Try the model
NEV

Nevada 21 at San Diego State 23

SDSU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · StubHub Center
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:09 · Julian Diaz punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+17.0+8.50−8.5−17.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense+10.6Pregame prior+2.0Score differential+3.5Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:31: Chance Bell run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:20: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +16.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 11:58: Matt Araiza 39 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +13.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:57: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +30.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:21: Matt Araiza 35 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +29.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:04SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57NEV 4th & 2 at SDSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:21NEV 4th & 6 at SDSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:21SDSU 4th & 1 at NEV 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35SDSU 4th & 2 at NEV 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:05NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:56SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:36NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00SDSU 4th & 5 at NEV 38, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:56NEV 4th & 21 at NEV 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−4.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:09NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−3.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:06SDSU 4th & 12 at NEV 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    78.8%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:15SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−2.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:46NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:58SDSU 4th & 6 at NEV 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−14.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:24SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 38, down 1
    Close callPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:33NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−9.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:33SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.3%−3.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:21SDSU 4th & 5 at NEV 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−21.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−36.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:42NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 49, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.2%−9.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:42SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:31SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:20NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:57NEV Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5055% → 55%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
55.3%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
55.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
55.3%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+13
55.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 60 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:4345% → 44%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
55.4%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+15
55.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 15 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
55.3%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
55.3%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
55.4%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+3
55.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 3 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
55.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
55.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 2 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-2
55.4%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
55.7%
Carson Strong punt for 37 yds, downed at the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 5:3956% → 62%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
56.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 8 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+50
55.9%
Greg Bell run for 50 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
56.7%
Chance Bell run for 9 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+4
56.9%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
56.9%
Lucas Johnson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-8
56.9%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 31 fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jordan ByrdSimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+12
56.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 12 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+9
56.5%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
56.9%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.5%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dom Peterson) to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:4140% → 46%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
60.4%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+8
60.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
60.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+15
59.9%
STRONG, Carson pass to the right incomplete intended for DOUBS, Romeo broken up by THOMPSON, Trenton at the SDS19. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on THOMPSON, Trenton enforced 15 yards to the NEV49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
59.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
59.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+8
59.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 8 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
60.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 9 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+28
53.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 28 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 5:1157% → 60%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
57.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
57.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 5 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
57.5%
Lucas Johnson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
58.0%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+13
58.2%
Greg Bell run for 13 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
58.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 7 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
58.9%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-1
58.9%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+48
59.7%
Matt Araiza 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:3042% → 39%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
57.8%
Toa Taua run for 10 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
57.0%
Carson Strong sacked by Jalil Lecky for 0 yards to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+4
58.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
59.4%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
60.9%
Julian Diaz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0960% → 60%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
60.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 5 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
60.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 2 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+8
59.7%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 8 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
61.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
62.2%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
61.4%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 3
OWN 48
-5
60.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
59.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:2040% → 38%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
59.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 12 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
59.1%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
59.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 1 yd to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+9
60.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
57.9%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
58.5%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+7
62.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 7 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
61.9%
Julian Diaz punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:3661% → 62%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
61.4%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+28
62.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 28 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
64.4%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for 0 yards to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
63.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+6
62.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+17
62.2%
Matt Araiza 55 yd FG MISSED , return for 17 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0439% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
60.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
59.6%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
59.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 1 yd to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
59.8%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
61.8%
Carson Strong sacked for 0 yards to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 21
OWN 26
0
63.7%
Julian Diaz punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2562% → 79%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.4%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
62.9%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
63.3%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+14
64.3%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 14 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
65.3%
Chance Bell run for 18 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
65.9%
NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dom Peterson) to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
65.9%
Chance Bell run for 9 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
78.8%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1525% → 22%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
75.1%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
75.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-5
76.6%
Carson Strong run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 16
OWN 33
+6
78.5%
Julian Diaz punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:0378% → 78%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
77.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 8 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
78.8%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
78.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Chance Bell for 4 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
78.8%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
79.2%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
79.0%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
77.7%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
78.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:4621% → 42%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
78.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
78.1%
STRONG, Carson pass to the right complete for 1 yard to DOUBS, Romeo caught at the NEV31 and advanced to the NEV35 (TUMBLIN, Noah;OLUBI, Segun). PENALTY NEV Chop Block on STOVALL, Melquan enforced 15 yards from the NEV34 to the NEV19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+17
78.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 17 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+8
77.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
77.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 17 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
75.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 13 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
74.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 21 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.2%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0564% → 62%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
64.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
63.7%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
62.2%
Lucas Johnson run for 6 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
61.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 57 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for no gain to the Nevad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2935% → 32%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
65.0%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
65.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 3 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
66.8%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 21
-5
68.1%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Daniel Grzesiak) to the Nevad 16Similar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 12
OWN 16
+19
68.2%
punt for 40 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 19 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:4869% → 81%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
69.1%
Lucas Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+7
68.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 7 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
68.5%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
70.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
70.1%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+3
68.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
81.4%
Matt Araiza 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0127% → 58%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
70.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
71.1%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
73.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
42.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2750% → 48%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
50.0%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
50.0%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 4 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
52.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
47.9%
Matt Araiza punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:5154% → 56%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
46.0%
Carson Strong run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
46.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
47.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
45.1%
Carson Strong sacked by Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 13
OWN 28
-5
46.5%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gardner) to the Nevad 23Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 18
OWN 23
+5
46.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
48.4%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+9
44.3%
Julian Diaz punt for 51 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 9 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:1249% → 86%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
48.6%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
48.8%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
50.4%
Lucas Johnson run for no gain to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+6
46.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
53.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+19
50.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 19 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
55.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+17
54.7%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to TJ Sullivan for 17 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
60.8%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+2
61.3%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
56.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
86.1%
Matt Araiza 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:3926% → 28%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
74.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
70.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 8 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
66.2%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
66.5%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
71.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:57
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 54 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-30.8
FG · Q4 1:21
Matt Araiza 35 yd FG GOOD
+29.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+28.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com