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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 31 at Toledo 24

TOL
2021 · Bahamas Bowl · Dec 17, 2021 · Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:24 · TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:58: Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:54: Mike DiLiello run for 17 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +24.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:24: Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 59 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:08: Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 13 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +18.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:08: Timeout MIDDLE TENN, clock 01:08 — MTSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:45TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:54MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:53TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:00MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:50TOL 4th & 9 at MTSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:52TOL 4th & 1 at MTSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−2.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:24MTSU 4th & 19 at MTSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:07TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:52MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:50TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:05TOL 4th & 8 at MTSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:59MTSU 4th & 9 at TOL 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−1.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:24TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:45MTSU 4th & 4 at TOL 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−1.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:54TOL 4th & 3 at MTSU 25, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%−1.0
    66% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−8.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:53MTSU 4th & 3 at TOL 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−3.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:56TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:15MTSU 4th & 9 at TOL 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:09TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 27, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−2.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:34MTSU 4th & 5 at TOL 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:30MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:52TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:11TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:58MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:54MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:24MTSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:08TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:0080% → 79%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
79.7%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
79.6%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
79.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
79.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
79.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
79.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:4021% → 21%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
79.4%
Jaylin Lane run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
79.3%
Frank Peasant run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
79.1%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+4
79.0%
Jaylin Lane run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+3
78.9%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 3 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
78.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5679% → 78%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
78.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-2
78.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
78.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+8
78.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3922% → 22%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
78.2%
Martell Pettaway run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
78.2%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
78.3%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+8
78.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 47 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 8 yds to the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:0078% → 78%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+30
78.1%
Bryant Koback run for 30 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
78.5%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+21
78.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 21 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
78.3%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+4
78.1%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+1
77.9%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
77.5%
Thomas Cluckey 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:0823% → 30%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
77.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
76.5%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to CJ Windham for 4 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
76.7%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
76.7%
Mike DiLiello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-5
77.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Martell Pettaway) to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+15
77.1%
Vattiato, Nick pass incomplete, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (Hines, Jamal) 15 yards to the MIDDLETENN43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
76.2%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
76.3%
Nick Vattiato run for 10 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
75.8%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+23
75.8%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 23 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
75.3%
Amir Rasul run for 3 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
75.1%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+14
75.4%
Mike DiLiello run for 14 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.8%
Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the Toled 7Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
74.2%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the Toled 6Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
70.2%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3071% → 75%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.4%
DeMeer Blankumsee run for 15 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
72.0%
Micah Kelly run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
72.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Bryce Harris) to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+6
70.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
71.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 2 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
71.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 6 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 13:52
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+40
75.7%
Dequan Finn run for 40 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
Q2 13:52
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-15
74.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dequan Finn) to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 2:0126% → 25%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
73.9%
Martell Pettaway run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 28 Martell Pettaway fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Martell PettawaySimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+6
74.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Amir Rasul for 6 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+5
74.2%
DiLiello, Mike pass incomplete, PENALTY TOLEDO offside (Givhan, Nate) 5 yards to the MIDDLETENN39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-11
72.8%
Nick Vattiato sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 14
OWN 28
-5
74.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 19
OWN 23
0
74.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds for a 1ST down , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 23 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalynn Williams) to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:1375% → 79%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-11
74.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (-11 Yards) to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
79.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 90 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0621% → 30%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
78.9%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 24 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
77.7%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 17 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.8%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
76.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Marcus Greer) to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+23
78.2%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 23 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
76.7%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-5
76.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Marcus Greer) to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+17
76.8%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 17 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.9%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4374% → 72%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
74.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+4
73.6%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
73.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
72.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 11
OWN 29
+3
72.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 54 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 3 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0329% → 28%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
71.1%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to CJ Windham for 11 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
70.5%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
69.8%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-8
69.9%
Nick Vattiato sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 12
OWN 29
-4
