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USU

Utah State 24 at Oregon State 13

ORST
2021 · Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl · Dec 18, 2021 · SoFi Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-7.6ORST 43.7%Connor Coles 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 10 · Q3 10:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:05 · Connor Coles 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−10.0Pregame prior+8.7Score differential−3.2Garbage-time factor−3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:42: Cooper Legas pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 62 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +5.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:24: Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +8.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:05: Connor Coles 25 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +7.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:49: Cooper Legas pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +15.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:30: Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 38 — USU win probability +6.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:24USU 4th & 14 at USU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:02ORST 4th & 3 at USU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:30USU 4th & 10 at USU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:51ORST 4th & 13 at ORST 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:40ORST 4th & 10 at USU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:49ORST 4th & 8 at USU 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:19USU 4th & 15 at USU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05USU 4th & 8 at ORST 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−10.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:55ORST 4th & 3 at USU 26, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%−1.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−10.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:35ORST 4th & 15 at USU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−2.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−7.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:18USU 4th & 13 at USU 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−3.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:45ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 42, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:02ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:42USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:24USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:49USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:4271% → 71%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
70.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
70.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 39 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
70.9%
Jesiah Irish run for 20 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:0629% → 29%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
70.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 19 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
70.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 8 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
70.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+4
70.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 4 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
70.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
70.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Calvin Tyler Jr.Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
71.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 9
OPP 46
-5
71.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
71.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 yds, downed at the OrgSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2471% → 71%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+20
71.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 5 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Cam Lampkin) to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
71.4%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
71.4%
Trey Lowe run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-5
71.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Teagan Quitoriano) to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
71.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
71.3%
Luke Loecher punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:0829% → 29%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
71.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+12
71.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 12 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
71.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+15
71.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Carson Terrell for 15 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
71.1%
Logan Bonner run for no gain to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
71.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+5
71.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keonte Schad) to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
71.2%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted, touchback. Akili Arnold return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 4:1872% → 73%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
71.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
72.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+20
71.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 20 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
72.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 11 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
73.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-6
73.2%
Chance Nolan sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 14
50
+11
72.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 11 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
72.7%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3028% → 27%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
71.9%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-10
71.9%
Savon Scarver run for a loss of 10 yards to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+10
72.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Carson Terrell for 10 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
72.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 35 yds , Anthony Gould returns for no gain to the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2973% → 72%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
72.7%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-11
72.7%
Chance Nolan sacked by Hale Motu'apuaka for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 21
OWN 15
+8
72.2%
Trey Lowe run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 13
OWN 23
+2
71.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 41 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 2 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
66.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 62 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 5:2568% → 69%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
67.9%
Anthony Gould run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
68.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
68.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 21 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
69.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+6
69.4%
Trey Lowe run for 6 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
69.7%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
69.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+8
69.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 8 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
69.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Musgrave) to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 15
OPP 24
0
69.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 15
OPP 24
0
68.9%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 15
OPP 24
0
67.9%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Luke MusgraveSimilar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+5
66.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
68.6%
Everett Hayes 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 3:5031% → 44%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
68.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 11 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
68.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 9 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-1
67.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
68.2%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
67.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 4 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
66.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+12
66.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kitan Oladapo) to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
66.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
65.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 16 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
65.2%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
56.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:1260% → 59%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
59.7%
Chance Nolan run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
60.4%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Byron Vaughns) to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
62.0%
Chance Nolan sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+6
59.3%
Trey Lowe run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 11
50
-5
60.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Brandon Kipper) to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+8
59.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 8 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 8
OPP 47
+1
59.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 36 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 46 UTAH ST Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the UthSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:1641% → 42%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
58.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+18
58.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 18 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
56.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 11 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.9%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
56.2%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-5
56.8%
Cooper Legas sacked by Keonte Schad for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
58.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
58.0%
Champ Flemings run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 4:5044% → 56%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Justin McGriff for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
55.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
55.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
54.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 9 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
52.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
53.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tyjon Lindsey) to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
52.3%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+17
52.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Derek Wright for 17 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
51.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 11 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
50.7%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
51.1%
Elelyon Noa run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
50.3%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
49.7%
Cooper Legas sacked by Andrzej Hughes-Murray for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
51.4%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
43.7%
Connor Coles 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:5047% → 46%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
46.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 15 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
48.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 22 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
51.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-2
50.8%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
48.4%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
46.2%
Everett Hayes 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:5660% → 82%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
40.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+34
38.6%
Derek Wright pass complete to Cooper Legas for 34 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
36.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 18 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
35.6%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
35.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
35.1%
Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.0%
Cooper Legas run for no gain to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 4:5523% → 23%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.5%
Jesiah Irish run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
22.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
22.6%
Chance Nolan run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
21.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 16 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
22.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 6 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
22.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 3 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+8
22.3%
Jack Colletto run for 8 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
22.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 17 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
22.6%
Chance Nolan run for 3 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+1
22.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the UthSt 7Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-9
21.0%
Chance Nolan sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 15
OPP 16
+34
22.9%
Everett Hayes 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:2378% → 80%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
22.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
21.2%
Cooper Legas sacked by Keonte Schad and Andrzej Hughes-Murray for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Keonte Schad) to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
20.2%
Cooper Legas pass intercepted Kitan Oladapo return for no gain to the OrgSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:2022% → 23%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
21.6%
Chance Nolan run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
22.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
22.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 8 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
23.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 16 yds Tre'Shaun Harrison fumbled, forced by Justin Rice, recovered by UthSt AJ VongphachanhSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1284% → 85%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
16.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-4
13.8%
Cooper Legas sacked by Champ Flemings and Jaydon Grant for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
14.9%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
14.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 51 yds , Anthony Gould returns for no gain to the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:0916% → 13%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
16.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 9 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+20
17.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
18.0%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Deshaun FenwickSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
17.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Joshua Gray) to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+3
16.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-5
15.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Nous Keobounnam) to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 17
OWN 37
+5
13.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+11
12.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 11 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22FUMBLE
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:5991% → 97%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
9.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
8.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 7
50
+11
8.4%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 11 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
5.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+14
5.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Alex Austin) to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
5.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+7
5.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
4.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
3.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 0
OPP 2
+1
3.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Champ Flemings) to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 0
OPP 1
+1
3.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd Calvin Tyler Jr. fumbled, forced by Jaydon Grant, recovered by OrgSt Omar SpeightsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:385% → 4%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
5.0%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
4.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
4.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
4.0%
Chance Nolan pass intercepted Hunter Reynolds return for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -12 yds · 1:1197% → 97%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 14
OWN 28
-4
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 24
-4
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:49
Cooper Legas pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q2 4:24
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-8.9
FG · Q3 10:05
Connor Coles 25 yd FG GOOD
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com