2021 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2021 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:04 · Ralph Fawaz punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:42: Titus Swen run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +9.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jonah Dalmas 43 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +3.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:51: Jonah Dalmas 38 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +3.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:31: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 1 yd to the Wyom 12 — BOIS win probability +12.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:39: Andrew Van Buren run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +7.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 13:05WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.6%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q1 9:21BOIS 4th & 5 at WYO 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.5%42% to convertField goal80.5%−0.140% to makePunt80.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:27WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snapGo for it20.1%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q2 14:49WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 48, down 7Close callPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.0%−0.8average punt
- Q2 9:10BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snapGo for it80.0%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.2%average punt
- Q2 2:47BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 42, tiedClose callPunted · 72.4% before the snapGo for it72.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:52WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 28, tiedClose callPunted · 29.3% before the snapGo for it29.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 8:51BOIS 4th & 4 at WYO 21, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snapGo for it75.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call74.7%−0.374% to makePunt68.4%−6.6average punt
- Q3 4:10WYO 4th & 26 at WYO 37, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it18.6%−4.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q3 1:37BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 31, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snapGo for it76.5%−5.712% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.1%average punt
- Q4 13:04WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 49, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it26.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.2%−2.0average punt
- Q4 11:43BOIS 4th & 15 at BOIS 33, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it80.5%−4.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.9%average punt
- Q4 7:04WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 40, down 13Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.2%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:59BOIS 4th & 12 at WYO 12, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.1%−0.619% to convertField goalTheir call97.7%86% to makePunt95.8%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:07BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.8%97% to makeGo for two80.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:42WYO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.8%97% to makeGo for two24.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:39BOIS Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:04WYO Touchdown, down 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick5.2%−0.397% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5518% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.3%
Levi Williams pass complete to Treyton Welch for 4 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
82.3%
SWEN, Titus rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the WYO34 (SKINNER, JL). PENALTY Before the snap, WYO False Start on CRUM, Frank enforced 5 yards from the WYO33 to the WYO28. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2DOWNS9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4482% → 81%
WYODrive 3PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5419% → 20%
BOISDrive 4TD10 plays · 72 yds · 4:2080% → 83%
Q1 7:27
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+5
80.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the Wyom 9Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+5
79.2%
DALMAS, Jonah field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at WYO16], score nullified by penalty, clock 03:41. PENALTY WYO Offsides on HEARN, Azizi enforced 5 yards from the WYO9 to the WYO4 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 3:1818% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT12 plays · 31 yds · 5:3981% → 81%
Q2 14:49
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-10
81.4%
BACHMEIER, Hank scrambles up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the BSU28 (JONES, Victor;GIBBS, Easton). PENALTY BSU Holding on DOOLEY, Ben enforced 10 yards from the BSU23 to the BSU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+1
81.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 1 yd to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+19
80.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 19 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+5
81.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 5 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+2
81.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 2 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7TD8 plays · 76 yds · 4:2819% → 31%
BOISDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5575% → 73%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5530% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10FG8 plays · 62 yds · 0:5272% → 79%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
72.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 18 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
72.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 15 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
74.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 11 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
74.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 3 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+15
75.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 15 yds to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11FG12 plays · 54 yds · 6:0975% → 80%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+17
75.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 17 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
77.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 1 yd to the Wyom 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+15
76.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Latrell Caples for 15 yds to the Wyom 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT10 plays · 13 yds · 4:2122% → 22%
Q3 8:31
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+11
75.2%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 11 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
74.6%
WILLIAMS, Levi pass to the left complete for 15 yards to VALLADAY, Xazavian caught at the BSU42 and advanced to the BSU32 (BIGGERS, Caleb), out of bounds. PENALTY WYO Holding on WATTS, Zach enforced 10 yards from the BSU47 to the WYO43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 25
OWN 38
-1
77.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to Treyton Welch for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 37Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 26
OWN 37
0
78.3%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 36 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for no gain to the BoiSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 2:3380% → 79%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
79.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 9 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-10
81.7%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to SMITH, Riley caught at the WYO46 and advanced to the WYO45 (WHITE, Isaac). PENALTY BSU Holding on OJUKWU, John enforced 10 yards from the BSU41 to the BSU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 3:3324% → 26%
Q3 1:37
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+6
76.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 6 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+15
76.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 15 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
73.6%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2182% → 83%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
81.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 19 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16INT6 plays · 20 yds · 3:1223% → 23%
BOISDrive 17TD2 plays · 13 yds · 0:5289% → 97%
WYODrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:278% → 6%
Q4 7:04
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
93.6%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19FG14 plays · 62 yds · 6:0596% → 99%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
96.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 27 yds to the Wyom 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+9
98.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 9 yds to the Wyom 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+5
98.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 5 yds to the Wyom 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:31
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 1 yd to the Wyom 12
+12.1
TD · Q2 4:42
Titus Swen run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q4 7:39
Andrew Van Buren run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+7.8