Try the model
HOU

Houston 20 at Cincinnati 35

CIN
2021 · Week 14 · Dec 4, 2021 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:56 · Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior+11.9Home team on offense+14.6Score differential+4.8Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:06: Jerome Ford run for 79 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +2.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:02: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +11.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:04: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 21 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:38: Jerome Ford run for 42 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:06: Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:55HOU 4th & 15 at CIN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:00HOU 4th & 3 at CIN 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:40HOU 4th & 12 at CIN 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:27HOU 4th & 3 at CIN 45, down 1
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:55CIN 4th & 23 at CIN 2, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−3.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:04HOU 4th & 13 at CIN 43, down 1
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:38CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.7
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:56HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 20, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:39HOU 4th & 17 at HOU 28, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:26CIN 4th & 1 at HOU 45, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−1.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:11HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 39, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:34CIN 4th & 9 at midfield, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:07HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 36, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:07CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 36, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:03HOU 4th & 6 at CIN 41, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:16CIN 4th & 8 at midfield, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:38CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:23HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:06CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:02CIN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:04CIN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:38CIN Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:06HOU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:4922% → 22%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
78.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 15 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
78.2%
Alton McCaskill run for 18 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
77.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 22 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
77.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
77.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-6
77.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Curtis Brooks and Jabari Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+37
77.6%
Dalton Witherspoon 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:0277% → 78%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
77.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 17 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
77.3%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+17
77.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 17 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
77.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 17 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
78.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 25 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:0022% → 26%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
77.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
77.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+9
77.6%
Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
77.2%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-2
77.0%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+14
77.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 14 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
76.5%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+14
76.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 14 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
75.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
75.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marcus Brown) to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 5
OPP 16
+16
73.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
76.7%
Jerome Ford run for 79 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
78.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the Houst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5FG
15 plays · 44 yds · 7:0823% → 25%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
76.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+8
76.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
75.7%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
75.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
50
+11
74.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 11 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-8
74.8%
Clayton Tune sacked by Joel Dublanko for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 18
OPP 47
+10
75.2%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
74.7%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+5
75.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
73.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tank Jenkins) to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+1
74.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 19
OPP 36
0
74.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 19
OPP 36
+7
74.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+46
74.6%
Dalton Witherspoon 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:2276% → 75%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+19
75.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 19 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
76.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 13 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q2 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
76.1%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
75.5%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Houst 5Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 0
OPP 5
+23
74.7%
Christian Lowery 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:2927% → 28%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
73.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+23
73.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Seth Green for 23 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
71.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
71.5%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
71.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
72.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:2374% → 72%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
73.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
73.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-5
72.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Cooper) to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 13
OWN 12
-10
72.9%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Logan Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 2Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 23
OWN 2
0
72.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 50 yds, downed at the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 3:3929% → 28%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
70.9%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
70.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
70.5%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
69.9%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 14
OPP 44
-9
70.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Ahmad Gardner for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 23
OWN 47
-5
71.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 28
OWN 42
+10
71.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 10 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 18
OPP 48
+5
71.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
72.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 20 yds, downed at the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2273% → 73%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
72.7%
Jerome Ford run for 9 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
73.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
72.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
72.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
72.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5073% → 84%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.7%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+44
72.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 44 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
75.5%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
75.5%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+4
74.3%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+11
72.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Marcus Jones) to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
80.8%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Joel Dublanko return for 9 yds to the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:3384% → 90%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
84.0%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
90.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 21 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 2:0412% → 11%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-7
88.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 17
OWN 21
-5
88.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 16Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 22
OWN 16
+4
88.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
89.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:5291% → 97%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
91.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+18
91.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 18 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
96.6%
Jerome Ford run for 42 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:404% → 3%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.3%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-8
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Houst Dennis BardwellSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
97.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4997% → 98%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
97.1%
Jerome Ford run for 12 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
97.3%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
97.7%
Tre Tucker run for 3 yds to the Houst 49 Tre Tucker fumbled, forced by Marcus Jones, recovered by CincySimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
97.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
97.6%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:493% → 2%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
97.4%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-2
97.4%
Clayton Tune sacked by Joel Dublanko for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 5
50
-11
97.9%
Clayton Tune sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 16
OWN 39
0
98.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1798% → 99%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.4%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
98.5%
Jerome Ford run for 18 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for no gain to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
98.8%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 9
50
0
98.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jerome FordSimilar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 9
50
0
98.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 7:191% → 4%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
98.7%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
98.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jake HerslowSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+15
98.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Arquon Bush) to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
98.8%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-1
98.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+7
98.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+7
98.9%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
98.9%
Clayton Tune sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
99.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+53
99.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 53 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.8%
Clayton Tune run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jowon Briggs) to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-10
98.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cam'Ron Johnson) to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
99.2%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:2997% → 98%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
97.4%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+10
97.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-5
97.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
97.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:421% → 1%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+24
99.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 24 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
99.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 10 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
99.1%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
99.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jake HerslowSimilar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-7
99.2%
Clayton Tune sacked by Myjai Sanders and Marcus Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:4399% → 99%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.7%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
98.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-1
98.7%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 8
50
+14
99.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 14 yds to the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:091% → 1%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
99.0%
Chandler Smith run for 12 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Chandler Smith run for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:02
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q3 11:04
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 21 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)
+6
TD · Q3 7:38
Jerome Ford run for 42 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com