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USU

Utah State 35 at New Mexico 10

UNM
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2021 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:37 · Peyton Dixon run for no gain to the UthSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.5Pregame prior−29.4Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:42: Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 27 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +1.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:48: Logan Bonner pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 39 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +3.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:09: Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 36 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +5.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:56: Bobby Wooden run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 24 — UNM win probability +2.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:19: Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 76 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +2.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:56UNM 4th & 23 at UNM 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05USU 4th & 8 at USU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:50UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37UNM 4th & 1 at USU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:00USU 4th & 2 at USU 26, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:50UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:25UNM 4th & 3 at USU 49, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:03UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:45UNM 4th & 1 at USU 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:09USU 4th & 11 at USU 48, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:42USU 4th & 1 at USU 37, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:55UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:04UNM 4th & 3 at USU 24, down 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:28USU 4th & 24 at USU 22, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:52USU 4th & 10 at UNM 29, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:57UNM 4th & 13 at UNM 48, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:16USU 4th & 10 at USU 21, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:54USU 4th & 6 at UNM 29, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:42USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:48USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:09USU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:19USU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:57USU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:18UNM Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:2717% → 18%
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-9
17.3%
Bobby Wooden run for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 19
OWN 22
-1
17.5%
Bryson Carroll pass complete to Trace Bruckler for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 20
OWN 21
-3
17.8%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 18Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 23
OWN 18
-2
17.9%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 45 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3782% → 81%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
18.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
18.3%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
18.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
18.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 40 yds , returns for no gain to the NMex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0519% → 19%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
18.6%
Peyton Dixon run for 2 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-2
19.0%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 19Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+8
19.2%
Connor Genal pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 8 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
19.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:5580% → 82%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
19.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+32
19.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 32 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
19.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+27
18.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 27 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:4919% → 20%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
19.1%
Peyton Dixon run for 3 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
19.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+3
19.4%
Peyton Dixon run for 3 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
19.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+8
20.0%
Peyton Dixon run for 8 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
20.2%
Peyton Dixon run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+5
20.4%
Peyton Dixon run for 5 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
20.3%
Peyton Dixon run for 3 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
20.2%
Peyton Dixon run for no gain to the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2381% → 80%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
19.5%
Deven Thompkins run for 2 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+1
19.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+5
20.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+50
20.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 50 yds , Andrew Erickson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5520% → 20%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
20.2%
Bobby Wooden run for 6 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
20.3%
Peyton Dixon run for 7 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
20.4%
Bobby Wooden run for 1 yd to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-3
20.4%
Austin Erickson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+8
19.8%
Connor Genal run for 8 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
20.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:4680% → 84%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
20.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 14 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
19.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 9 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+15
19.4%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Joey Noble) to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
15.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 39 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0217% → 17%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
16.7%
Bryson Carroll pass complete to Bobby Wooden for 12 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
17.4%
Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
17.3%
Peyton Dixon run for no gain to the NMex 48Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+3
16.8%
Bobby Wooden run for 3 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
16.8%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:5884% → 91%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
16.0%
Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 11Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+5
16.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offsides (Bryce Santana) to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+6
15.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 6 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
16.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offsides Pass Interference on ODUMS, A.J. enforced ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
15.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 4 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
14.9%
Logan Bonner run for 4 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
15.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 8 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
14.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 11 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
9.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 36 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5312% → 11%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.7%
Bobby Wooden run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
11.3%
Bryson Carroll run for no gain to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
11.0%
Peyton Dixon run for no gain to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
10.9%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 56 yds, downed at the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4191% → 94%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
8.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 2 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
8.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+76
