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USU

Utah State 48 at San José State 17

SJSU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-2.9SJSU 40.5%Connor Coles 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 14 · Q2 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Connor Coles 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Home team on offense−11.3Score differential−5.2Pregame prior+7.7Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:26: Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:55: Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +7.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:54: Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +10.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:12: Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +15.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:17: Derek Wright 41 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +6.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:39SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17USU 4th & 8 at SJSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:51SJSU 4th & 16 at SJSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:45USU 4th & 8 at SJSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:14SJSU 4th & 5 at USU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:01SJSU 4th & 24 at SJSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:37SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00USU 4th & 8 at SJSU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−7.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:19USU 4th & 5 at USU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:32SJSU 4th & 6 at USU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:11SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 43, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:02USU 4th & 11 at USU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−4.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:30USU 4th & 9 at SJSU 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−8.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:31SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 29, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:36SJSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:28USU 4th & 6 at SJSU 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:07SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 1:10SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:26SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:40USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:55USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:54USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:12USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:17USU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:21USU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1666% → 65%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
65.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 6 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
65.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
65.6%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+6
65.4%
Will Hart punt for 38 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 6 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2235% → 35%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
65.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
65.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+10
65.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 10 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
65.3%
TYLER JR., Calvin rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the SJS38 (BROWN, II, Bobby;JENKINS, Tre), out of bounds. PENALTY USU Holding on SOUTH, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the SJS45 to the USU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
65.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+3
65.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 3 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 17
OWN 48
+9
65.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 9 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
65.1%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2665% → 64%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
65.1%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 5Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 13
OWN 5
-3
65.1%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 2Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 16
OWN 2
0
64.9%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 16
OWN 2
+5
64.4%
Will Hart punt for 46 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 5 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0636% → 35%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
64.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Carson Terrell for 6 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-4
64.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
64.3%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
64.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 38 yds, downed at the SJSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:3165% → 65%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-2
65.0%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 1Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 12
OWN 1
+23
64.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Skylar Loving-Black for 23 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
65.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 9 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+13
65.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 13 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
65.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+9
65.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 9 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
65.8%
Nick Nash run for 8 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-3
66.0%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
65.8%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+1
65.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 1 yd to the UthSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6INT TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0436% → 31%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
64.2%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+8
63.9%
Logan Bonner run for 8 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.5%
Logan Bonner sacked by Tre Smith for 0 yards to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+3
64.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 3 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-58
69.2%
Kenyon Reed 58 Yd Interception Return (Matt Mercurio Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:5831% → 31%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
69.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 17 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
68.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
68.7%
Logan Bonner sacked for 0 yards to the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:3471% → 77%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
70.9%
Nick Nash run for 18 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
71.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 19 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:4626% → 33%
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+43
74.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 43 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
73.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 8 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+5
73.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
73.0%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Derek thrown to the SJS0. PENALTY SJS Pass Interference on JENKINS, Tre enforced 12 yards to the SJS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Savon Scarver for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · -18 yds · 2:2670% → 70%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
70.4%
Nick Nash run for 5 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
70.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
70.5%
Nick Nash run for 4 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
70.5%
QB Keeper NASH, Nick rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the SJS41 (REYNOLDS, Hunter). PENALTY SJS Holding on SNYDER, Jack enforced 10 yards from the SJS35 to the SJS25 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
70.2%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 20
OWN 25
0
70.2%
Nick Nash sacked for 0 yards to the SJSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:1232% → 40%
Q2 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:4965% → 63%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
64.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 21Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-5
64.5%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 16Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 16
OWN 16
0
63.7%
Nick Starkel sacked by Nick Heninger for 0 yards to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 24
OWN 8
0
62.8%
Will Hart punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the SJSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:0741% → 51%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
59.2%
Elelyon Noa run for 8 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+4
58.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
58.6%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMPKINS, Deven broken up by BROWN, II, Bobby at the SJS0. PENALTY SJS Pass Interference on BROWN, II, Bobby enforced 15 yards to the SJS16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
58.5%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
