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SDSU

San Diego State 28 at UNLV 20

UNLV
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:28 · Evan Silva punt for 54 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior−4.4Home team on offense−4.8Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:13: Justin Rogers pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 43 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +10.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:31: Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:05: Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 24 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:24: Justin Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +15.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:33: Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +21.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 9:58UNLV 4th & 3 at SDSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:06SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:41UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:29SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:09UNLV 4th & 20 at UNLV 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:54SDSU 4th & 5 at midfield, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:49UNLV 4th & 2 at SDSU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−1.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:31SDSU 4th & 2 at UNLV 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−0.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:42SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:37SDSU 4th & 24 at SDSU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−6.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:13UNLV 4th & 4 at SDSU 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−12.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:12UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−5.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:35SDSU 4th & 7 at UNLV 45, up 1
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−4.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:28UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 6, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:35SDSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 13, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−8.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−31.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:01SDSU 4th & 2 at UNLV 41, up 8
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:15SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:13UNLV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:31SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:05SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:24UNLV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:33SDSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−3.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 5:0222% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.6%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
21.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 4 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+20
21.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Charles Williams for 20 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
21.6%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+10
21.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 10 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
21.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 27 yds to the SDSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
21.6%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
21.6%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
21.6%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
24.8%
Daniel Gutierrez 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:5275% → 73%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.6%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
24.6%
Lucas Johnson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
24.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 14 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
24.3%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-8
24.3%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+6
24.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
27.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3INT TD
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:5127% → 25%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
26.8%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 13
OWN 9
-17
25.0%
Andrew Aleki 17 Yd Interception Return (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3425% → 26%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.2%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 3 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
25.1%
Charles Williams run for 9 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
25.0%
PENALTY SDS Offside (Hawkins,Tayler) 5 yards from NLV31 to NLV36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
25.4%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
25.5%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Zyell GriffinSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
25.2%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Zyell GriffinSimilar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
25.8%
Evan Silva punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:1274% → 72%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
26.3%
BJ Busbee run for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+10
26.3%
Greg Bell run for 10 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
26.2%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+12
26.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 12 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
26.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
26.8%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+7
27.2%
Lucas Johnson run for 7 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
27.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:2028% → 28%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
27.6%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
27.6%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+9
27.0%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 9 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.8%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
27.7%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Zyell GriffinSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
27.1%
Cameron Friel sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
27.5%
Evan Silva punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:1573% → 71%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
27.3%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 5
50
+2
27.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 2 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
27.3%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 5
50
0
28.9%
Matt Araiza punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:4129% → 40%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
28.9%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 8Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+12
28.8%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 12 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
29.2%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+36
29.1%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Charles Williams for 36 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
40.1%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 43 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:3865% → 74%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
35.5%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Elijah KotheSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
36.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 11 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+37
34.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 37 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
33.8%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Uluave,Alama) 5 yards from NLV11 to NLV16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+12
34.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+3
33.8%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
33.8%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Martinez,Chris) 5 yards from NLV01 to NLV06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
33.8%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
26.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:4231% → 30%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
30.6%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 21 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
32.9%
PENALTY NLV False Start (Shanks,Tiger) 5 yards from NLV46 to NLV41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+9
31.2%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 6
50
+5
33.3%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 5 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
33.2%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
30.4%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 0:4473% → 83%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
27.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Elijah KotheSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
27.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 6
50
+4
27.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+9
28.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 9 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
26.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 13 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
25.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
17.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 24 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
20.4%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1879% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
21.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 15 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
20.0%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Crenshaw-Dickson,Brandon) 5 yards from SDS40 to SDS35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
21.1%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Elijah KotheSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+8
21.2%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-8
20.1%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 35 fumbled, recovered by UNLV , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
21.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 4:1820% → 37%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
20.2%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Charles Williams for 3 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-4
20.2%
Rogers,Justin pass complete to Griffin,Zyell for 12 yards to the NLV21 (Celestine,Davaughn; McDonald,Caden) PENALTY NLV Holding (McDaniel,Daviyon) 4 yards from NLV09 to NLV05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+9
20.2%
Charles Williams run for 9 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+80
19.8%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 80 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
23.7%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 5Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
22.6%
Williams,Charles rush for 5 yards gain to the SDS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:16 PENALTY NLV Holding (McDaniel,Daviyon) 10 yards from SDS05 to SDS15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
22.0%
Justin Rogers run for 7 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
37.3%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:4068% → 65%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
32.5%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Bessent,Desmond) 5 yards from SDS19 to SDS14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 15
OWN 14
0
32.8%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+4
33.1%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 11
OWN 18
-13
34.2%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 13 yards to the SDSt 5Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 24
OWN 5
0
34.7%
Matt Araiza punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:2434% → 43%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
33.8%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+12
33.2%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 12 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
36.5%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 7 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
37.3%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
36.8%
Justin Rogers run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
37.2%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 39 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.0%
Justin Rogers run for 4 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
38.0%
Rogers,Justin pass incomplete to Griffin,Zyell PENALTY SDS Offside (Thompson,Trenton) 4 yards from SDS08 to SDS04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
38.0%
Justin Rogers run for no gain to the SDSt 4Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
36.0%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q3 1:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
42.5%
Daniel Gutierrez 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17INT
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:4361% → 68%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 8 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
35.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+47
36.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 47 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
31.7%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
32.0%
Lucas Johnson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1841% → 37%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
40.6%
Justin Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
40.3%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-5
38.4%
Justin Rogers sacked by Cameron Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
37.2%
Evan Silva punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3766% → 63%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
34.1%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the UNLV 47Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
34.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+2
35.3%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
37.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0740% → 38%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
40.0%
Justin Rogers run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
39.6%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+1
38.7%
Justin Rogers run for 1 yd to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+10
37.5%
Evan Silva punt for 54 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:5566% → 94%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
50
+9
33.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 9 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+19
33.0%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Personal Foul (Adam Plant Jr.) to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
31.2%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
31.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 2 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
33.2%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
32.4%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
27.9%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+3
27.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
6.1%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:4811% → 7%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
10.9%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 8 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
12.8%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 16 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
13.7%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
13.2%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 6 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
14.6%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
7.4%
UNLV Penalty, Personal Foul (Charles Williams) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4497% → 97%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
3.3%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
3.3%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+1
3.2%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+25
3.0%
Matt Araiza punt blocked by Tyson Player blocked by Tyson PlayerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:33
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
-21.8
TD · Q3 8:24
Justin Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q2 6:13
Justin Rogers pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 43 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com