View as
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreORE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:33 · Michael Turk punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:29: Caleb Williams pass complete to Drake Stoops for 6 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +7.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:00: Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 55 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +9.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:35: Travis Dye run for 11 yds for a TD, (K. Hutson Run For Two-point Conversion) — ORE win probability +10.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:08: Anthony Brown pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 66 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +7.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:56: Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 34 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +5.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 13:33OU 4th & 6 at OU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snapGo for it69.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%average punt
- Q1 10:30OU 4th & 2 at ORE 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.9%57% to convertField goal68.6%−0.223% to makePunt68.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:57ORE 4th & 6 at OU 6, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snapGo for it30.3%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call30.5%91% to makePunt27.5%−3.0average punt
- Q2 13:15OU 4th & 15 at ORE 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snapGo for it66.1%−1.016% to convertField goalTheir call67.1%70% to makePunt64.2%−2.9average punt
- Q2 12:19ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 23, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it28.3%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.2%average punt
- Q2 8:00ORE 4th & 3 at midfield, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt21.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 6:20ORE 4th & 7 at OU 41, down 13Close callPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it20.6%37% to convertField goal19.9%−0.732% to makePuntTheir call20.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:53ORE 4th & 2 at OU 34, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.4%57% to convertField goal8.3%−1.147% to makePunt7.4%−2.0average punt
- Q3 0:56ORE 4th & 5 at OU 34, down 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%42% to convertField goal0.4%−0.147% to makePunt0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 11:00OU 4th & 2 at ORE 22, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.7%57% to convertField goal97.3%−0.472% to makePunt95.2%−2.5average punt
- Q4 8:56OU 4th & 5 at ORE 12, up 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%86% to makePunt95.7%−2.2average punt
- Q4 3:46OU 4th & 20 at OU 46, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q4 3:17ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 2, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 7:56OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call70.2%97% to makeGo for two70.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:29OU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.3%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:00OU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.5%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:36OU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:35ORE Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick5.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:38OU Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:08ORE Touchdown, down 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.2%97% to makeGo for two4.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:55OU Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:56ORE Touchdown, down 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.9%97% to makeGo for two2.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:46ORE Touchdown, down 16 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two3.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2168% → 67%
Q1 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
67.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 2 yds to the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2INT4 plays · 32 yds · 1:0333% → 33%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
67.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
67.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 3 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-12
67.0%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted Justin Broiles return for 12 yds to the Okla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD11 plays · 54 yds · 4:2968% → 70%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
67.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 2 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+4
67.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 4 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+9
67.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 9 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+7
67.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 7 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4FG17 plays · 66 yds · 5:4731% → 32%
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+11
68.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for 11 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
68.2%
Anthony Brown sacked by Marcus Stripling and Ethan Downs for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 16Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 0
OPP 16
+10
68.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 10 yds to the Okla 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5FG13 plays · 52 yds · 3:3568% → 71%
Q1 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
67.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Woods II for 4 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
67.5%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGON offside 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+33
68.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 18 yds to the OKLAHOMA 33 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-6
69.5%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the Oregn 14 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 16
OPP 24
+1
68.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 1 yd to the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3629% → 28%
Q2 12:19
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+24
71.6%
Tom Snee punt for 49 yds , Marvin Mims returns for 24 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD4 plays · 48 yds · 1:4173% → 81%
Q2 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Drake Stoops for 6 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 28 yds · 4:0222% → 20%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
78.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 9 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
78.4%
Anthony Brown sacked by Jalen Redmond for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+6
79.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Isaiah Brevard for 6 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+6
79.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Seven McGee for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 3
50
+6
79.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Webb for 6 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-3
78.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 47Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+6
80.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the Okla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD7 plays · 89 yds · 2:1582% → 92%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
81.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 11 yds to the Okla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-7
82.4%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the Okla 34 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+10
82.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Woods II for 10 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
92.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 55 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10DOWNS9 plays · 39 yds · 2:0210% → 10%
OUDrive 11TD7 plays · 64 yds · 1:0493% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12END OF HALF6 plays · 29 yds · 0:232% → 2%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
98.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 5 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+5
98.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 5 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
98.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+14
98.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 14 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD10 plays · 81 yds · 3:155% → 12%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
94.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 7 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+15
98.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Isaah Crocker for 15 yds to the Okla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
87.7%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds for a TD, (K. Hutson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:4793% → 98%
OREDrive 15TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:221% → 8%
OUDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0595% → 99%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
94.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 30 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+23
95.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 23 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
95.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 13 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD12 plays · 76 yds · 3:461% → 6%
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
99.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for 13 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+8
99.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 8 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Byron Cardwell for 2 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+34
94.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 34 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18FG16 plays · 53 yds · 6:5496% → 99%
Q3 0:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+15
96.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 15 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-10
97.7%
Major, Marcus rush for 8 yards to the OREGON20, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding 10 yards to the OREGON38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+14
97.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Eric Gray for 14 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+5
97.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 5 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
98.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 2 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:541% → 5%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
98.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
98.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 4 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
95.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for 30 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · -10 yds · 2:5497% → 98%
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
97.4%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd to the Oregn 43 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by Okla Caleb WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-15
97.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Okla 42Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 20
OWN 46
+47
97.8%
Michael Turk punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Seven McGee at the OKLAHOMA 7 OREGON Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:242% → 2%
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-5
97.7%
Anthony Brown sacked by Marcus Stripling and Reggie Grimes for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22END OF GAME7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5598% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:35
Travis Dye run for 11 yds for a TD, (K. Hutson Run For Two-point Conversion)
-10.9
TD · Q2 4:00
Caleb Williams pass complete to Marvin Mims for 55 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q2 10:29
Caleb Williams pass complete to Drake Stoops for 6 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
+7.7