58.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+11
59.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 11 yds to the SJSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.0%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1752% → 50%
Q2 5:54
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
52.2%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+1
51.4%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 13
OWN 22
0
52.4%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
50.2%
Will Hart punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15FG
17 plays · 53 yds · 4:3750% → 60%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
50.2%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Derek thrown to the USU40. PENALTY SJS Roughing the Passer on FEHOKO, Viliami enforced 15 yards from the USU32 to the USU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
48.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
46.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
46.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
46.9%
Andrew Peasley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
47.0%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for BOWLING, Brandon thrown to the SJS27. PENALTY Before the snap, USU False Start on THOMPKINS, Deven enforced 5 yards from the SJS42 to the SJS47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+4
45.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+15
44.9%
BONNER, Logan pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMPKINS, Deven thrown to the SJS5. PENALTY SJS Personal Foul on FEHOKO, Viliami enforced 15 yards from the SJS43 to the SJS28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
43.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
43.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+6
43.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
43.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
43.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
43.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
40.5%
Connor Coles 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3457% → 57%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
42.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 18Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+4
42.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
43.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
43.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 46 yds, downed at the SJSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:4741% → 44%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
41.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 6 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
40.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 5 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
40.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 16 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
41.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+16
40.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 16 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
42.6%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+3
42.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 3 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
41.2%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
44.2%
Matt Mercurio 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:1559% → 80%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
41.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
40.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+53
39.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 53 yds to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
36.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+12
36.5%
Logan Bonner run for 12 yds to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5525% → 24%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
24.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
25.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
26.5%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
24.0%
Will Hart punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:0980% → 82%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
20.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 6 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
20.2%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right complete for 16 yards to THOMPKINS, Deven caught at the USU15 and advanced to the USU32 (WELCH, Malik), out of bounds. PENALTY USU Holding on THOMPKINS, Deven enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the USU16 to the USU8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+9
20.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 9 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+5
20.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 5 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
20.1%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
20.0%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-5
20.4%
Logan Bonner run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
17.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · -11 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-11
20.7%
run for a loss of 11 yards to the SJSt 44 fumbled, recovered by UthSt Cash GilliamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:2485% → 90%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
15.1%
Pailate Makakona run for 14 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
14.7%
Pailate Makakona run for 6 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
11.2%
Pailate Makakona run for no gain to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+12
11.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 12 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
10.9%
Pailate Makakona run for 4 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
10.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+2
11.1%
Pailate Makakona run for 2 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 6
-5
12.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Connor Coles) to the SJSt 11Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
10.5%
Connor Coles 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5916% → 15%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.6%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
15.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 2 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
15.3%
STARKEL, Nick pass to the left incomplete intended for MILLER, Malikhi thrown to the SJS42. PENALTY USU Offsides on CARTER, Ajani enforced 5 yards from the SJS22 to the SJS27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
15.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
14.8%
Will Hart punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1491% → 98%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
8.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 13 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
8.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+4
8.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+5
8.4%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
8.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+41
1.6%
Derek Wright 41 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:413% → 3%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
2.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 8 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
2.9%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
2.8%
STARKEL, Nick pass to the right incomplete intended for BRADDOCK, Jermaine thrown to the SJS40. PENALTY SJS Personal Foul on STEVENS, Tyler enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the SJS25 to the SJS11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 15
OWN 12
0
2.7%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 15
OWN 12
+28
2.6%
Will Hart punt for 43 yds SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on BROWN, II, Bobby enforced at the deadball spot for (Bobby Brown II) to the SJSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0899% → 99%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
1.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+12
1.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 12 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
1.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
0.9%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
0.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
0.8%
Connor Coles 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.2%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted return for no gain to the SJSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4899% → 100%
Q4 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
0.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 13 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 4 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+23
0.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 23 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
0.1%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
0.1%
Will Hart punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 14 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
0.2%
Pailate Makakona run for 6 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
0.2%
Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
0.2%
Andrew Peasley run for 3 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
0.2%
Pailate Makakona run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+2
0.2%
Pailate Makakona run for 2 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.1%
Andrew Peasley run for 2 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:12
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q2 5:54
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 9:55
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com