2021 · Duke's Mayo Bowl · Dec 30, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreUNC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:44 · Parker White 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:11: British Brooks run for 63 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +8.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:27: Juju McDowell run for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +13.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:53: Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +16.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:24: Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 37 yds for a TD, (T. Chandler Run For Two-point Conversion) — UNC win probability +17.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:44: Parker White 22 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +3.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 12:01UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snapGo for it76.5%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.6%average punt
- Q1 9:09UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 7Close callPunted · 73.4% before the snapGo for it73.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:41UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 25, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snapGo for it67.5%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.6%average punt
- Q1 0:27SC 4th & 5 at UNC 12, up 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snapGo for it40.7%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call40.8%86% to makePunt37.6%−3.2average punt
- Q2 13:54UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt53.3%−1.7average punt
- Q2 9:14SC 4th & 16 at SC 30, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snapGo for it41.6%−2.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.9%average punt
- Q2 5:44UNC 4th & 20 at SC 23, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snapGo for it48.7%−1.69% to convertField goalTheir call50.4%70% to makePunt46.6%−3.7average punt
- Q2 0:44UNC 4th & 6 at SC 19, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snapGo for it37.2%−0.938% to convertField goalTheir call38.1%77% to makePunt32.8%−5.3average punt
- Q3 1:13SC 4th & 21 at SC 48, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snapGo for it75.6%−3.49% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q4 14:04UNC 4th & 18 at UNC 18, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snapGo for it16.4%−2.312% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.7%average punt
- Q4 7:44SC 4th & 4 at UNC 4, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snapGo for it89.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call88.7%−0.593% to makePunt83.2%−6.1average punt
- Q4 5:52UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.515% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q4 0:50SC 4th & 11 at UNC 15, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.424% to convertField goalTheir call98.0%83% to makePunt96.6%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 10:15SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.4%97% to makeGo for two25.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:45SC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick30.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call30.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:11UNC Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.5%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:27SC Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.8%97% to makeGo for two60.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:53SC Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.5%97% to makeGo for two83.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:24UNC Touchdown, down 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick26.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call26.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNCDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3781% → 79%
SCDrive 2TD5 plays · 93 yds · 1:2921% → 23%
UNCDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5977% → 76%
Q1 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4TD3 plays · 78 yds · 1:0024% → 28%
Q1 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+66
27.6%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 66 yds for a TD, (Kai Kroeger pass to Nick Muse for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4673% → 70%
Q1 5:41
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
29.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6FG9 plays · 54 yds · 5:0331% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0859% → 65%
Q2 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
42.8%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Sam HowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 3:4837% → 41%
Q2 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
38.0%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 1 yd to the SCaro 29Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
38.3%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Xavier Legette for 7 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-9
42.1%
Zeb Noland sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG8 plays · 50 yds · 3:2559% → 55%
Q2 8:27
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+34
41.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 34 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+23
41.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 23 yds to the SCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-10
41.8%
Sam Howell sacked by Zacch Pickens and Jordan Strachan for a loss of 10 yards to the SCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0944% → 64%
Q2 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
45.0%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Juju McDowell for 8 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+11
49.6%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 11 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
63.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the NCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11FG12 plays · 56 yds · 1:3641% → 44%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+14
60.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
50
+27
58.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 27 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-5
58.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jordan Tucker) to the SCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4561% → 86%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
64.4%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 7 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
67.4%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 26 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
68.8%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 23 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1720% → 37%
Q3 9:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
80.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+21
81.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 21 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
81.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 3 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+37
63.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 37 yds for a TD, (T. Chandler Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT15 plays · 23 yds · 6:0469% → 77%
Q3 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
73.8%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 3 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 8
50
+9
76.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 9 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-9
78.7%
O'Mega Blake sacked by Cedric Gray for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 21
OWN 48
0
77.1%
Kai Kroeger punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5623% → 17%
SCDrive 17FG12 plays · 77 yds · 6:0783% → 95%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
84.9%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 12 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 1:446% → 5%
SCDrive 19FG13 plays · 61 yds · 4:5096% → 100%
Q4 3:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+26
98.3%
Kevin Harris run for 11 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Collins) to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20END OF GAME4 plays · 9 yds · 0:381% → 1%
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.3%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (J.J. Jones) to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:24
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 37 yds for a TD, (T. Chandler Run For Two-point Conversion)
-17.9
TD · Q3 9:53
Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q2 2:27
Juju McDowell run for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+13.2