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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreIOWA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:38 · Matt Ruffolo 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 2:48: Matt Ruffolo 21 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +3.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:21: Arland Bruce IV run for 20 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +16.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 10:54: Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 36 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +32.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:48: Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +48.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:44: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 25 — UK win probability +25.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 13:00IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 45, tiedClose callPunted · 40.5% before the snapGo for it40.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:52IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 34, down 7Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snapGo for it36.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:44UK 4th & 18 at UK 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snapGo for it62.3%−1.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.9%average punt
- Q2 11:03IOWA 4th & 9 at UK 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snapGo for it34.2%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call34.7%88% to makePunt30.1%−4.6average punt
- Q2 2:48UK 4th & 3 at IOWA 3, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snapGo for it64.1%44% to convertField goalTheir call63.3%−0.893% to makePunt58.9%−5.2average punt
- Q2 0:38UK 4th & 8 at IOWA 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snapGo for it69.4%−1.427% to convertField goalTheir call70.8%89% to makePunt65.0%−5.9average punt
- Q3 10:31UK 4th & 7 at IOWA 47, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snapGo for it77.3%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.6%average punt
- Q3 7:47IOWA 4th & 1 at UK 11, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.6%71% to convertField goal19.8%−2.887% to makePunt10.4%−12.2average punt
- Q3 6:07UK 4th & 12 at UK 9, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snapGo for it76.3%−2.021% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.4%average punt
- Q4 14:09UK 4th & 4 at IOWA 48, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 70.0% before the snapGo for it71.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.3%−1.1average punt
- Q4 7:13UK 4th & 1 at IOWA 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.7%71% to convertField goal34.8%−6.945% to makePunt31.0%−10.6average punt
- Q4 5:58IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 43, up 4Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snapGo for it73.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.6%−0.8average punt
- Q4 3:59UK 4th & 10 at IOWA 46, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.8%30% to convertField goal26.4%−1.423% to makePunt26.0%−1.8average punt
- Q4 3:31IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 45, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 78.1% before the snapGo for it80.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%−3.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 5:32UK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.5%97% to makeGo for two62.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:21IOWA Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.6%97% to makeGo for two32.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:54IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.0%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 1:48UK Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.6%97% to makeGo for two73.4%−2.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4946% → 46%
UKDrive 2TD13 plays · 80 yds · 7:1855% → 60%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
54.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+14
55.7%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 14 yds to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
56.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Brenden Bates for 6 yds to the Iowa 9Similar
Q1 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2741% → 40%
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+3
59.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 3 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+10
59.8%
Petras, Spencer pass incomplete to LaPorta, Sam, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Corker, Yusuf) 10 yards to the IOWA27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
60.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Wan'Dale Robinson at the Kent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:4160% → 60%
IOWADrive 5FG11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3140% → 42%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
60.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+8
59.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 8 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
58.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 13 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
59.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jackson Ritter for 4 yds to the Kent 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6FG16 plays · 72 yds · 8:0858% → 67%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
58.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 16 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
62.1%
Will Levis sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 18
OPP 46
-8
61.5%
Will Levis sacked by Zach VanValkenburg for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 26
OWN 46
+34
60.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 34 yds to the Iowa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
63.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 6 yds to the Iowa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:1334% → 34%
UKDrive 8FG6 plays · 22 yds · 1:2370% → 71%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
69.6%
JuTahn McClain run for 10 yds to the Iowa 21 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Logan Lee) to the Iowa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9END OF HALF9 plays · 36 yds · 0:2230% → 29%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
70.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for 10 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
70.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 10 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
69.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Gavin Williams for 4 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
70.8%
Spencer Petras pass intercepted, touchback. Quandre Mosely return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 4:1973% → 75%
Q3 12:12
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
75.2%
Levis, Will rush for no gain to the KENTUCKY45, PENALTY IOWA offside (Waggoner, John) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11DOWNS7 plays · 69 yds · 2:3725% → 25%
UKDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1078% → 77%
IOWADrive 13TD7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4025% → 41%
UKDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 3:5364% → 69%
IOWADrive 15TD9 plays · 92 yds · 3:0933% → 71%
Q4 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+7
67.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 7 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+12
62.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 12 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+36
29.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 36 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 40 yds · 3:3440% → 41%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
40.1%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 14 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5073% → 73%
Q4 5:58
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
26.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Wan'Dale Robinson at the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18INT9 plays · 43 yds · 1:5336% → 33%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
35.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 13 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+15
30.6%
Levis, Will pass incomplete to Robinson, Wan'Dale, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Moss, Riley) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
36.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 13 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
32.5%
Will Levis pass intercepted Jermari Harris return for no gain to the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 0:2278% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD9 plays · 80 yds · 1:3332% → 90%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
32.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 7 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-7
33.1%
Will Levis sacked by Lukas Van Ness for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+17
29.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 17 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
31.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 10 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+52
26.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 52 yds to the Iowa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21INT7 plays · 35 yds · 0:5526% → 32%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 12 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+12
70.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 12 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
66.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
68.5%
Spencer Petras pass intercepted DeAndre Square return for no gain to the Kent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:48
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+48
TD · Q4 10:54
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 36 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)
-32.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:44
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 25
+25.3