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HOU

Houston 17 at Auburn 13

AUB
2021 · TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl · Dec 28, 2021 · Protective Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:04 · Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 2 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense−3.4Garbage-time factor−2.3Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Blowout margin−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 12:12: Ben Patton 35 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +10.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:52: TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) — AUB win probability +17.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:41: TJ Finley pass incomplete — AUB win probability +13.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:27: Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +41.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:36: Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Aub 24 — HOU win probability +15.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 11HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:55HOU 4th & 1 at AUB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:52AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:56HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:30AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:21HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:08AUB 4th & 2 at HOU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.4%−1.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:58HOU 4th & 12 at AUB 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:10AUB 4th & 9 at HOU 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:36HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:35AUB 4th & 13 at HOU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:12AUB 4th & 9 at HOU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:12HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:04AUB 4th & 1 at HOU 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−3.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−12.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:03AUB 4th & 6 at HOU 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    61.0%−3.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:17HOU 4th & 8 at AUB 34, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:47AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%−3.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:47AUB 4th & 9 at HOU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:42AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.4%−5.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:46HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:52AUB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:27HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 6:0451% → 53%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
49.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 10 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
49.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 1
OWN 32
-6
49.4%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-5
49.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+18
49.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
49.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 13 yds to the Aub 41 Alton McCaskill fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
49.5%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
49.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 3 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
49.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 2 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+27
49.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 27 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.5%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the Aub 5Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
47.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 5 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3848% → 47%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
47.8%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
47.7%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
47.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
47.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Erwin at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5153% → 52%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
47.2%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
47.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
47.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
47.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1048% → 47%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
47.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+10
47.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 10 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
47.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
47.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:5953% → 54%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
46.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 3 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+24
46.8%
Clayton Tune run for 24 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
45.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+3
45.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 3 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+4
45.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
45.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6DOWNS
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:0746% → 47%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
46.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 5 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
46.4%
Malcolm Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
47.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+3
46.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+10
46.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
47.2%
Demetris Robertson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+10
46.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 10 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+5
46.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
47.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
47.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
0
46.8%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 2
OPP 20
0
46.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:0255% → 62%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
44.8%
Clayton Tune run for 13 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
44.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
44.3%
Alton McCaskill run for 11 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
42.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 7 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+16
41.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 16 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
41.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-10
41.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+8
40.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 8 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
40.4%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+52
38.5%
Dalton Witherspoon 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:3639% → 43%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
39.0%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
38.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 4 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+51
38.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 51 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
41.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 11 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
41.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
41.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
39.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
43.3%
Ben Patton 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:1960% → 63%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
40.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 17 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
37.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 8 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-8
36.3%
Clayton Tune sacked by Eku Leota for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+3
37.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
37.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:5539% → 38%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
38.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 30 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
40.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 5
50
+5
41.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
42.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
42.1%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-3
40.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
38.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
36.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:3839% → 47%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
40.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 15 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
41.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 32 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
43.2%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 14
OPP 23
0
41.2%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 14
OPP 23
0
39.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+5
36.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
46.9%
Ben Patton 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:4356% → 55%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
44.4%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+17
44.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 17 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
42.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
41.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
42.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
44.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 6:1445% → 66%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
45.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+41
45.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 41 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
51.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 7 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
51.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
47.9%
TJ Finley run for no gain to the Houst 24 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by Aub Keiondre JonesSimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
45.8%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 2 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-7
49.9%
TJ Finley sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+20
48.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 20 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
50.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Houst 8Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
49.8%
John Samuel Shenker run for 1 yd to the Houst 7Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 0
OPP 7
-5
47.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 12Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
65.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1238% → 36%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
62.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 20 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
59.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
63.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for no gain to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 15
OWN 37
-15
63.8%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Nehemiah Pritchett return for no gain to the Aub 37 AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5263% → 64%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
62.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+14
65.3%
Malcolm Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
66.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-1
67.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
66.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:03
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
63.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 10 yds, downed at the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:4337% → 35%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.7%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
60.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+25
63.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 25 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
60.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 2 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
58.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
60.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+6
64.9%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Aub 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:2368% → 71%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
68.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
69.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
71.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
71.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 1
50
-1
72.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
71.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:5433% → 38%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
67.4%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-2
68.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 8 HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (-4 Yards) to the Houst 4Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 12
OWN 4
+23
70.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
66.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 21 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
61.9%
Seth Green pass intercepted Chandler Wooten return for no gain to the Houst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5475% → 70%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.1%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
74.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
73.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
70.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0832% → 83%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
67.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
66.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 1 yd to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
68.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
67.1%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
61.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+20
62.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 20 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
59.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
17.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3531% → 29%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
30.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
33.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
31.1%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
29.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:1686% → 95%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
13.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
11.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
12.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
7.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 14
OPP 25
-2
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:27
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-41.9
TD · Q3 3:52
TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)
+17.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:36
Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Aub 24
-15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com