Try the model
AF

Air Force 35 at Colorado State 21

CSU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+7.4CSU 40.1%David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD,(Cayden Camper KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 14 · Q2 10:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:09 · David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.1Pregame prior−6.1Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:10: Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 92 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +5.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:09: David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:51: Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +14.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:54: David Bailey run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:07: Brad Roberts run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +15.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:59CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:13AF 4th & 1 at CSU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−2.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:30CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:13AF 4th & 9 at AF 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:09CSU 4th & 1 at AF 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:29AF 4th & 7 at AF 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:57CSU 4th & 15 at AF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:15AF 4th & 14 at CSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:26CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00AF 4th & 8 at AF 34, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 5 at AF 41, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.7%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 4 at CSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−1.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:08CSU 4th & 10 at AF 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:16AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:13AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:59CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:10AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:09CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:51AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:54CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:07AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0141% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.0%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
41.0%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
41.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
41.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 2:4359% → 60%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
41.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
41.3%
Dane Kinamon run for no gain to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+56
41.4%
DeAndre Hughes run for 56 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
41.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
40.4%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:5541% → 41%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.9%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
40.9%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
40.7%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted Milton Bugg III return for no gain to the ColSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 4:0860% → 64%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
40.2%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+10
40.2%
Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
40.2%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+5
40.2%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
40.2%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
40.2%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
40.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
36.5%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3638% → 37%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
37.5%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-5
37.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Dequan Jackson) to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+9
37.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 9 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-2
37.7%
David Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
36.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1764% → 64%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
35.8%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
35.8%
DeAndre Hughes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
36.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+39
35.7%
Carson Bay punt for 39 yds , Dante Wright returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:1435% → 41%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+31
35.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 31 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
36.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
36.7%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+9
36.7%
Todd Centeio run for 9 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
36.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
36.7%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
41.0%
Todd Centeio run for 15 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4961% → 67%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.0%
HUGHES, DeAndre rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the AFA30 (HOWELL, Jack). PENALTY AFA Personal Foul on KING, Dalton enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the AFA25 to the AFA12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-5
39.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (Dalton King) to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 27
OWN 8
+92
33.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 92 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.7%
DAPORE, Matthew PAT kick attempt missed (wide right). PENALTY CSU Offsides on FLOYD, Robert enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the CSU3 to the CSU1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5134% → 40%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
34.6%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
34.7%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
34.9%
Todd Centeio run for 9 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-10
35.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Adam Korutz) to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
34.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for no gain to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+13
34.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 13 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
35.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for 8 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+5
35.4%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+32
35.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 32 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
35.8%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.1%
run for 1 ydSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.7%
David Bailey run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.1%
David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4062% → 61%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.2%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
38.0%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
38.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
39.1%
Carson Bay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:3239% → 36%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
38.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+9
39.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 9 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
39.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for 14 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
40.7%
Dante Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+2
39.7%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
39.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 10
OPP 40
-5
38.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
36.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12MISSED FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 4:4264% → 65%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
36.2%
Dane Kinamon run for 16 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
35.1%
Dane Kinamon run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+5
35.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+15
34.9%
QB Keeper DANIELS, Haaziq rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the AFA43 (KAMARA, Mohamed). PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced 15 yards from the AFA41 to the CSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
34.0%
Brandon Lewis run for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
33.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
34.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
33.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+8
33.7%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
29.1%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-4
29.0%
Brandon Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 14
OPP 20
0
30.4%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+37
32.5%
Matthew Dapore 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
34.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Cameron Butler) to the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4935% → 34%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+9
34.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 9 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
35.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
34.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
34.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 yds, downed at the AFA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:2667% → 66%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
32.8%
DeAndre Hughes run for 15 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
31.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
32.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+2
33.5%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+14
34.1%
Dane Kinamon run for 14 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:0967% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.2%
Dane Kinamon run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
32.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
32.6%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
32.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+8
33.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to DeAndre Hughes for 8 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+1
31.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+16
33.2%
Dane Kinamon run for 16 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
30.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
30.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
31.2%
DeAndre Hughes run for no gain to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+12
32.5%
Brandon Lewis run for 12 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
30.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
30.6%
DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
16.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:5722% → 39%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
21.9%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
21.6%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+15
21.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JACKSON, Jordan enforced (Jordan Jackson) to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
22.7%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
39.0%
David Bailey run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4770% → 91%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
29.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
29.3%
Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
28.7%
DeAndre Hughes run for 22 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
27.3%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+11
27.4%
Brandon Lewis run for 11 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
26.7%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+11
26.7%
DeAndre Hughes run for 11 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
24.4%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
9.3%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18INT
11 plays · 59 yds · 0:0015% → 17%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
14.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
15.1%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
15.2%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
15.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 10 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
16.3%
Todd Centeio sacked by Christopher Herrera and Kenny Ngaima for 0 yards to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
15.7%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+9
16.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
16.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 23 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
18.0%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
18.0%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
17.4%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted, touchback. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19INT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4794% → 94%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
6.3%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
6.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-8
6.7%
HUGHES, DeAndre rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the AFA35 (PATCHAN, Scott). PENALTY AFA Personal Foul on KINAMON, Dane enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the AFA28 to the AFA14, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with 1 yards on the play. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
5.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass intercepted return for no gain to the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4310% → 8%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
10.2%
David Bailey run for no gain to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
10.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
9.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 10
OPP 19
0
8.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21END OF GAME
16 plays · 60 yds · 6:2195% → 99%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
5.0%
Dane Kinamon run for 8 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
5.1%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
5.1%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
5.0%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
5.1%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
4.7%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+8
4.7%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
2.2%
Brad Roberts run for 18 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
1.9%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+5
1.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
1.0%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:54
David Bailey run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
+16.3
TD · Q3 0:07
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q3 7:51
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 20 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com