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MD

Maryland 54 at Virginia Tech 10

VT
2021 · New Era Pinstripe Bowl · Dec 29, 2021 · Yankee Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:12 · Connor Blumrick pass complete to Nick Gallo for 2 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Home team on offense−13.6Score differential−8.6Pregame prior−8.8Garbage-time factor−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:13: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 70 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +7.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:13: Antwaine Littleton II run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +10.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:02: Connor Blumrick run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK) — VT win probability +8.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Joseph Petrino 44 Yd Field Goal — MD win probability +7.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:48: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 32 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +7.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 10MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:44VT 4th & 3 at VT 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:02VT 4th & 9 at MD 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:31MD 4th & 4 at MD 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:41VT 4th & 5 at VT 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:13MD 4th & 4 at MD 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:35VT 4th & 4 at VT 23, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:35VT 4th & 3 at MD 18, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%−0.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:48VT 4th & 2 at VT 24, down 11
    Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:12VT 4th & 1 at VT 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.8%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:13MD 4th & 11 at VT 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:09VT 4th & 7 at VT 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:48MD 4th & 4 at VT 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:48VT 4th & 3 at MD 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−1.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:05VT 4th & 2 at MD 27, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 9:13MD Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:13MD Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:02VT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:48MD Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:18MD Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:12MD Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5635% → 35%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
34.6%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
35.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+1
35.2%
Connor Blumrick run for 1 yd to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+92
34.6%
Peter Moore punt for 55 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 92 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
16 plays · 36 yds · 7:1835% → 35%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
34.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
34.8%
Connor Blumrick run for 5 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+1
34.9%
Connor Blumrick run for 1 yd to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
35.0%
Connor Blumrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+3
34.9%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 3 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+10
34.8%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Nick Gallo for 10 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
35.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for 8 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+1
35.5%
Malachi Thomas run for 1 yd to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
35.5%
Connor Blumrick run for no gain to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+5
35.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
35.7%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Drake DeIuliis for 3 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
36.1%
Malachi Thomas run for no gain to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-5
35.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+3
35.2%
Connor Blumrick run for 3 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
34.8%
Peter Moore punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1465% → 65%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
34.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 7 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 3
OWN 14
-1
34.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 13Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
35.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tayon Fleet-DavisSimilar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+3
35.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 59 yds , Raheem Blackshear returns for 3 yds to the VTech 31 Raheem Blackshear fumbled, recovered by VTech Raheem BlackshearSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3435% → 34%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
35.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-3
35.2%
Connor Blumrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
34.1%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+2
34.2%
Peter Moore punt for 44 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1766% → 66%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
34.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 7 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+5
33.6%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
33.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 4 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+1
33.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 1 yd to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+1
33.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 1 yd to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
34.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 43 yds, downed at the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:2035% → 40%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
34.5%
Malachi Thomas run for 3 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
34.5%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Nick Gallo for 3 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
34.0%
Connor Blumrick pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+8
33.6%
Peter Moore run for 8 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
34.8%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+42
34.8%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Jaden Payoute for 42 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
37.4%
Jalen Holston run for 5 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
37.4%
Connor Blumrick run for no gain to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+2
36.2%
Connor Blumrick run for 2 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
39.5%
John Parker Romo 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
30.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 70 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5730% → 28%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
30.4%
Connor Blumrick run for 2 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+6
29.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for 6 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
28.8%
Connor Blumrick pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
28.1%
Peter Moore punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:2571% → 83%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
28.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 15 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
28.4%
Antwaine Littleton II run for 6 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
28.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 7 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
28.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 28 yds to the VTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
17.3%
Antwaine Littleton II run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:5322% → 28%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.6%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
21.4%
Connor Blumrick pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
21.1%
Connor Blumrick run for 9 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
21.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
21.7%
Malachi Thomas run for no gain to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
21.1%
Connor Blumrick run for 4 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
20.7%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Nick Gallo for 2 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
20.9%
Malachi Thomas run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
50
+1
20.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+11
19.8%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Nick Gallo for 11 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+34
20.1%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 34 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
21.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Mary 3Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.5%
Connor Blumrick run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
28.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11END OF HALF
9 plays · 60 yds · 0:4573% → 85%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
26.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 5 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+16
26.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 16 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
25.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 22 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
24.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+14
24.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 14 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+44
15.5%
Joseph Petrino 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:3879% → 84%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem OkonkwoSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+26
21.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 26 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
19.3%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 27 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
18.7%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 8 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
18.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the VTech 14Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
18.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
17.5%
Colby McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 12Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
17.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
17.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for no gain to the VTech 12Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+30
15.6%
Joseph Petrino 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4616% → 16%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
16.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
16.4%
Connor Blumrick pass incomplete to Drake DeIuliisSimilar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
16.0%
Connor Blumrick pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
15.6%
Peter Moore punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1085% → 95%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
14.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
50
+12
13.5%
Colby McDonald run for 12 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
13.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
12.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem OkonkwoSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+4
12.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 4 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+32
5.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 32 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 4
OWN 35
-15
4.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:426% → 5%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
5.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
5.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+2
5.6%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 2 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
5.4%
Connor Blumrick pass incomplete to Jaylen JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 4:1296% → 99%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
3.6%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
3.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 1 yd to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+10
3.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 10 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
3.2%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+7
3.0%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
2.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 22 yds to the VTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
2.7%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the VTech 2Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.7%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:181% → 0%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.8%
Connor Blumrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
0.4%
Connor Blumrick sacked by Nick Cross for a loss of 12 yards Connor Blumrick fumbled, forced by Nick Cross, recovered by Mary Greg Rose , return for 0 yards , return for 11 yds, (Joseph Petrino PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
17 plays · 35 yds · 6:221% → 0%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.5%
Tahj Bullock run for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
0.4%
Tahj Bullock run for 1 yd to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+21
0.4%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Luke Bussel for 21 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
0.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+10
0.4%
Jalen Holston run for 10 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
0.3%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+6
0.3%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Luke Bussel for 6 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.3%
Tahj Bullock pass incomplete to Cole BlakerSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
0.3%
Tahj Bullock run for 7 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+1
0.3%
Tahj Bullock run for 1 yd to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+8
0.3%
Tahj Bullock run for 8 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-13
0.3%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the Mary 17 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 23
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Tahj Bullock pass incomplete to Luke BusselSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 23
OPP 32
-8
0.2%
Tahj Bullock sacked by Demeioun Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 40Similar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 31
OPP 40
0
0.1%
Peter Moore punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 6:43100% → 100%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 3 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
0.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 8 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
0.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+10
0.2%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Weston Wolff for 10 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.2%
Antwaine Littleton II run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
50
+7
0.2%
Antwaine Littleton II run for 7 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
0.1%
Antwaine Littleton II run for 8 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+11
0.1%
Antwaine Littleton II run for 11 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
0.1%
Antwaine Littleton II run for 4 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
0.1%
Colby McDonald run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:260% → 0%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
0.0%
Marco Lee run for 9 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
0.1%
Marco Lee run for 3 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:13
Antwaine Littleton II run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q2 1:02
Connor Blumrick run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q3 6:48
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 32 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com