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NEV

Nevada 52 at Colorado State 10

CSU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Julian Diaz punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Home team on offense−58.8Score differential−40.6Garbage-time factor−20.4Pregame prior+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:16: Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +1.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:48: Devonte Lee run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +10.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:24: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +5.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:50: Trey McBride run for 69 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:39: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 66 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:24CSU 4th & 2 at NEV 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:24CSU 4th & 2 at NEV 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:42CSU 4th & 19 at CSU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:42CSU 4th & 19 at CSU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:03NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:15CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:35NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 17, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:15NEV 4th & 6 at CSU 13, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:50CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 31, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:26NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 47, up 24
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:26CSU 4th & 2 at NEV 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−3.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:41CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 43, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:50NEV 4th & 10 at CSU 43, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:44CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 46, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:06NEV 4th & 14 at CSU 36, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:43CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 47, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:05CSU 4th & 4 at NEV 15, down 45
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 28, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:11NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:16NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:48NEV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:24NEV Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:50CSU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:39NEV Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:10NEV Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:19NEV Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4162% → 63%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
37.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
37.7%
Devonte Lee run for 24 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
37.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for no gain to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
37.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+27
37.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 27 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4738% → 38%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
37.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 21 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
37.9%
David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
37.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 7 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+1
38.0%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
37.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
37.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
36.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:2536% → 35%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
36.4%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
36.5%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
36.6%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
36.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 11 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
36.7%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
36.7%
Todd Centeio sacked by Kameron Toomer for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 12
50
0
36.5%
Todd Centeio sacked by Tristan Nichols and Sam Hammond for 0 yards to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
35.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
35.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3966% → 66%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
34.5%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+9
34.5%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
34.4%
sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 25 Carson Strong fumbled, recovered by Nevad Tory Horton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+2
34.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
34.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
33.8%
Julian Diaz punt for 50 yds , Dante Wright returns for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4834% → 33%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
34.3%
David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
34.2%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+17
34.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 17 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
35.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 2 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
35.1%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 5
50
-5
35.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Cameron Butler) to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
34.6%
Todd Centeio sacked by Sam Hammond for 0 yards to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+12
32.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 12 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:2768% → 80%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
32.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+10
32.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 10 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
31.9%
Devonte Lee run for 13 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
30.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 27 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
30.3%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+13
30.4%
Toa Taua run for 13 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
30.3%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+10
30.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 10 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.7%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5323% → 22%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
22.9%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the ColSt 29 fumbled, recovered by ColSt Todd CenteioSimilar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
22.2%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted return for no gain to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:3181% → 88%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
19.1%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-2
17.0%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+9
17.3%
Devonte Lee run for 9 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
17.0%
Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
11.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:2712% → 13%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
11.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 27 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
12.6%
Ty McCullouch run for 11 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
12.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 23 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2288% → 88%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
12.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 2 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
12.5%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
12.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
12.3%
Julian Diaz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12FUMBLE
11 plays · -6 yds · 2:5411% → 9%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
10.7%
Todd Centeio run for 7 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
10.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
11.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+4
11.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
11.5%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
11.2%
Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-5
11.2%
CENTEIO, Todd pass to the right complete for 20 yards to MCBRIDE, Trey caught at the NEV32 and advanced to the NEV13 (CLAIBORNE, JoJuan;HENLEY, Daiyan). PENALTY Before the snap, CSU Illegal Formation on WILLIAMS, Gary enforced 5 yards from the NEV33 to the NEV38. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-15
