Try the model
SJSU

San José State 24 at Nevada 27

NEV
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Nick Starkel pass complete to Nick Starkel for 24 yds to the SJSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 3:09: Brandon Talton 51 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 10:05: Matt Mercurio 34 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:26: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +25.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:47: Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +39.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:03: Brandon Talton 45 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +27.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 10 of 12SJSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:31NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:36SJSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:56NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:25SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:20NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:28SJSU 4th & 7 at NEV 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 2 at SJSU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:37NEV 4th & 13 at SJSU 39, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    69.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:14SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:31NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:24SJSU 4th & 4 at NEV 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:25NEV 4th & 10 at SJSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−5.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:10SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:48SJSU 4th & 13 at NEV 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:09NEV 4th & 15 at SJSU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:06NEV 4th & 3 at SJSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.4%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:06NEV 4th & 3 at SJSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.4%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:05SJSU 4th & 7 at NEV 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−3.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−13.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:40NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:17SJSU 4th & 10 at NEV 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−4.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:47SJSU 4th & 2 at NEV 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−12.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−18.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:35NEV 4th & 9 at SJSU 41, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.6%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%
    32% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:27NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:34SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:26NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−1.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:47SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−4.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:2981% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
81.1%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
81.1%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
80.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
80.6%
Julian Diaz punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5519% → 19%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
80.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 15Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
80.7%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Charles RossSimilar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
80.7%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Kairee RobinsonSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 11
OWN 15
+37
80.6%
Will Hart punt for 51 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 37 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4080% → 80%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
80.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
80.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+5
80.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
80.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
79.9%
Julian Diaz punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:2920% → 20%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
79.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+8
79.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 8 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+16
79.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
50
+2
79.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+56
80.3%
Daiyan Henley 56 Yd Fumble Return (Brandon Talton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:5519% → 19%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
80.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
80.8%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
80.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lamar Barrett) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
81.1%
Will Hart punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0581% → 80%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
80.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
80.6%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+5
80.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 16 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
80.2%
Julian Diaz punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:4620% → 23%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
80.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+34
80.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 34 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
79.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5778% → 78%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
78.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
78.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 11 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
78.5%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
77.6%
Carson Strong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0925% → 25%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
75.5%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+7
75.5%
Nick Nash pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 7 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+5
75.7%
Shamar Garrett run for 5 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
75.5%
Matt Mercurio 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10FG
13 plays · 33 yds · 5:5175% → 75%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
75.3%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+13
75.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 13 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
76.2%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
75.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 8 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
76.0%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
76.0%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
75.8%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
75.3%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
76.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 2 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-10
76.4%
Carson Strong sacked by Tre Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 44
-5
74.7%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Doubs,Romeo) 5 yards from SJS44 to SJS49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 23
OPP 49
+10
74.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 10 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 13
OPP 39
+56
74.7%
Brandon Talton 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2327% → 26%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
73.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+2
73.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 2 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
73.6%
Will Hart punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4375% → 73%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
74.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
74.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
74.0%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+7
73.3%
Julian Diaz punt for 55 yds , Isaiah Hamilton returns for 7 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:0727% → 31%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
72.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+32
72.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 32 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
70.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Dominick MazottiSimilar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
70.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 6 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
71.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
69.3%
Matt Mercurio 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:3770% → 71%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
69.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 8 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
71.4%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+10
70.2%
Toa Taua run for 10 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
70.6%
Carson Strong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:4232% → 32%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
68.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 15 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.6%
Nick Starkel pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4072% → 73%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
71.7%
Carson Strong run for 2 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
71.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+11
70.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
71.7%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
71.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Reagan RobersonSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+2
70.7%
Carson Strong run for 2 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
72.6%
Brandon Talton 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:1531% → 31%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
69.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
68.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Kairee RobinsonSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+16
69.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 16 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
67.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for no gain to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-10
67.9%
Starkel,Nick pass incomplete to Holiness,Isaiah PENALTY SJS Holding (Stevens,Tyler) 10 yards from SJS42 to SJS32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+11
69.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 11 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
67.4%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+45
69.1%
Will Hart punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEVADA 12 NEVADA Penalty, Running Into The Kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:1071% → 75%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
71.3%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
71.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 16 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
72.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 5 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
73.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 7 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
74.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 10 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
74.2%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+52
74.9%
Brandon Talton 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19INT TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:0526% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 11 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
73.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 23 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
71.5%
run for 3 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+14
72.4%
Nick Nash run for 14 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
70.6%
Kairee Robinson run for no gain to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
70.7%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-86
70.8%
Berdale Robins 86 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Talton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:0727% → 27%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.4%
PENALTY SJS False Start (Braddock,Jermaine) 5 yards from SJS25 to SJS20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+29
73.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 29 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
70.6%
Nick Nash run for 7 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
70.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
70.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
70.2%
PENALTY SJS False Start (Holiness,Isaiah) 5 yards from NEV36 to NEV41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
70.9%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+1
72.0%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
73.5%
Will Hart punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 5:3974% → 70%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
73.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
74.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for no gain to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
72.7%
Strong,Carson pass incomplete to Turner,Cole PENALTY SJS Roughing The Passer (Fehoko,Viliami) 15 yards from NEV24 to NEV39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
75.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
76.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 4 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
75.5%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
76.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 10 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
76.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
77.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 1 yd to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
77.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 3 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-9
76.4%
Carson Strong sacked by Alii Matau for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+51
70.4%
Brandon Talton 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4427% → 31%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
72.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 23 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
69.5%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
70.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+48
69.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 48 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:1973% → 77%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.1%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
73.3%
Carson Strong run for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
72.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Targeting (Alii Matau) to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
75.2%
Devonte Lee run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
75.6%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
75.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
76.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
76.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:0130% → 43%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
70.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+13
68.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 13 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
66.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Dominick MazottiSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
66.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 12 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
65.6%
Kairee Robinson run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
66.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 8 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
70.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 5 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
57.1%
Matt Mercurio 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1965% → 62%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
64.6%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+5
64.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
63.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
61.5%
Julian Diaz punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:2341% → 43%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
59.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 17 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+18
58.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 18 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
52.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Malikhi MillerSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
53.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Malikhi MillerSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
56.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
57.2%
Will Hart punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 1:5163% → 94%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
63.1%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
62.9%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+43
61.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 43 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
69.0%
Devonte Lee run for 5 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
69.2%
Devonte Lee pass incomplete to Devonte LeeSimilar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+19
68.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 19 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
93.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 28TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3910% → 53%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 8 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
87.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 8 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 4 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+12
87.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.4%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Jermaine BraddockSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+40
87.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 40 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 4Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
84.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.7%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 1:4460% → 97%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
58.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 20 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
64.3%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
64.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 7 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
65.5%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
66.3%
NEVADA Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-7
69.3%
Carson Strong sacked by E.J. Ane for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
64.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 9
OPP 41
+12
59.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 12 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
69.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 1 yd to the SJSt 28Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+45
96.8%
Brandon Talton 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -24 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
89.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Nick Starkel for 24 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:47
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
-39.7
FG · Q4 0:03
Brandon Talton 45 yd FG GOOD
+27.4
TD · Q4 5:26
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
+25.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com