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AF

Air Force 31 at Louisville 28

LOU
2021 · SERVPRO First Responder Bowl · Dec 28, 2021 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:04 · Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Home team on offense−17.7Score differential−10.4Garbage-time factor−6.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1One-score game+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:16: Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +10.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:42: Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +9.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:30: Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +9.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:54: Haaziq Daniels 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +7.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:57: Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) — LOU win probability +36.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:34LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37AF 4th & 5 at AF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29LOU 4th & 20 at AF 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:11LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:00AF 4th & 6 at LOU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:13LOU 4th & 1 at AF 47, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:53AF 4th & 14 at LOU 39, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:04LOU 4th & 2 at AF 2, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−9.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:50AF 4th & 2 at AF 10, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:21LOU 4th & 7 at AF 48, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:28AF 4th & 4 at LOU 9, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:01AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:14AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:16LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:42AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:30LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:54AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:57LOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1051% → 51%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
50.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 7 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
51.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
51.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 7 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-6
51.5%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 41 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by LvileSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
51.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4349% → 48%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
51.3%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
51.4%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
51.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+4
51.8%
Carson Bay punt for 46 yds , Josh Johnson returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:3252% → 52%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
51.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 22 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
52.5%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line Trevion Cooley fumbled, recovered by LvileSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 15
50
0
52.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 15
50
+34
51.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 34 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
52.8%
Maurice Burkley run for no gain to the AFA 16Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
52.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-10
52.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 20
OPP 26
0
52.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+44
51.7%
James Turner 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:5948% → 54%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+40
51.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 40 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
50.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
50.8%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
51.1%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
50.7%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
50.6%
DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+9
51.1%
Dane Kinamon run for 9 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
50.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the Lvile 7Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
50.6%
Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
45.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3848% → 47%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
47.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+3
46.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
46.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:4854% → 61%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
46.1%
DeAndre Hughes run for 8 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
45.5%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
39.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:3441% → 48%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
40.6%
Trevion Cooley run for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
41.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+7
40.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
40.7%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+10
39.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+8
39.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
39.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
39.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 10
-3
38.5%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+12
37.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 12 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.1%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1856% → 67%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.0%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
43.6%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
41.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
41.2%
Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
40.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+3
42.0%
DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+64
32.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q2 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+15
46.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & GOAL
50
-5
43.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Kickoff Out of Bounds (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0859% → 74%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
41.2%
Dane Kinamon run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 20 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
40.6%
Brandon Lewis run for 14 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
38.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 13 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
38.5%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
36.9%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
37.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+9
37.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 9 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
34.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+12
33.4%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 12 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
33.3%
DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.6%
Haaziq Daniels 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11END OF HALF
13 plays · 61 yds · 0:4428% → 33%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+31
27.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 31 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
29.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
28.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Downing for 9 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
29.5%
Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+3
27.5%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
31.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
32.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HarrellSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+18
32.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 18 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:5974% → 78%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.1%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
25.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 27 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
22.2%
DeAndre Hughes run for 13 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
21.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-1
20.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-6
20.2%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
21.8%
Carson Bay punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 78 yds · 6:2123% → 20%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
23.4%
Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
23.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
23.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 13 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
24.1%
Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-5
23.6%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+13
21.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 13 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
23.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 19 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
23.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 9 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 1
OPP 12
-4
23.5%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 16 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by LvileSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+6
22.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
22.5%
Malik Cunningham sacked by TD Blackmon for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
21.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
20.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
20.3%
Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5885% → 85%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
15.2%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+5
15.0%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+1
14.8%
DeAndre Hughes run for 1 yd to the AFA 10 DeAndre Hughes fumbled, recovered by AFASimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
14.9%
Carson Bay punt for 41 yds, downed at the Lvile 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:2619% → 19%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
18.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-1
18.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
18.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HarrellSimilar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+14
17.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 14 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
18.9%
Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FG
18 plays · 66 yds · 9:3389% → 88%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
10.5%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
10.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 11 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
9.4%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-6
8.9%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+15
9.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 15 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
7.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
7.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 10 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
6.9%
DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
6.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
6.4%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
5.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+2
5.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
5.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the Lvile 14Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+1
5.0%
Dane Kinamon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+4
4.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
11.9%
Matthew Dapore 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:1012% → 46%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
11.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
11.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 6 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-5
12.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+17
10.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
50
+4
12.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+24
9.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 24 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
46.3%
Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18END OF GAME
11 plays · 20 yds · 2:2582% → 94%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
18.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+10
17.4%
Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
9.4%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
9.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
8.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-2
5.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 13
OPP 26
-1
5.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:57
Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick)
+36.6
TD · Q2 9:16
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 5:30
Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com