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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadLAF aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreLAF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:26 · C.Bein punts 35 yards to LAF 11, Center-AF. Fair catch by S.Hannah.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:18: M.David rushed to LAF End Zone for 16 yards. M.David for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — AF win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:24: H.Daniels rushed to LAF End Zone for 2 yards. H.Daniels for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — AF win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:57: S.Simpson rushed to AF End Zone for 3 yards. S.Simpson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — LAF win probability +2.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: LAF has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:50: Timeout — AF win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:28: H.Daniels rushed to LAF End Zone for 19 yards. H.Daniels for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — AF win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LAF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 8:30AF 4th & 1 at LAF 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%71% to convertField goal98.0%−0.175% to makePunt97.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:18LAF 4th & 7 at AF 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%37% to convertField goal2.0%−<0.145% to makePunt2.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:52LAF 4th & 11 at LAF 43, down 14Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%average punt
- Q2 7:28AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 3:48AF 4th & 1 at LAF 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.7%71% to convertField goal95.5%−0.375% to makePunt94.6%−1.2average punt
- Q3 13:05AF 4th & 7 at AF 28, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
- Q3 3:26AF 4th & 8 at LAF 46, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.134% to convertField goal96.2%−0.523% to makePuntTheir call96.7%average punt
- Q4 14:05LAF 4th & 23 at LAF 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.0%−1.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q4 11:50AF 4th & 13 at AF 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.1%−0.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q4 10:22LAF 4th & 4 at LAF 18, down 14Close callPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.7%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4LAF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:03AF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:31AF Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:10LAF Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.6%97% to makeGo for two3.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:24AF Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick98.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:57LAF Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.4%97% to makeGo for two3.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:28AF Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAFDrive 1TD10 plays · 61 yds · 5:1599% → 99%
Q1 12:07
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
98.9%
B.Roberts rushed to LAF 47 for 5 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 47.Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.9%
H.Daniels rushed to LAF 46 for 1 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 46.Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+17
98.8%
B.Roberts rushed to LAF 29 for 17 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 29.Similar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
98.7%
E.Michel rushed to LAF 26 for 3 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 26.Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+10
98.5%
H.Daniels rushed to LAF 10 for 10 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 10.Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.7%
M.David rushed to LAF End Zone for 10 yards. M.David for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 2DOWNS8 plays · 40 yds · 2:431% → 2%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.6%
A.Angelos pass complete to LAF 25. Catch made by Z.Saturn at LAF 25. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by AF at LAF 34.Similar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
98.5%
A.Angelos pass complete to LAF 39. Catch made by J.Young at LAF 39. Gain of 23 yards. Tackled by AF at AF 38.Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
98.3%
A.Angelos steps back to pass. A.Angelos pass incomplete intended for Z.Saturn.Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
98.3%
A.Angelos steps back to pass. A.Angelos pass incomplete intended for J.Sutton.Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
98.4%
A.Angelos steps back to pass. A.Angelos pass incomplete intended for Z.Saturn.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3TD10 plays · 65 yds · 4:4398% → 99%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
98.4%
H.Daniels steps back to pass. H.Daniels sacked at LAF 30 for -5 yards (D.Washington)Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+12
98.3%
B.Lewis rushed to LAF 18 for 12 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 18.Similar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
98.3%
H.Daniels rushed to LAF 11 for 3 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 11.Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.5%
H.Daniels rushed to LAF End Zone for 7 yards. H.Daniels for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 4TD16 plays · 83 yds · 6:112% → 3%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
98.3%
R.Montie steps back to pass. R.Montie pass incomplete intended for J.Hull.Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+24
98.3%
J.Sutton rushed to LAF 44 for 24 yards. Tackled by AF at LAF 44.Similar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-6
98.2%
R.Montie steps back to pass. R.Montie sacked at LAF 33 for -6 yards (C.Humphrey)Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 21
OWN 33
+5
98.1%
R.Montie pass complete to LAF 33. Catch made by Z.Saturn at LAF 33. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by AF at LAF 38.Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+5
98.1%
R.Montie pass complete to LAF 38. Catch made by J.Young at LAF 38. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by AF at LAF 43.Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 11
OWN 43
+15
98.0%
R.Montie pass complete to LAF 43. Catch made by J.Young at LAF 43. Gain of 15 yards. Tackled by AF at AF 42.Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+7
97.9%
R.Montie pass complete to AF 46. Catch made by T.Hranicka at AF 46. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by AF at AF 39.Similar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
97.7%
R.Montie pass complete to AF 30. Catch made by J.Young at AF 30. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by AF at AF 23.Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
97.6%
S.Davis steps back to pass. S.Davis pass incomplete intended for K.Rodgers.Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+23
96.7%
R.Montie pass complete to AF 23. Catch made by J.Young at AF 23. Gain of 23 yards. J.Young for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4797% → 98%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
96.9%
