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FRES

Fresno State 40 at San José State 9

SJSU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2021 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.8SJSU 30.4%Matt Mercurio 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 9:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:52 · Matt Mercurio 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense+0.3Score differential+0.0Pregame prior−20.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 9:52: Matt Mercurio 31 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:54: Juan Rodriguez 5 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick) — FRES win probability +6.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:32: Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 45 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +8.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:13: Cesar Silva 43 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +5.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:14: Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 29 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +8.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:52SJSU 4th & 14 at FRES 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:11FRES 4th & 15 at SJSU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:18SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:05FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:36SJSU 4th & 8 at FRES 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:25SJSU 4th & 10 at FRES 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:13FRES 4th & 10 at SJSU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:50SJSU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:17SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 31, down 24
    Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:48FRES 4th & 9 at SJSU 40, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:25SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 14, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:57SJSU 4th & 3 at FRES 9, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:16FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 15, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:58SJSU 4th & 5 at FRES 13, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:04FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:14FRES Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:29FRES Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:0228% → 30%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
27.6%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
27.6%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+13
27.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 13 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
27.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+16
27.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 16 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
27.6%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
27.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+10
27.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 10 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
27.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Nick Nash for 16 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
27.6%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
27.7%
STARKEL, Nick pass up the middle incomplete intended for CANAAN, Jackson thrown to the FST0. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on GATES, Elijah enforced 7 yards to the FST2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
27.7%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
27.7%
run for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
27.6%
Nick Starkel sacked by Arron Mosby for 0 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
30.4%
Matt Mercurio 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:4870% → 70%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
30.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 13 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
30.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
30.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+7
30.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 7 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
30.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 4 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
30.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 13 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
29.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. for 2 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+19
29.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 19 yds to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
29.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 9 yds to the SJSt 2Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
29.9%
Jalen Cropper run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1231% → 33%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
30.9%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+16
30.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 16 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
31.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 5 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
32.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
31.8%
Nick Starkel run for 2 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
32.9%
Nick Starkel sacked for 0 yards to the SJSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3469% → 67%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
30.7%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-2
30.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
31.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 10
OPP 44
-5
32.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ryan Boehm) to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
32.7%
Carson King punt for 47 yds, downed at the SJSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4232% → 31%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
32.0%
Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+1
31.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
31.4%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
31.3%
Will Hart punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1369% → 67%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
31.5%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
31.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
31.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
33.2%
Carson King punt for 53 yds, downed at the SJSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7SF
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
32.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 8 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+4
32.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
32.6%
Nick Starkel sacked by David Perales and Kevin Atkins for 0 yards to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 22
OWN 2
+2
32.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 2 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
29.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 7 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:5133% → 32%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+40
33.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 40 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
34.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.1%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
33.1%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
32.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
32.2%
Matt Mercurio 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:3866% → 75%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
34.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 14 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
33.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
32.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+33
32.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 33 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
31.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
31.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) to the SJSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the SJSt 6Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
25.2%
Juan Rodriguez 5 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:5926% → 28%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
26.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
26.3%
STARKEL, Nick pass to the left incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Kairee thrown to the SJS25. PENALTY FST Roughing the Passer on PERALES, David enforced 15 yards from the SJS24 to the SJS39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
27.2%
Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
27.4%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+10
26.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
28.1%
Nick Nash run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-2
28.2%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:2376% → 84%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
24.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
15.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 45 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:0218% → 20%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
18.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (DaRon Bland) to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
19.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
19.8%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+27
19.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 27 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
20.0%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
19.8%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
19.0%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
20.2%
Matt Mercurio 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
17.5%
HAENER, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for RIVERS, Ronnie thrown to the SJS45. PENALTY FST Holding on AKINGBULU, Alex enforced 10 yards from the FST33 to the FST23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:4382% → 86%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
18.4%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
18.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+14
18.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 14 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
17.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+10
17.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 10 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
17.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+1
17.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 1 yd to the SJSt 19Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-2
17.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 21Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 21
-5
19.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
13.9%
Cesar Silva 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:1814% → 15%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+31
14.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 31 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
15.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Nick Nash for 2 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
15.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 1
50
0
15.4%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 1
50
0
14.8%
Will Hart punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 2:3688% → 97%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
12.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Harmon) to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
11.8%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
11.5%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+6
11.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
11.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 22 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
3.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 29 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:514% → 4%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
4.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 10 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
4.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
4.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 3 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
4.4%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
3.9%
Will Hart punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:2997% → 98%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
3.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
3.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+16
3.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 16 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
2.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 9 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
2.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
2.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
2.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
2.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
2.3%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the SJSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
2.3%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
2.5%
Carson King punt for 39 yds, downed at the SJSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:233% → 2%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
2.7%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+6
2.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+7
2.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 7 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
2.8%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
2.8%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
2.8%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
2.3%
Will Hart punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Zane Pope at the FrsSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:5698% → 100%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
2.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+35
2.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 35 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
2.0%
Jalen Cropper run for 22 yds to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 13 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
0.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 15 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+31
0.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 31 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
0.4%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
0.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 7 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
0.3%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 3
OPP 9
0
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
0.4%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+2
0.4%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+5
0.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete pass complete to Erik Brooks for 5 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
0.3%
Carson King punt for 30 yds, downed at the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
0.2%
STARKEL, Nick pass to the left incomplete dropped by DEESE, JR., Derrick thrown to the FST30. PENALTY FST Roughing the Passer on BRIDGES, Devo enforced 15 yards from the FST45 to the FST30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 12 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 5 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 5
OPP 13
0
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
11 plays · 54 yds · 6:58100% → 100%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
0.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
0.2%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Erik Brooks for 5 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+10
0.2%
Jaylen Henderson run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
0.2%
Jordan Wilmore run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
0.2%
Jordan Wilmore run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+15
0.2%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Harmon) to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.2%
Jordan Wilmore run for 2 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+9
0.2%
Jordan Wilmore run for 9 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.2%
Jaylen Henderson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-1
0.2%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-3
0.1%
Jaylen Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:32
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 45 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 5:14
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 29 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q2 4:54
Juan Rodriguez 5 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com