6.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 76 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 25 yds · 4:224% → 3%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
4.3%
Bryson Carroll pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
4.1%
Bryson Carroll pass complete to Bobby Wooden for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 21Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+16
3.7%
Peyton Dixon run for 16 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.9%
Connor Genal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
4.5%
DIXON, Peyton rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the UNM44 (RICE, Justin). PENALTY USU Offsides on GILLIAM, Cash enforced 5 yards from the UNM37 to the UNM42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+15
3.4%
Bryson Carroll pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 15 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
3.7%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 48 fumbled, recovered by NMex Bryson CarrollSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-2
3.4%
Peyton Dixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 17
50
+15
3.7%
UTAH ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Byron Vaughns) to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
4.2%
Connor Genal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
4.0%
Connor Genal pass complete to Austin Erickson for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
2.5%
Bobby Wooden run for 4 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-23
2.5%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 23 yards to the UthSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:3097% → 98%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
3.3%
BONNER, Logan pass up the middle incomplete intended for BOWLING, Brandon broken up by PEEK, Patrick at the UNM10. PENALTY UNM Offsides on HARRIS, Justin enforced 5 yards from the USU49 to the UNM46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 5
OPP 46
0
3.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
3.0%
Logan Bonner sacked by Joey Noble for 0 yards to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-1
2.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to John Gentry for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
3.1%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
1.6%
DIXON, Peyton rush to the right for a gain of 15 yards to the UNM35 (REYNOLDS, Hunter), out of bounds. PENALTY UNM Holding on STAPLEY, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the UNM20 to the UNM10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+3
1.6%
Peyton Dixon run for 3 yds to the NMex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4896% → 97%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
3.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
3.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 6 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
2.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
3.1%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Andrew Erickson at the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:273% → 2%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
2.9%
Peyton Dixon run for 4 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
2.6%
Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+4
2.5%
Connor Genal run for 4 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.4%
Connor Genal pass complete to Bobby Wooden for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
2.3%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 27 fumbled, recovered by NMex Kyle StapleySimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
2.1%
Connor Genal pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 9 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
2.2%
Peyton Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
2.0%
Connor Genal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
2.0%
Connor Genal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
2.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:5198% → 99%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
2.0%
Logan Bonner sacked by Jaden Phillips for 0 yards to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+4
1.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+15
2.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
50
+8
1.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 8 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+33
1.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 33 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
1.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
1.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 10Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
1.0%
Justin McGriff 10 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:371% → 1%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.9%
Bryson Carroll run for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
0.9%
Bryson Carroll pass complete to Bobby Wooden for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
0.9%
Peyton Dixon run for 7 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
0.9%
Bobby Wooden run for 5 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
0.8%
Bryson Carroll run for 9 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
0.9%
Bryson Carroll pass complete to Austin Erickson for 14 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
0.7%
Peyton Dixon run for 4 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
0.7%
Peyton Dixon run for 3 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
0.5%
Bryson Carroll run for no gain to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
0.6%
Andrew Shelley 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.6%
Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
0.6%
Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
0.6%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 31 fumbled, recovered by UthSt Logan BonnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-15
0.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on ALI'IFUA, Demytrick enforced (-15 Yards) to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 14:28
4TH & 24
OWN 22
0
0.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 35 yds , Andrew Erickson returns for no gain to the NMex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
0.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+8
0.5%
Andrew Peasley run for 8 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.5%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Joey Noble for 0 yards to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+6
0.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 6 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+3
0.4%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
0.4%
Connor Coles 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
0.3%
Bryson Carroll pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
0.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
0.3%
Bobby Wooden run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-1
0.2%
Bobby Wooden run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
0.2%
Connor Genal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
0.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
0.3%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-10
0.2%
GENTRY, John rush to the right for a gain of 10 yards to the USU39 (REED II, Jerrick). PENALTY USU Holding on BUCHANAN, Parker enforced 10 yards from the USU29 to the USU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+2
0.2%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+12
0.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 39 yds , Andrew Erickson returns for 12 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:320% → 0%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
0.2%
Bryson Carroll pass complete to Blake Wells for 7 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
0.2%
Peyton Dixon run for 2 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
0.2%
Peyton Dixon run for 2 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
0.1%
Peyton Dixon run for 2 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+23
0.2%
Peyton Dixon run for 23 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Bobby Wooden run for no gain to the UthSt 12Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
0.3%
Kyle Jarvis 12 Yd pass from Bryson Carroll (Andrew Shelley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
John Gentry run for 6 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+36
0.2%
Andrew Peasley run for 36 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.2%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
0.2%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-4
0.2%
Cooper Legas run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+6
0.2%
John Gentry run for 6 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:09
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 36 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q2 13:48
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 39 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-3.6
TD · Q2 5:19
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 76 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com