13 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+11
81.2%
Brandon Campbell run for 11 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
79.9%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-5
79.9%
PENALTY USC False Start (Dedich,Justin) 5 yards from CAL10 to CAL15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+7
80.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-27
84.8%
Miller Moss sacked by Daniel Scott for a loss of 27 yards to the Cal 35 Miller Moss fumbled, recovered by Cal Lu-Magia Hearns III , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:1089% → 98%
Q4 9:47
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+19
88.5%
Chase Garbers run for 19 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
88.5%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
88.5%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
87.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 5 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
88.5%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
87.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 21 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
88.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 9 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 3:553% → 7%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
97.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 11 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
97.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+10
97.0%
Miller Moss run for 10 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.0%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
97.0%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+12
97.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 12 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Brandon CampbellSimilar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+16
96.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Brandon Campbell for 16 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
96.3%
Miller Moss run for 3 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
96.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to John Jackson III for 4 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
96.7%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+5
96.7%
Moss,Miller pass intercepted by Hearns III,Lu-Magia at CAL02 PENALTY CAL Offside (Oladejo,Femi) 5 yards from CAL22 to CAL17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
96.3%
Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
96.3%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Brandon CampbellSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+16
93.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 16 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18END OF GAME
10 plays · 8 yds · 1:3696% → 97%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
95.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 8 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+4
96.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 4 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
96.8%
Marcel Dancy run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-4
96.8%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 34
-1
97.0%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:37
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q2 9:28
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 45 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q2 4:51
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com