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PSU

Penn State 10 at Arkansas 24

ARK
2021 · Outback Bowl · Jan 1, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:46 · Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+8.0Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor−0.6Pregame prior+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +6.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:53: Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:42: KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +11.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:29: Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal — ARK win probability +7.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:08: Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:39PSU 4th & 23 at ARK 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32ARK 4th & 9 at PSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:00ARK 4th & 3 at PSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:20ARK 4th & 2 at PSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:04PSU 4th & 10 at ARK 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:00ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:59ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:19PSU 4th & 11 at ARK 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:36ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:45PSU 4th & 13 at ARK 36, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.2%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:01PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:52ARK 4th & 1 at PSU 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−2.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−9.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:29ARK 4th & 11 at PSU 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−2.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−9.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:46PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:55PSU 4th & 4 at ARK 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−1.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:30ARK 4th & 5 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:55PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:00ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:53PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:42ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:08ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:1645% → 44%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
55.3%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
55.4%
Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
55.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+42
55.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 42 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
55.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
55.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-13
55.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Hayden Henry for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 32 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 23
OPP 32
+50
55.6%
Jake Pinegar 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2INT
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:1156% → 57%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
55.6%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
55.6%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+21
55.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 21 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+25
56.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 25 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
56.4%
Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+7
56.5%
Dominique Johnson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
56.7%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2944% → 45%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
55.7%
Parker Washington run for 6 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
55.5%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Greg Brooks Jr. return for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1356% → 56%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
56.4%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
56.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Curtis Jacobs for 0 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
56.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyson MorrisSimilar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
55.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3344% → 44%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
55.8%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-1
55.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+7
56.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 7 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
56.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:1856% → 63%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
56.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 6 yds Bryce Stephens fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
56.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
57.1%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-1
56.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+12
55.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 12 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+13
56.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
57.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
58.0%
Jefferson, KJ pass complete to Kern, Blake for 11 yards to the PENNST3, PENALTY ARKANSAS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PENNST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+3
58.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+5
58.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+5
57.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+3
57.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:4939% → 37%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.4%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
61.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+19
62.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 19 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
60.5%
Noah Cain run for 16 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
60.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the Ark 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt Sean CliffordSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
60.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
61.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
62.6%
Jordan Stout punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0063% → 62%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
63.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ GreenSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
63.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ GreenSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 10
-4
62.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 6Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 14
OWN 6
+18
61.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 54 yds , Johnny Dixon returns for 18 yds to the Ark 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
53.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:5157% → 56%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
57.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
56.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 8 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
58.4%
De'Vion Warren run for 1 yd to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
58.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 6 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-7
58.5%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Nick Tarburton for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
55.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:3646% → 49%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
54.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 25 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
52.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 15 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
51.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+17
50.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 17 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
50.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick MeigaSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
50.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
52.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
51.2%
Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 6 yds · 2:3653% → 51%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.6%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
52.3%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
53.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 2 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-9
53.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+7
51.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 10
OWN 36
-5
51.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+5
51.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 58 yds , Parker Washington returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:3148% → 50%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
52.2%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Contact (15 Yards) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
50.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 32 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
46.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
46.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-5
47.0%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+2
48.2%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 13
OPP 36
0
49.6%
Jordan Stout pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:1952% → 54%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
52.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 9 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+12
53.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
53.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
53.7%
Warren Thompson pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain to the PnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
49.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5851% → 66%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
50.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
50.8%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+14
51.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
53.9%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+14
54.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
55.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 22 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
66.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3938% → 34%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.3%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
62.0%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
63.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone LeeSimilar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+8
65.7%
Jordan Stout punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 8 yds to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:2667% → 75%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
66.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 19 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
69.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 17 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
69.8%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+2
70.0%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
69.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+1
67.7%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
70.5%
De'Vion Warren run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 24Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 17
OPP 24
-3
69.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 20
OPP 27
+9
67.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 9 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+37
75.2%
Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3629% → 26%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
70.4%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
71.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
70.7%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
71.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
73.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
74.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:3276% → 92%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+34
76.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 34 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
79.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
81.1%
Malik Hornsby run for 32 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21INT
16 plays · 65 yds · 4:2212% → 9%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick MeigaSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.1%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
90.2%
Sean Clifford run for 14 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
89.4%
Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
89.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
90.6%
Parker Washington run for 6 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
90.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick MeigaSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+7
90.9%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
90.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+13
91.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
90.3%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+5
90.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
90.6%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted, touchback. Joe Foucha return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:0094% → 96%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
94.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ GreenSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
94.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+5
94.0%
Sanders, Raheim rush for 4 yards to the ARKANSAS33, PENALTY PENNST substitution infraction 5 yards to the ARKANSAS34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
94.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
95.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
95.5%
Dominique Johnson run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-1
95.9%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 5
50
0
95.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 5
50
0
95.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:305% → 4%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
95.1%
Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
94.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Parker Washington for 3 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+13
95.0%
Christian Veilleux run for 13 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
95.1%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-10
95.2%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Joe Foucha for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 17
OWN 24
0
96.2%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
96.3%
Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24END OF GAME
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:1897% → 99%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
97.1%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
97.4%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+24
97.6%
Malik Hornsby run for 24 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
98.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+4
98.0%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+18
98.2%
Malik Hornsby run for 18 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
98.3%
Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 17
OPP 25
+17
98.5%
AJ Green run for 17 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-5
98.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
-3
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 0
OPP 16
-3
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:42
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q3 2:08
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q2 10:53
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com