2021 · Cheez-It Bowl · Dec 29, 2021 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:34 · Will Spiers punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 11:25: Andrew Mevis 22 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +1.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:54: Will Shipley run for 12 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +16.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:01: Brock Purdy pass intercepted for a TD Mario Goodrich return for 18 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +8.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:42: Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Mevis KICK) — ISU win probability +18.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:00: Will Shipley run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 43 — CLEM win probability +8.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 6:52CLEM 4th & 6 at ISU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snapGo for it52.4%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call52.4%91% to makePunt51.0%−1.4average punt
- Q1 5:01ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.8%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.9%average punt
- Q1 2:07CLEM 4th & 6 at ISU 42, up 3Close callPunted · 52.9% before the snapGo for it53.2%40% to convertField goal52.7%−0.530% to makePuntTheir call52.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 11:25ISU 4th & 5 at CLEM 5, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snapGo for it48.0%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call48.1%92% to makePunt43.5%−4.6average punt
- Q2 10:34CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snapGo for it49.1%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.5%average punt
- Q2 7:33ISU 4th & 10 at CLEM 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snapGo for it50.9%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call51.5%66% to makePunt47.1%−4.3average punt
- Q2 4:07CLEM 4th & 7 at ISU 34, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 51.8% before the snapGo for it51.8%37% to convertField goalTheir call51.6%−0.247% to makePunt50.7%−1.1average punt
- Q2 2:00ISU 4th & 5 at CLEM 49, down 3Close callPunted · 47.1% before the snapGo for it46.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:00CLEM 4th & 10 at ISU 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snapGo for it54.3%−1.427% to convertField goalTheir call55.7%77% to makePunt48.3%−7.4average punt
- Q3 12:33ISU 4th & 15 at ISU 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snapGo for it41.3%−4.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
- Q3 6:20CLEM 4th & 1 at ISU 29, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.5%71% to convertField goal54.5%−4.058% to makePunt46.3%−12.3average punt
- Q3 2:33ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it14.5%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q3 1:23ISU 4th & 10 at CLEM 28, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snapGo for it14.2%−0.929% to convertField goalTheir call15.1%60% to makePunt8.8%−6.3average punt
- Q3 0:00CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snapGo for it87.2%−0.452% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q4 6:55CLEM 4th & 5 at ISU 46, up 7Close callPunted · 81.3% before the snapGo for it81.7%41% to convertField goal79.0%−2.823% to makePuntTheir call80.9%−0.8average punt
- Q4 4:15ISU 4th & 19 at ISU 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it12.7%−2.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%average punt
- Q4 1:52CLEM 4th & 14 at ISU 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it88.6%−0.819% to convertField goal88.6%−0.823% to makePuntTheir call89.4%average punt
- Q4 0:33ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.6%−2.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q3 4:54CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.5%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:01CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:42ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.4%97% to makeGo for two20.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1FG17 plays · 69 yds · 8:0152% → 52%
Q1 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
48.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 5 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
48.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Swinney for 11 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+19
48.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 19 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4049% → 48%
CLEMDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4451% → 52%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
48.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Kobe Pace for 9 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
48.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 6 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
48.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 13 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
48.5%
Will Spiers punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FG12 plays · 78 yds · 5:3649% → 53%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
48.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 3 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
48.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 6 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+34
50.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 34 yds to the Clem 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
51.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 13 yds to the Clem 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4350% → 48%
Q2 10:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
51.9%
Will Spiers punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6MISSED FG9 plays · 37 yds · 2:4953% → 54%
CLEMDrive 7FG9 plays · 41 yds · 3:2050% → 53%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
50.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 11 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+13
50.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 13 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
48.1%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass incomplete, PENALTY IOWAST unnecessary roughness (Eisworth II, Greg) 15 yards to the IOWAST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
47.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 10 yds to the IowSt 25 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 1:5848% → 49%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
47.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 17 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
49.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9DOWNS17 plays · 69 yds · 1:5053% → 56%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
46.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 5 yds to the Clem 17Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
44.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 3 yds to the Clem 41Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+12
44.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 12 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+16
43.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Kobe Pace for 16 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
41.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Kobe Pace for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+9
41.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 9 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 2:2047% → 44%
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
47.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jared Rus for 8 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
47.8%
Brock, Jirehl rush for 2 yards to the IOWAST38, PENALTY IOWAST holding (Downing, Trevor) 10 yards to the IOWAST26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 15
OWN 31
-2
44.1%
Andrew Mevis punt for 46 yds , Will Brown returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD17 plays · 79 yds · 7:3155% → 77%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
44.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 6 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+11
42.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 11 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
40.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+10
41.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Kobe Pace for 10 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
38.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 9 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12INT TD5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5326% → 16%
ISUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2016% → 15%
CLEMDrive 14INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
10.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass intercepted Jake Hummel return for no gain to the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5918% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1786% → 87%
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
13.3%
Will Spiers punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD10 plays · 63 yds · 5:1315% → 33%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
15.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 15 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+15
16.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
16.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Daniel Jackson for a loss of 3 yards Daniel Jackson fumbled, recovered by IowStSimilar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+4
15.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 4 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
15.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 10 yds to the Clem 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
32.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:3280% → 83%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
19.9%
Will Shipley run for 9 yds to the Clem 34 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+9
18.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 9 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:3122% → 19%
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+9
21.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 9 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+8
20.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 8 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
21.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deon Silas for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 16Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-5
19.4%
Brock Purdy sacked by K.J. Henry for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 11Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
18.6%
Andrew Mevis punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the IowSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0890% → 94%
ISUDrive 21FUMBLE8 plays · 26 yds · 1:0814% → 8%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
13.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 8 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+9
12.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 9 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+8
9.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 8 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+1
8.4%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the IowSt 37 Brock Purdy fumbled, recovered by IowSt Brock PurdySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:42
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Mevis KICK)
+18.1
TD · Q3 4:54
Will Shipley run for 12 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q3 4:01
Brock Purdy pass intercepted for a TD Mario Goodrich return for 18 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-8.7