11.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 22
OWN 47
-10
10.5%
CENTEIO, Todd pass to the right complete for 19 yards to BUTLER, Cam caught at the NEV34 and advanced to the NEV34 (CLAIBORNE, JoJuan). PENALTY CSU Holding on REDDY, Cam enforced 10 yards from the CSU47 to the CSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 32
OWN 37
0
8.2%
Todd Centeio sacked for 0 yards to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
8.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13FG
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:2691% → 91%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
8.7%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
8.8%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+5
9.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 5 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
9.2%
Brandon Talton 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:558% → 10%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
7.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
7.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 14 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
8.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
8.2%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 5
50
0
9.5%
Todd Centeio sacked by Daniel Grzesiak and Dom Peterson for 0 yards to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+12
9.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 51 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 12 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15END OF HALF
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:1394% → 96%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
6.4%
Carson Strong run for 3 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
6.2%
Carson Strong sacked by Scott Patchan for 0 yards to the Nevad 12Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+17
6.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
6.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
5.9%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+8
6.0%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.4%
Carson Strong sacked by Scott Patchan and Mohamed Kamara for 0 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:105% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.3%
A'Jon Vivens run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
5.3%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
5.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+69
13.1%
Trey McBride run for 69 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1891% → 92%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
9.5%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
9.5%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+9
9.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
7.9%
Julian Diaz punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:599% → 7%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
9.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 27 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
10.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
10.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
10.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+4
10.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 4 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
10.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 16 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
11.2%
Ty McCullouch run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 14
OPP 24
0
10.9%
Todd Centeio sacked by Zak Mahannah and Amir Johnson for 0 yards to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 16
OPP 26
0
7.4%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted return for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
4 plays · 99 yds · 1:4894% → 97%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
5.6%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+12
5.6%
Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
5.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 16 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
3.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 66 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:522% → 2%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
2.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
2.1%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
1.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5197% → 98%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
2.6%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-10
2.6%
TAUA, Toa rush up the middle for no gain to the CSU44 (MCBRIDE, Toby;FRANCIS, Tywan). PENALTY NEV Holding on ORSINI, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the CSU44 to the NEV46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 21
OWN 46
0
2.6%
Nate Cox pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 21
OWN 46
+11
2.7%
Nate Cox pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 11 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
2.0%
Nate Cox punt for 32 yds, downed at the ColSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:062% → 2%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
1.5%
Evan Olaes run for 12 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
1.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
1.5%
Evan Olaes run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+9
1.5%
Evan Olaes pass complete to Gary Williams for 9 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
1.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-1
1.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
1.5%
Evan Olaes run for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
1.5%
Evan Olaes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:3899% → 99%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
0.9%
Toa Taua run for 14 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
0.8%
TAUA, Toa rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the CSU30 (AJAYI, Rashad). PENALTY NEV Holding on BALLARD, Harry enforced 10 yards from the CSU32 to the CSU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+3
0.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+9
0.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-6
0.5%
Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+53
0.6%
Brandon Talton 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:521% → 0%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
0.5%
Evan Olaes pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 9 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
0.5%
Alex Berrouet run for 2 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
0.4%
Alex Berrouet run for 12 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
0.5%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+40
0.4%
Avery Morrow run for 40 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
0.3%
Nate Cox run for 15 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Evan Olaes run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
0.2%
Evan Olaes run for 6 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
0.2%
Evan Olaes run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+5
0.2%
Evan Olaes pass complete to Gary Williams for 5 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+7
0.2%
Evan Olaes run for 7 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+1
0.1%
Evan Olaes run for 1 yd to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+42
0.3%
Avery Morrow run for 42 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.2%
Nate Cox pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
0.2%
Nate Cox run for 5 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:140% → 0%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Evan Olaes run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
0.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
0.1%
Alex Berrouet run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
0.1%
Alex Berrouet run for 26 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
0.1%
Alex Berrouet run for 3 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
0.1%
Alex Berrouet run for 3 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+11
0.1%
Evan Olaes run for 11 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.1%
Evan Olaes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
0.1%
Alex Berrouet run for 1 yd to the Nevad 20Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+5
0.1%
Evan Olaes pass complete to Gerick Robinson for 5 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
0.1%
Cayden Camper 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.1%
Wesley Kommer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
0.1%
Clay Millen run for 4 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
0.1%
Wesley Kommer run for 1 yd to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
0.1%
Julian Diaz punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:48
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 13:50
Trey McBride run for 69 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 9:24
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com