H.Daniels pass complete to AF 36. Catch made by D.Cormier at AF 36. Gain of yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 41. PENALTY on LAF-C.Burr, Defensive Targeting, 15 yards, accepted. The Replay Official reviewed the targeting and the play was overturned. H.Daniels pass complete to AF 36. Catch made by D.Cormier at AF 36. Gain of 23 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 41.Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
96.9%
B.Roberts rushed to LAF 34 for 7 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 34.Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-4
96.8%
H.Daniels scrambles to LAF 31 for -4 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 31.Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+11
96.4%
H.Daniels rushed to LAF 20 for 11 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 20.Similar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
97.7%
M.David rushed to LAF End Zone for 16 yards. M.David for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD9 plays · 40 yds · 1:1498% → 99%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
97.7%
B.Roberts rushed to LAF 34 for 6 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 34.Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
97.6%
H.Daniels pass complete to LAF 29. Catch made by M.David at LAF 29. Gain of 17 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 12.Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.0%
H.Daniels rushed to LAF End Zone for 2 yards. H.Daniels for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
99.0%
B.Roberts rushed to AF 41 for yards. Tackled by LAF at AF 41. PENALTY on AF-AF, Chop Block, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+10
98.9%
O.Fattah rushed to AF 28 for 10 yards. Tackled by LAF at AF 28.Similar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+40
98.8%
C.Bein punts 40 yards to LAF 32, Center-AF. Fair catch by S.Hannah.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 8TD11 plays · 68 yds · 5:041% → 4%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.8%
A.Angelos steps back to pass. A.Angelos pass incomplete intended for LAF. PENALTY on LAF-G.Barclay, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+15
98.8%
A.Angelos pass complete to LAF 33. Catch made by M.Gilbert at LAF 33. Gain of 15 yards. Tackled by AF at LAF 48.Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+17
98.7%
A.Angelos pass complete to LAF 48. Catch made by J.Young at LAF 48. Gain of 17 yards. Tackled by AF at AF 35.Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
98.6%
A.Angelos pass complete to AF 35. Catch made by M.Gilbert at AF 35. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by AF at AF 28.Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+20
98.6%
A.Angelos pass complete to AF 28. Catch made by M.Gilbert at AF 28. Gain of 20 yards. Tackled by AF at AF 8.Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.9%
S.Simpson rushed to AF End Zone for 3 yards. S.Simpson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT13 plays · 29 yds · 4:2497% → 97%
Q3 5:25
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
96.9%
H.Daniels pass complete to AF 42. Catch made by M.David at AF 42. Gain of 10 yards. M.David ran out of bounds. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion and the play was upheld.Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
97.1%
B.Roberts rushed to LAF 44 for 4 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 44.Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+35
96.7%
C.Bein punts 35 yards to LAF 11, Center-AF. Fair catch by S.Hannah.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 10PUNT12 plays · 33 yds · 4:114% → 4%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
96.3%
A.Angelos pass complete to LAF 11. Catch made by J.Hull at LAF 11. Gain of 0 yards. J.Hull FUMBLES, forced by M.Bugg. Fumble RECOVERED by LAF-LAF at LAF 12. LAF FUMBLES, out of bounds.Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+14
96.4%
A.Angelos pass complete to LAF 14. Catch made by J.Young at LAF 14. Gain of 14 yards. Tackled by AF at LAF 28.Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.0%
PENALTY on LAF-E.Rogowski, Unsportsmanlike Conduct / Offense, 14 yards, accepted.Similar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+43
96.3%
A.Angelos pass complete to LAF 14. Catch made by J.Young at LAF 14. Gain of 43 yards. Tackled by AF at AF 43.Similar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-12
95.4%
A.Angelos steps back to pass. A.Angelos sacked at LAF 45 for -12 yards (J.Jackson; K.Pescaia)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 45
-1
96.3%
A.Angelos scrambles to LAF 44 for -1 yards. Tackled by AF at LAF 44.Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 23
OWN 44
0
96.2%
A.Angelos steps back to pass. A.Angelos pass incomplete intended for Z.Saturn.Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 23
OWN 44
+33
96.3%
J.Trestik punts 33 yards to AF 23, Center-LAF. Fair catch by M.David.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 2:0897% → 97%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.3%
H.Daniels steps back to pass. H.Daniels pass incomplete intended for D.Cormier.Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
97.3%
B.Roberts rushed to AF 30 for -3 yards. Tackled by LAF at AF 30.Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
97.1%
H.Daniels steps back to pass. H.Daniels pass incomplete intended for D.Cormier.Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+58
96.9%
C.Bein punts 58 yards to LAF 12, Center-AF. Downed by E.Castonguay.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:194% → 4%
Q4 11:03
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+5
95.9%
R.Montie scrambles to LAF 18 for 5 yards. R.Montie ran out of bounds.Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
96.1%
A.Angelos steps back to pass. A.Angelos pass incomplete intended for Z.Saturn.Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+50
96.2%
J.Trestik punts 50 yards to AF 32, Center-LAF. Downed by A.Ntantang.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD8 plays · 73 yds · 3:4497% → 99%
Q4 9:39
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+29
97.4%
M.David rushed to LAF 20 for 29 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 20. PENALTY on AF-D.Cormier, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
97.6%
B.Roberts rushed to LAF 36 for 4 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 36.Similar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
97.6%
B.Roberts rushed to LAF 25 for 5 yards. Tackled by LAF at LAF 25.Similar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.4%
H.Daniels rushed to LAF End Zone for 19 yards. H.Daniels for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 14INT5 plays · 36 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q4 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+24
99.5%
R.Montie pass complete to LAF 31. Catch made by T.Martin at LAF 31. Gain of 24 yards. Tackled by AF at AF 45.Similar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.5%
R.Montie steps back to pass. R.Montie pass incomplete intended for T.Martin.Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 14
OPP 49
0
99.5%
R.Montie pass INTERCEPTED at AF 49. Intercepted by C.Taylor at AF 49. C.Taylor ran out of bounds. PENALTY on AF-AF, Personal Foul / Defense, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:57
S.Simpson rushed to AF End Zone for 3 yards. S.Simpson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-2.8
TD · Q4 6:28
H.Daniels rushed to LAF End Zone for 19 yards. H.Daniels for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+1.8
TD · Q2 0:24
H.Daniels rushed to LAF End Zone for 2 yards. H.Daniels for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+1.5