2021 · Outback Bowl · Jan 1, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scorePSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:19 · Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:00: Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +6.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:53: Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:42: KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +11.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:29: Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal — ARK win probability +7.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:08: Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 12:39PSU 4th & 23 at ARK 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snapGo for it39.0%−0.27% to convertField goalTheir call39.1%51% to makePunt39.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:32ARK 4th & 9 at PSU 41, tiedClose callPunted · 60.5% before the snapGo for it60.5%32% to convertField goal60.4%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call60.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:42PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 16, tiedClose callPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it39.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:00ARK 4th & 3 at PSU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.1%52% to convertField goal60.5%−0.632% to makePunt60.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 0:20ARK 4th & 2 at PSU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.1%52% to convertField goal60.6%−0.591% to makePunt58.4%−2.7average punt
- Q2 12:04PSU 4th & 10 at ARK 36, down 7Close callPunted · 33.8% before the snapGo for it33.3%30% to convertField goal33.3%−<0.142% to makePuntTheir call33.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 11:00ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 6, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snapGo for it63.8%−1.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%average punt
- Q2 7:59ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snapGo for it58.3%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.2%average punt
- Q2 5:19PSU 4th & 11 at ARK 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snapGo for it41.2%−1.024% to convertField goalTheir call42.2%83% to makePunt37.0%−5.2average punt
- Q2 2:36ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it50.2%−2.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.6%average punt
- Q2 0:45PSU 4th & 13 at ARK 36, up 3Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 47.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.2%−1.121% to convertField goal48.4%42% to makePunt46.6%−1.7average punt
- Q3 11:01PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.0%−1.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q3 8:52ARK 4th & 1 at PSU 18, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.8%71% to convertField goal67.4%−2.479% to makePunt59.9%−9.9average punt
- Q3 6:29ARK 4th & 11 at PSU 18, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snapGo for it66.5%−2.224% to convertField goalTheir call68.6%79% to makePunt59.5%−9.2average punt
- Q3 3:46PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it23.7%−1.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%average punt
- Q4 14:55PSU 4th & 4 at ARK 40, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.0%48% to convertField goal9.2%−1.834% to makePunt9.5%−1.5average punt
- Q4 8:30ARK 4th & 5 at midfield, up 14Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:55PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 0:00ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.7%97% to makeGo for two64.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:53PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.8%97% to makeGo for two38.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:42ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.5%97% to makeGo for two65.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:08ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPSUDrive 1MISSED FG10 plays · 43 yds · 2:1645% → 44%
Q1 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+42
55.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 42 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-13
55.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Hayden Henry for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 32 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2INT7 plays · 57 yds · 3:1156% → 57%
PSUDrive 3INT2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2944% → 45%
ARKDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1356% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3344% → 44%
ARKDrive 6TD13 plays · 61 yds · 5:1856% → 63%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
56.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 6 yds Bryce Stephens fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
57.1%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-1
56.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+12
55.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 12 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
58.0%
Jefferson, KJ pass complete to Kern, Blake for 11 yards to the PENNST3, PENALTY ARKANSAS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PENNST19, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 39 yds · 2:4939% → 37%
Q2 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+19
62.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 19 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
60.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the Ark 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt Sean CliffordSimilar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
62.6%
Jordan Stout punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0063% → 62%
PSUDrive 9TD1 play · 42 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
53.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:5157% → 56%
PSUDrive 11FG9 plays · 61 yds · 2:3646% → 49%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
52.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 15 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
51.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+17
50.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 17 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
50.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 6 yds · 2:3653% → 51%
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
53.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 2 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-9
53.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+5
51.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 58 yds , Parker Washington returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13DOWNS8 plays · 48 yds · 1:3148% → 50%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
52.2%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Contact (15 Yards) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
50.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 32 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
46.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14INT5 plays · 26 yds · 0:1952% → 54%
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -3 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5851% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3938% → 34%
Q3 11:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+8
65.7%
Jordan Stout punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 8 yds to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FG10 plays · 45 yds · 4:2667% → 75%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
69.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 17 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 17
OPP 24
-3
69.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 20
OPP 27
+9
67.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 9 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3629% → 26%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
71.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
71.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
74.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD4 plays · 79 yds · 1:3276% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21INT16 plays · 65 yds · 4:2212% → 9%
ARKDrive 22PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 4:0094% → 96%
Q4 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+5
94.0%
Sanders, Raheim rush for 4 yards to the ARKANSAS33, PENALTY PENNST substitution infraction 5 yards to the ARKANSAS34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-1
95.9%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 5
50
0
95.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 5
50
0
95.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:305% → 4%
Q4 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
94.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Parker Washington for 3 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-10
95.2%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Joe Foucha for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
96.3%
Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24END OF GAME12 plays · 45 yds · 5:1897% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:42
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q3 2:08
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q2 10:53
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-8.4