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AF

Air Force 41 at Nevada 39

NEV
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2021 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingOne-score game
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Matthew Dapore 49 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +10.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:04: Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 13 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +14.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:20: DeAndre Hughes run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +16.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:56: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 61 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +24.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:13: Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +34.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8AF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:48NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:59NEV 4th & 6 at AF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:59AF 4th & 1 at AF 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.5%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 1 at NEV 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:26AF 4th & 6 at AF 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:13NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:20NEV 4th & 29 at NEV 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00AF 4th & 5 at NEV 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:25AF 4th & 1 at NEV 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−2.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:15NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:35NEV 4th & 22 at NEV 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:23AF 4th & 6 at AF 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:23NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 46, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:03AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:27AF 4th & 11 at AF 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−4.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:20NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−21.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:25AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:34AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:04NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:20AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:56NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:13NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1250% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
49.8%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
49.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
50.0%
Julian Diaz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:2250% → 50%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
50.0%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
49.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
49.9%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 6
50
+7
49.9%
Dane Kinamon run for 7 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
49.9%
PENALTY AFA False Start (Cochran,Isaac) 5 yards from NEV43 to NEV48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+20
50.0%
DeAndre Hughes run for 20 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
49.9%
run for 1 yd to the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:2751% → 53%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
50.7%
Toa Taua run for 15 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
51.1%
Carson Strong sacked by Jayden Thiergood for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+4
50.7%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+27
50.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 27 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
52.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
52.3%
Toa Taua run for 14 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
52.4%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.3%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the AFA 6Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q1 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
52.8%
Brandon Talton 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 10:3447% → 53%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.6%
DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
52.4%
Dane Kinamon run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
52.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
52.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
51.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
51.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+3
52.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
51.7%
DeAndre Hughes run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+14
52.0%
DeAndre Hughes run for 14 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
51.7%
Brandon Lewis run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
51.4%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
52.1%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
52.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
52.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
53.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
52.1%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
52.1%
DeAndre Hughes run for 2 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
52.7%
Dane Kinamon run for 4 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
47.2%
Ben Jefferson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5INT
11 plays · 33 yds · 2:5750% → 50%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
50.1%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+13
49.7%
Carson Strong run for 13 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
50.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+14
51.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
52.1%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
52.0%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Davis,Gray) 5 yards from AFA42 to AFA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+17
50.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 17 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
53.0%
NEVADA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Carson Strong) to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 19
OPP 39
0
49.9%
Carson Strong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5652% → 53%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
47.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 11 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
46.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
46.6%
Ben Jefferson run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
46.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
46.9%
Carson Bay punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:1347% → 45%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
47.4%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-5
47.1%
Carson Strong sacked by Christopher Herrera for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 11Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 15
OWN 11
+6
46.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 9
OWN 17
+7
45.3%
Julian Diaz punt for 56 yds , Dane Kinamon returns for 7 yds to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 1:3954% → 67%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
45.7%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+52
44.8%
DeAndre Hughes run for 52 yds to the Nevad 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
42.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Chop Block (Dalton King) to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+6
42.4%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+4
41.1%
DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
33.0%
DeAndre Hughes run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:0933% → 32%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
33.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
33.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-7
33.2%
Carson Strong sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 17
OWN 20
0
32.6%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 29
OWN 8
0
32.1%
Julian Diaz punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:2069% → 80%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
30.7%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
30.6%
DeAndre Hughes run for 9 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
29.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David CormierSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
30.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to DeAndre HughesSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
30.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+8
31.1%
DeAndre Hughes run for 8 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+49
20.3%
Matthew Dapore 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 58 yds · 6:3573% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.2%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
27.1%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
27.4%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
26.7%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
25.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
25.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
25.6%
DeAndre Hughes run for 2 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+18
25.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 18 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
25.3%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
25.2%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
25.7%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Nevad 17Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
20.1%
Dane Kinamon run for no gain to the Nevad 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:2122% → 40%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
21.8%
Carson Strong sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 10 Carson Strong fumbled, recovered by Nevad Toa Taua , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 17
OWN 10
0
21.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for no gain to the Nevad 10Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+25
21.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 25 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+49
22.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 49 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
25.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 3 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
25.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
40.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 13 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4467% → 89%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
32.6%
DeAndre Hughes run for 17 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
30.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
30.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
30.7%
Dane Kinamon run for 5 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
29.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+23
28.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 23 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
27.5%
DeAndre Hughes run for 12 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
27.5%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Nevad 9Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
10.8%
DeAndre Hughes run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:4016% → 14%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
15.9%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 20
0
16.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+2
15.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+2
15.8%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
15.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
16.9%
Melquan Stovall run for 6 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
15.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
-6
15.0%
Carson Strong sacked by Christopher Herrera for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 22
OWN 28
+2
14.3%
Julian Diaz punt for 51 yds , Dane Kinamon returns for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1291% → 93%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
8.8%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
8.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+10
9.1%
DeAndre Hughes run for 10 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
8.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
8.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
8.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
6.8%
Carson Bay punt for 33 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for no gain to the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:0011% → 9%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
10.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+15
11.4%
Strong,Carson pass incomplete to Horton,Tory PENALTY AFA Pass Interference (Bugg III,Tre) 15 yards from NEV31 to NEV46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
12.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
11.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
11.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
9.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
5.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the Nevad 39 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, forced by AJ King, recovered by Nevad Jordan LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
30.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 61 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5379% → 79%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.5%
DeAndre Hughes run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
21.9%
Kinamon,Dane rush for 3 yards gain to the AFA28 (Lee,Jordan), out of bounds PENALTY AFA Holding (King,Dalton) 10 yards from AFA25 to AFA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+4
22.2%
DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+13
22.9%
DeAndre Hughes run for 13 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
21.1%
Charles Bein punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 3:5026% → 68%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
25.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
25.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
26.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
28.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
26.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
25.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for no gain to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+15
23.6%
Strong,Carson pass incomplete to Doubs,Romeo broken up by Bugg III,Tre PENALTY AFA Pass Interference (Bugg III,Tre) 15 yards from NEV45 to AFA40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
30.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
30.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 7 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+13
30.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 13 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
33.1%
Toa Taua run for 18 yds to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.1%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the AFA 2Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:4649% → 48%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.3%
DeAndre Hughes run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
49.6%
DeAndre Hughes run for 11 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
45.9%
Hughes,DeAndre rush for 1 yard gain to the AFA49 (Dedman,Jaden) PENALTY AFA Illegal Motion 5 yards from AFA48 to AFA43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+3
49.5%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+4
48.6%
run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+5
51.3%
DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
51.6%
Charles Bein punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:0756% → 54%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
55.5%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+10
54.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
56.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-8
55.5%
Carson Strong sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 18
OWN 8
+7
55.2%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
54.2%
Julian Diaz punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
45.3%
DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-45.3
TD · Q4 3:13
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
+34.3
TD · Q4 8:56
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 61 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
+24.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com