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BAY

Baylor 21 at Ole Miss 7

MISS
2021 · Allstate Sugar Bowl · Jan 1, 2022 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:01 · Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense+2.5Score differential−1.0Pregame prior+2.0Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:16: Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +9.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:13: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 37 yds for a TD — MISS win probability +17.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:15: Dontario Drummond run for 1 yd to the Miss 10 — MISS win probability +9.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:14: Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +30.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:24: Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +11.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 10 of 14BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:03BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:15MISS 4th & 17 at BAY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:25BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:41MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:50MISS 4th & 5 at BAY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−0.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:48MISS 4th & 26 at BAY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:55BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.0%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:53MISS 4th & 4 at BAY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:12MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:59BAY 4th & 6 at MISS 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:31MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:31BAY 4th & 9 at MISS 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:55MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:02BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:17MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−4.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:01BAY 4th & 11 at MISS 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:01MISS 4th & 7 at BAY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−1.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:09MISS 4th & 4 at BAY 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−15.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:26MISS 4th & 4 at BAY 30, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−2.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:52MISS 4th & 10 at BAY 25, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−3.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:58BAY 4th & 8 at MISS 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:38MISS 4th & 12 at MISS 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 10:16BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:13MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:14BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:24BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2858% → 58%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Matt Corral pass intercepted JT Woods return for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5742% → 42%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.1%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
58.1%
Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
58.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+1
58.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:4559% → 58%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
58.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 8 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
58.6%
Dontario Drummond run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
58.6%
Matt Corral sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+3
58.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+2
58.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 12
OPP 36
-5
58.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
58.1%
Mac Brown punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:4542% → 41%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
58.3%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+5
58.3%
Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
58.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 10Similar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+8
58.2%
Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+4
58.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 4 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+3
58.4%
Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+15
58.6%
Issac Power punt for 59 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for 15 yds to the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 37 yds · 4:3258% → 58%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
58.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
58.2%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+7
57.8%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+1
58.1%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
58.9%
Matt Corral run for 12 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
59.3%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
59.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+3
59.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+15
58.5%
Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
59.8%
Snoop Conner run for 11 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
59.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Nick Broeker) to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
59.7%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 15
OPP 21
-5
59.6%
Matt Corral sacked by Jalen Pitre and Siaki Ika for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 20
OPP 26
-6
58.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Cole Maxwell for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 26
OPP 32
+49
57.7%
Cale Nation 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4843% → 43%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
57.0%
Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+1
56.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+1
56.3%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
57.2%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7INT TD
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:1460% → 52%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
60.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+1
60.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 1 yd to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+8
59.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
60.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+1
60.8%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+4
60.1%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+7
59.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
61.0%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
61.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for no gain to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-96
51.8%
Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5749% → 47%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
49.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
49.1%
Dontario Drummond run for 10 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
50.1%
Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
49.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
48.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
46.8%
Mac Brown punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 53 yds · 3:0153% → 56%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+49
47.2%
Abram Smith run for 49 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
43.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+10
44.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 10 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
43.3%
Drew Estrada run for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+3
43.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
43.7%
Issac Power punt for 34 yds, downed at the Miss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:1945% → 42%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
44.6%
Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the Miss 8Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-4
44.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Caleb Warren) to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+18
44.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 18 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
44.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-10
44.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 13 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Luke Altmyer) to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 19
OWN 13
+2
43.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 17
OWN 15
+12
42.0%
Mac Brown punt for 51 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 12 yds to the Miss 27 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Ashanti Cistrunk) to the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4461% → 60%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
39.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
38.4%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
38.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
39.8%
Issac Power punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3543% → 42%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
43.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 7 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
43.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
42.6%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+7
42.3%
Mac Brown punt for 58 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 7 yds to the Bayl 32 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:4558% → 59%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
42.1%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
42.2%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+23
41.1%
Abram Smith run for 23 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4960% → 59%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
40.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
40.8%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
39.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
41.0%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3843% → 40%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
42.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+12
42.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 12 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
42.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 14
OWN 23
0
41.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
40.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+8
39.5%
Mac Brown punt for 45 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 8 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1462% → 61%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
38.1%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
37.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deane Leonard) to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
36.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
36.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-1
37.2%
Gerry Bohanon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
39.4%
Issac Power punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:4741% → 62%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
41.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kalon Barnes) to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
43.4%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
44.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+6
43.2%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
44.8%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
44.7%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+37
61.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 37 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18INT
12 plays · 49 yds · 5:4145% → 52%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
55.2%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+7
55.4%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+9
55.0%
Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
53.2%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
53.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
51.7%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
50
0
50.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
50
+8
51.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 8 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
50.1%
Dillon Doyle run for 3 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
50.0%
Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-9
48.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted Miles Battle return for 9 yds to the Miss 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:0657% → 60%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
57.1%
Dontario Drummond run for 1 yd to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+2
57.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Snoop Conner for 2 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+29
55.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 29 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Snoop Conner for no gain to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
59.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
62.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Al Walcott for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
62.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+4
59.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+18
58.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.4%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
64.3%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+5
62.4%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
59.8%
Cale Nation 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4746% → 77%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
53.7%
Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
52.8%
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
51.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+17
53.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
23.0%
Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21INT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:1031% → 27%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
30.5%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
27.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-16
26.5%
Luke Altmyer pass intercepted JT Woods return for 16 yds to the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:2882% → 94%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
18.4%
Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
18.2%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+6
18.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 6 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
17.6%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 2:237% → 6%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
7.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+31
7.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 31 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
8.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
7.7%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+3
7.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+5
7.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
7.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
7.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 10
OPP 25
-11
6.3%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 2:5195% → 98%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
5.1%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
4.6%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
4.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 13 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
3.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Gall) to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+8
3.0%
Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+2
2.8%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+2
2.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
2.1%
Issac Power punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:101% → 1%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+25
1.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 25 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
1.1%
Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+11
1.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
1.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 5 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
1.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-7
1.2%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 12
OWN 45
-8
1.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Brayden Utley for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:14
Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-30.6
TD · Q3 9:13
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 37 yds for a TD
+17.1
TD · Q4 7:24
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com