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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreORE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:04 · Tom Snee punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:47: Tavion Thomas 2 Yd Run (Jadon Redding Kick) — UTAH win probability +1.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:16: Devin Lloyd 34 Yd Interception Return (Jadon Redding Kick) — UTAH win probability +4.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Dalton Kincaid 11 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Team PAT failed) — UTAH win probability +10.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jadon Redding 50 Yd Field Goal — UTAH win probability +0.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:33: TJ Pledger 4 Yd Run (Cameron Rising Run for Two-Point Conversion) — UTAH win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 12:59UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt59.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:51ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 44, down 7Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it37.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:32UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snapGo for it62.6%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%average punt
- Q1 1:37ORE 4th & 24 at ORE 6, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snapGo for it28.8%−2.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.1%average punt
- Q2 12:00ORE 4th & 7 at UTAH 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snapGo for it28.6%−0.436% to convertField goalTheir call28.9%64% to makePunt24.3%−4.6average punt
- Q2 6:03UTAH 4th & 1 at ORE 42, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.9%70% to convertField goal72.8%−3.030% to makePunt73.2%−2.6average punt
- Q2 4:04ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snapGo for it22.9%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%average punt
- Q3 10:32ORE 4th & 12 at UTAH 24, down 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.622% to convertField goalTheir call6.4%68% to makePunt3.8%−2.5average punt
- Q3 9:06UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 32, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%average punt
- Q3 6:59ORE 4th & 19 at ORE 5, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it3.1%−2.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q3 1:53ORE 4th & 4 at UTAH 38, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%48% to convertField goal0.2%−0.238% to makePunt0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:54UTAH 4th & 2 at ORE 29, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.8%−0.158% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:47UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.8%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:16UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.1%97% to makeGo for two67.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:33UTAH Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick99.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:21UTAH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:17ORE Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1TD11 plays · 61 yds · 3:5951% → 54%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
50.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 5 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
50
+13
51.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 13 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
51.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 22 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+15
51.8%
Rising, Cameron pass incomplete to Dixon, Jaylen, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Wright, Mykael) 15 yards to the OREGON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4547% → 46%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
52.9%
Brown, Anthony rush for 1 yard to the OREGON27, PENALTY UTAH offside 5 yards to the OREGON31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+5
54.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 5 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+10
54.5%
Tom Snee punt for 49 yds , Britain Covey returns for 10 yds to the UTAH 46 OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (DJ James) to the Utah 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0055% → 55%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
54.9%
Pledger, TJ rush for 5 yards to the UTAH37, PENALTY UTAH holding (Ford, Nick) 10 yards to the UTAH22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+13
54.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 13 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+3
55.3%
Michael Williams punt for 53 yds , Seven McGee returns for 3 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4INT TD4 plays · 15 yds · 1:0944% → 40%
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Isaah Crocker for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -14 yds · 2:2940% → 37%
Q1 3:25
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
61.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 6 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-12
62.0%
Brown, Anthony pass complete to Hutson, Kris for 8 yards to the OREGON33, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Thornton, Dont'e) 12 yards to the OREGON13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 17
OWN 13
-7
62.0%
Anthony Brown sacked by Jonah Elliss for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 6Similar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 24
OWN 6
+2
63.2%
Tom Snee punt for 41 yds , Britain Covey returns for 2 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6INT4 plays · 16 yds · 1:4265% → 66%
OREDrive 7MISSED FG7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4437% → 34%
Q2 14:19
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+19
62.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Seven McGee for 19 yds to the Utah 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8INT12 plays · 44 yds · 6:1368% → 74%
Q2 10:34
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+6
69.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Theo Howard for 6 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+14
71.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 14 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+12
71.8%
Cameron Rising run for 12 yds to the Oregn 30 Cameron Rising fumbled, forced by Trikweze Bridges, recovered by UtahSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
73.7%
Cameron Rising pass intercepted Verone McKinley III return for no gain to the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3129% → 27%
UTAHDrive 10TD19 plays · 74 yds · 3:3774% → 91%
Q2 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+12
74.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
75.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 7 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
79.8%
Rising, Cameron pass incomplete to Kuithe, Brant, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (James, DJ) 5 yards to the OREGON36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-8
78.8%
Cameron Rising sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+29
78.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 29 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1011% → 11%
UTAHDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0592% → 92%
OREDrive 13FG12 plays · 51 yds · 4:2311% → 8%
Q3 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+14
89.7%
Brown, Anthony pass incomplete to Franklin, Troy, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Bishop, Cole) 14 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
90.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 14 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-4
90.8%
Anthony Brown sacked by Cole Bishop for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 24Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
92.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Devon Williams, broken up by Cole BishopSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1894% → 94%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the Utah 28 Tavion Thomas fumbled, forced by Noah Sewell, recovered by Utah Tavion ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 2:037% → 5%
UTAHDrive 16TD4 plays · 45 yds · 0:2195% → 99%
OREDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 28 yds · 4:331% → 0%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+16
99.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for 16 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
99.2%
Anthony Brown sacked by Hauati Pututau and Van Fillinger for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-8
99.4%
Anthony Brown sacked by Tennessee Pututau for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+13
99.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Isaah Crocker for 13 yds to the Utah 39Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
99.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Troy Franklin, broken up by Clark Phillips IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD12 plays · 62 yds · 6:27100% → 100%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 5 yds to the Utah 43Similar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
99.7%
Bernard, Micah rush for 8 yards to the OREGON33, PENALTY UTAH holding (Olaseni, Bamidele) 10 yards to the UTAH49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+18
99.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 18 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
99.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Tavion Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD15 plays · 90 yds · 5:040% → 0%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
99.9%
UTAH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Thomas Yassmin) to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 5 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Byron Cardwell for 6 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Isaah Crocker, broken up by Mika TafuaSimilar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+17
99.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 17 yds to the Utah 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devon Williams) to the Utah 38Similar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
99.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Isaah Crocker for 33 yds to the Utah 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20END OF GAME9 plays · 24 yds · 4:33100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
Dalton Kincaid 11 Yd pass from Cameron Rising (Team PAT failed)
+10.7
TD · Q1 4:16
Devin Lloyd 34 Yd Interception Return (Jadon Redding Kick)
+4.1
TD · Q3 6:33
TJ Pledger 4 Yd Run (Cameron Rising Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+3.9