2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Maverik Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:48 · John Hoyland 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:50: Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 17 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +13.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:07: Connor Coles 36 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +6.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:56: Titus Swen run for 43 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +12.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:14: John Hoyland 24 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +7.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:29: Titus Swen run for 98 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +7.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 13:51WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snapGo for it34.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%average punt
- Q1 10:39USU 4th & 3 at WYO 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.6%53% to convertField goal65.5%−0.142% to makePunt65.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:17WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, tiedClose callPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it36.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:29USU 4th & 1 at USU 11, tiedClose callPunted · 62.4% before the snapGo for it63.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 10:29WYO 4th & 1 at USU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.3%71% to convertField goal37.2%−1.177% to makePunt34.0%−4.3average punt
- Q2 5:13USU 4th & 4 at USU 43, down 7Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snapGo for it51.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:48WYO 4th & 2 at USU 11, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snapGo for it55.1%56% to convertField goalTheir call54.1%−1.087% to makePunt48.8%−6.3average punt
- Q2 0:07USU 4th & 4 at WYO 19, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snapGo for it41.3%−1.447% to convertField goalTheir call42.7%77% to makePunt39.2%−3.4average punt
- Q3 12:33USU 4th & 10 at WYO 25, down 7Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 46.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.9%−1.128% to convertField goal47.0%66% to makePunt37.3%−9.7average punt
- Q3 10:24USU 4th & 4 at USU 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.0%average punt
- Q3 5:14WYO 4th & 2 at USU 7, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snapGo for it79.6%53% to convertField goalTheir call77.7%−1.991% to makePunt67.7%−11.9average punt
- Q3 2:22USU 4th & 19 at WYO 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it16.7%−2.012% to convertField goal18.4%−0.334% to makePuntTheir call18.8%average punt
- Q3 0:29USU 4th & 9 at USU 44, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q4 12:39WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 29, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q4 10:29USU 4th & 10 at WYO 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%30% to convertField goal2.4%−0.232% to makePunt2.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:13WYO 4th & 2 at USU 17, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%56% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%−0.280% to makePunt97.7%−1.0average punt
- Q4 3:52USU 4th & 2 at WYO 42, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.157% to convertField goal0.3%30% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 7:47WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.7%97% to makeGo for two36.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:38USU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.6%97% to makeGo for two64.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:39USU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.6%97% to makeGo for two63.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:50WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:56WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:29WYO Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0940% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2DOWNS7 plays · 29 yds · 3:1260% → 60%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
59.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 11 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
59.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 8 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
59.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for no gain to the Wyom 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3TD8 plays · 64 yds · 2:5241% → 44%
Q1 9:33
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+11
59.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 11 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+14
59.3%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 14 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
55.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 40 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0957% → 61%
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+10
57.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds to the Wyom 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
57.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the Wyom 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
60.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4655% → 61%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
60.9%
Deven Thompkins 41 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1341% → 41%
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
58.6%
WILLIAMS, Levi pass to the right complete for 73 yards to VALLADAY, Xazavian caught at the WYO35 and advanced to the USU0, TOUCHDOWN WYO, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on COBBS, Joshua enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the WYO13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+16
58.9%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 16 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · 29 yds · 0:2160% → 61%
WYODrive 8INT6 plays · 44 yds · 2:3643% → 45%
USUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3459% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10TD8 plays · 55 yds · 3:3944% → 56%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
43.8%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 17 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2948% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12FG9 plays · 73 yds · 3:2554% → 61%
USUDrive 13FG9 plays · 45 yds · 1:3440% → 44%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
39.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
50
+13
41.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 13 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
41.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 12 yds to the Wyom 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15DOWNS8 plays · 26 yds · 2:2744% → 43%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
44.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 3 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
43.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 8 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 10
OPP 25
-19
43.1%
run for a loss of 19 yards to the Wyom 44 fumbled, recovered by Wyom C.J. ColdonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD2 plays · 56 yds · 0:3762% → 74%
USUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2829% → 27%
Q3 11:52
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+4
28.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 4 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18FG12 plays · 69 yds · 5:1074% → 83%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
25.3%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 34 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
23.9%
WYOMING Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaiah Neyor) to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+33
24.4%
Xazavian Valladay run for 33 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+9
24.2%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 9 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 2:5119% → 17%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
18.8%
BONNER, Logan pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMPKINS, Deven thrown to the WYO45. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on BLANKENBAKER, Keyon enforced 15 yards to the USU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
21.9%
Logan Bonner sacked by Garrett Crall and Jaylen Pate for 0 yards to the Wyom 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20TD2 plays · 98 yds · 0:5388% → 96%
USUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 0:545% → 5%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
4.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 10 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2197% → 97%
Q4 12:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
2.9%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 39 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for no gain to the UthSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23DOWNS8 plays · 22 yds · 2:103% → 3%
WYODrive 24FG7 plays · 42 yds · 4:1698% → 100%
Q4 10:29
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+35
2.0%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 35 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25DOWNS8 plays · 53 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.2%
BONNER, Logan pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMPKINS, Deven thrown to the USU35. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on WHITE, Isaac enforced 15 yards to the USU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-3
0.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kyle Van Leeuwen for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+6
0.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kyle Van Leeuwen for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER5 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:50
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 17 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-13
TD · Q3 11:56
Titus Swen run for 43 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-12.3
FG · Q3 5:14
John Hoyland 24 yd FG GOOD
-7.7