71.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 yds , Devin Maddox returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 21 Devin Maddox fumbled, recovered by Toled Devin MaddoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5073% → 71%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
72.6%
Bryant Koback run for 17 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
73.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vinny Sciury) to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+4
72.4%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+5
72.7%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
72.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
71.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:0831% → 32%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
69.3%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-5
69.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Steven Losoya III) to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+25
69.3%
Frank Peasant run for 25 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-49
67.9%
Mike DiLiello pass intercepted Samuel Womack return for 49 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5574% → 74%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
74.4%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+3
74.2%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
73.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
74.2%
Thomas Cluckey 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16END OF HALF
12 plays · 55 yds · 0:4627% → 27%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.4%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
73.4%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 14 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
71.6%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Brad Anderson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+18
71.6%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to JaMichael Thompson for 18 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
72.3%
Vattiato, Nick pass incomplete to Pierce, Jarrin, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McDonald, Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
71.2%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
71.1%
Nick Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+37
73.4%
Zeke Rankin 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:4527% → 27%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.3%
Jaylin Lane run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
72.6%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+19
73.2%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 19 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
70.3%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
70.1%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to JaMichael ThompsonSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
70.9%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
72.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2874% → 71%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
73.5%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+10
73.2%
Finn, Dequan pass incomplete, PENALTY MIDDLETENN holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
73.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Tyler Long) to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 15
OWN 9
0
73.0%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the Toled 9 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by Toled Dequan FinnSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 15
OWN 9
0
72.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 15
OWN 9
0
71.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 15
OWN 9
+14
71.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 43 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 14 yds to the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2631% → 29%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
69.4%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
68.0%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
69.2%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
71.4%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:2973% → 74%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
73.4%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+5
75.1%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
75.6%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+10
74.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 10 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
75.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
76.1%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+3
76.8%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
76.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
76.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+4
75.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 4 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
73.6%
Thomas Cluckey 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:3629% → 62%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.4%
Amir Rasul run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.7%
Nick Vattiato run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
69.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Lance Robinson) to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+6
71.7%
Mike DiLiello run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+15
69.9%
Vattiato, Nick pass sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MIDDLETENN29 (Hines, Jamal), fumble by Vattiato, Nick recovered by MIDDLETENN at MIDDLETENN29, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (Hines, Jamal) 15 yards to the TOLEDO47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
67.5%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 13
50
0
70.2%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 13
50
+10
71.4%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 10 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+4
69.6%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
67.2%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
65.2%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+7
66.9%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
64.9%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
63.2%
Jaylin Lane run for 1 yd to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
38.4%
Mike DiLiello run for 17 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:3448% → 46%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
47.8%
Bryant Koback run for 23 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
52.4%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
51.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
48.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
46.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:3058% → 64%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
42.3%
Nick Vattiato run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
40.3%
Nick Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
41.3%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 8 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
38.5%
Martell Pettaway run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
35.9%
Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+8
35.8%
Frank Peasant run for 8 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
34.3%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+3
33.5%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
32.7%
Jaylin Lane run for no gain to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
35.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5541% → 38%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
41.0%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+7
42.0%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
42.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
41.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+8
39.1%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
37.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:3174% → 90%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.3%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
10.3%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 59 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3011% → 10%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
10.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 1 yd to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
10.4%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted Zaylin Wood return for no gain to the Toled 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5491% → 95%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
8.9%
Amir Rasul run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+7
8.9%
Mike DiLiello run for 7 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
8.4%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
4.6%
Zeke Rankin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28TD
19 plays · 83 yds · 3:074% → 20%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
3.8%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
3.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 3 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+4
3.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
3.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
3.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Mitchell Berg) to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+9
3.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 9 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+6
3.1%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
3.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 4 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+11
2.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 11 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
2.7%
Dequan Finn sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+16
1.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 16 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
1.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 11 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
1.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
1.4%
Dequan Finn run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
19.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 13 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:3695% → 95%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 14
OWN 47
-4
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Mike DiLiello run for 17 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-24.8
TD · Q4 1:08
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 13 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q4 6:24
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 59 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com