2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUNM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:03 · Jonah Dalmas 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 0:13: Jonah Dalmas 27 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +0.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:39: Dylan Herberg 6 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:02: Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 45 — UNM win probability +1.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 56 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:13: Jonah Dalmas 46 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 12:33UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q1 8:42UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q1 8:07BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snapGo for it94.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.4%average punt
- Q1 5:28UNM 4th & 24 at UNM 3, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.7%−0.35% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q1 5:28BOIS 4th & 1 at UNM 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.0%71% to convertField goal93.8%−0.289% to makePunt93.4%−0.7average punt
- Q1 0:13BOIS 4th & 10 at UNM 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snapGo for it92.7%−0.224% to convertField goalTheir call92.9%88% to makePunt92.0%−0.9average punt
- Q2 13:39UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q2 10:05UNM 4th & 4 at BOIS 44, down 17Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.9%48% to convertField goal4.2%−0.827% to makePuntTheir call4.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:35UNM 4th & 17 at BOIS 45, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.515% to convertField goal4.7%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q2 1:02BOIS 4th & 1 at UNM 43, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.7%70% to convertField goal95.0%−0.728% to makePunt95.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 12:44BOIS 4th & 6 at UNM 44, up 24Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.7%40% to convertField goal97.4%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call97.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:58UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q3 6:13BOIS 4th & 2 at UNM 29, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.4%57% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%−0.258% to makePunt97.2%−1.2average punt
- Q3 1:03BOIS 4th & 5 at UNM 24, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%68% to makePunt99.1%−0.6average punt
- Q4 14:04UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 22, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 7:31UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 39, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:53BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 49, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:33BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:39BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:48BOIS Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNMDrive 1PUNT TD5 plays · -2 yds · 2:215% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 3:455% → 5%
Q1 8:42
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+20
94.7%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 46 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 20 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3595% → 95%
Q1 8:07
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
94.6%
Joel Velazquez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 2:396% → 6%
Q1 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-5
94.5%
COLE, Bobby rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the UNM24 (NOA, Ezekiel). PENALTY Before the snap, UNM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UNM21 to the UNM16. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 24
OWN 3
0
94.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the NMex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5FG12 plays · 35 yds · 5:1594% → 94%
Q1 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+10
94.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds to the NMex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+8
94.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 8 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
94.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT TD4 plays · 4 yds · 1:216% → 5%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.6%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Kyle Jarvis for 2 yds to the NMex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 3:345% → 5%
Q2 13:39
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+15
95.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Demitri Washington) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8INT9 plays · 81 yds · 4:1296% → 96%
Q2 10:05
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+13
96.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 13 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
96.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 5 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
96.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 13 yds to the NMex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 2:185% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10DOWNS7 plays · 37 yds · 2:3396% → 96%
UNMDrive 11Uncategorized3 plays · 2 yds · 0:455% → 5%
Q2 0:17
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+15
94.8%
GENAL, Connor sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the UNM36, fumble on the sack (forced by IRWIN, Shane), recovered by BSU SKINNER, JL at the BSU48, returned 16 yards to the UNM36, SKINNER, JL fumbled at UNM36 out of bounds , out of bounds. PENALTY BSU Personal Foul on NOA, Ezekiel enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the UNM41 to the BSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD2 plays · 56 yds · 0:1796% → 98%
BOISDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:1098% → 98%
UNMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 2:462% → 2%
Q3 9:58
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG10 plays · 35 yds · 3:4598% → 100%
Q3 9:58
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
98.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 4 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-20
98.1%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right complete for 20 yards to HOLANI, George caught at the UNM38 and advanced to the UNM38 (WILSON, Ronald), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY UNM Roughing the Passer on NOBLE, Joey BSU Illegal Block in the Back on KOETTER, Davis , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16INT6 plays · 20 yds · 3:140% → 0%
Q3 6:06
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 46 fumbled, recovered by NMex Bobby Wooden for a 1ST down , return for no gain to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17FG8 plays · 56 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
UNMDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:520% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD10 plays · 62 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
99.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 16 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Jack Sears sacked by Jake Saltonstall and Jaden Phillips for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 14
50
+42
99.9%
Jack Sears pass complete to Billy Bowens for 42 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.9%
SEARS, Jack pass to the right incomplete intended for BOWENS, Billy thrown to the UNM0. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on ODUMS, A.J. enforced 6 yards to the UNM2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:520% → 0%
Q4 7:31
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Latrell Caples at the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 6:38100% → 100%
Q4 7:31
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-7
99.9%
Taequan Tyler run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 41 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyreque Jones) to the BoiSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · 13 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 56 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 13:39
Dylan Herberg 6 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jonah Dalmas Kick)
+1.7
FG · Q3 6:13
Jonah Dalmas 46 yd FG GOOD
+1.6