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MSST

Mississippi State 7 at Texas Tech 34

TTU
2021 · AutoZone Liberty Bowl · Dec 28, 2021 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:16 · Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior−0.6Home team on offense+35.5Score differential+32.5Garbage-time factor+10.4Blowout margin+17.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:08: Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) — MSST win probability +3.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:27: Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price — TTU win probability +5.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:13: Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +5.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:03: Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) — TTU win probability +16.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:02: Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) — TTU win probability +10.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 9:27MSST 4th & 14 at TTU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:03TTU 4th & 3 at MSST 13, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−2.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:06TTU 4th & 14 at TTU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:49MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:20TTU 4th & 4 at MSST 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:21MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:31TTU 4th & 17 at MSST 40, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13TTU 4th & 4 at MSST 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.2
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:58MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 40, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:57TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:03MSST 4th & 10 at TTU 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:06MSST 4th & 16 at TTU 31, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    19.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:38TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 39, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:16MSST 4th & 4 at TTU 47, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:40TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:08MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:03TTU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:02TTU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:47TTU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0824% → 25%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Formation (Chadarius Townsend) to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
23.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+33
24.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 33 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
24.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
24.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+8
24.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
24.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 10 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
25.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:0575% → 72%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
25.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
26.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+11
26.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
26.6%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 48Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 14
OPP 48
0
27.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 14
OPP 48
0
27.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
28.0%
Archer Trafford punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexTc 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3FG
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:1928% → 34%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
28.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+11
28.1%
Donovan Smith run for 11 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
28.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 11 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
29.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
29.6%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+12
29.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
30.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
31.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 12 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
31.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
32.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-8
32.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+7
33.2%
Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+2
33.7%
Xavier White run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
34.4%
Jonathan Garibay 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4766% → 69%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
33.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
34.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 18 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
34.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+1
34.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
34.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
35.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+18
35.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 18 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
35.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
35.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+17
31.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5233% → 33%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.9%
Kaylon Geiger run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
33.3%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
32.8%
Donovan Smith sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 21Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+8
32.8%
Austin McNamara punt for 61 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 8 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1166% → 63%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
34.5%
Will Rogers run for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
35.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
35.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-5
36.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (LaQuinston Sharp) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
37.1%
Archer Trafford punt for 53 yds, downed at the TexTc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:2436% → 42%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
35.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+12
36.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
36.8%
Xavier White run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
38.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
39.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
41.3%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
40.8%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 43Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+18
40.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 18 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
43.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
43.8%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Trey ClevelandSimilar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+2
42.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 2 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5259% → 54%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
40.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
41.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
44.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+5
45.9%
Archer Trafford punt for 39 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:4244% → 43%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
43.8%
Myles Price run for 13 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
45.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
46.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+9
45.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
47.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Travis Koontz) to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 15
OPP 38
-2
45.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 17
OPP 40
0
45.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 17
OPP 40
0
44.4%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 17
OPP 40
+1
43.1%
Austin McNamara punt for 27 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 14 Austin Williams fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyrique MatthewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1449% → 53%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
48.6%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
48.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
47.1%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Mason TharpSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
52.9%
Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0649% → 47%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
52.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5052% → 50%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
48.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
48.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 8 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
46.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
47.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 2
OWN 40
-2
50.0%
Archer Trafford punt for 43 yds , Adrian Frye returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5653% → 51%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
52.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
53.4%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
51.8%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles PriceSimilar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
51.0%
Austin McNamara punt for 36 yds , Jaden Walley returns for no gain to the MisSt 17 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:4950% → 47%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
50.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
48.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+15
51.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 15 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
48.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
49.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
50.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
53.1%
Archer Trafford punt for 37 yds, downed at the TexTc 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 95 yds · 0:4955% → 76%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+39
55.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 39 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
58.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+52
59.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 52 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.8%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:4227% → 20%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
73.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 17 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
72.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
72.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+10
73.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
72.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+15
73.1%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Thomas, Rara, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Fields, DaMarcus) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
71.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
73.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-11
74.7%
Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 16
OPP 31
-9
79.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:5783% → 97%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
82.6%
Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
83.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
50
+15
84.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 15 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
84.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+17
84.9%
Donovan Smith run for 17 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
85.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Weston Wright) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+7
85.5%
Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-8
86.1%
Myles Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 11 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mason Tharp) to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 16
OPP 21
+7
86.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
96.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18INT
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:264% → 2%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
96.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
96.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-1
96.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 48 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
97.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+9
97.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus HarveySimilar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
97.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
97.7%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Eric Monroe return for no gain to the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:3598% → 100%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
97.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+48
97.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 48 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.9%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+19
97.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 19 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
98.0%
Xavier White run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+7
98.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
99.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 30 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-10
99.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds Dillon Johnson fumbled, recovered by TexTc DaMarcus FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 2 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
99.9%
Xavier White run for 1 yd to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Dalton RigdonSimilar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 60 yds, downed at the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22END OF GAME
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:310% → 0%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
99.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+8
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+9
99.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+28
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 28 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+4
100.0%
Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+4
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+6
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 6 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+8
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:03
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)
+16.5
TD · Q3 0:02
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)
+10.6
FG · Q2 0:13
Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com