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USU

Utah State 35 at New Mexico State 13

NMSU
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.9NMSU 41.4%Ethan Albertson 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 13 · Q2 4:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:10 · Ethan Albertson 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior−20.1Home team on offense+6.1Score differential+0.9Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:46: Juwaun Price run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:02: Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 54 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +15.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:36: Derek Wright 4 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +10.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:08: Elelyon Noa 4 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +9.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:43: Justin McGriff 1 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +4.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:23NMSU 4th & 6 at USU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:57USU 4th & 1 at USU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:20USU 4th & 13 at USU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:01NMSU 4th & 10 at USU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:43USU 4th & 1 at NMSU 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−1.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−5.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:21NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−3.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:10NMSU 4th & 5 at USU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:12NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:50NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 24, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:00NMSU 4th & 3 at USU 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−5.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:13NMSU 4th & 7 at USU 7, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:13NMSU 4th & 7 at USU 7, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:47NMSU 4th & 17 at USU 35, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:47USU 4th & 1 at NMSU 48, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:46NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:06USU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:02USU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:36USU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:08USU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:43USU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:3719% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.0%
Jonah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
19.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 17 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
19.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 14 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
19.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 6 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
19.0%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+7
19.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 7 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
19.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 15 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-11
19.0%
Jonah Johnson sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the UthSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 23
+11
19.0%
Jonah Johnson run for 11 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+4
19.0%
Jonah Johnson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
22.2%
Ethan Albertson 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2678% → 77%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
21.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
21.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
21.8%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
22.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1123% → 28%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
22.6%
PENALTY NMS False Start (Mursalat,Isaiah) 5 yards from NMS23 to NMS18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+11
22.5%
Jonah Johnson run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+11
22.7%
Juwaun Price run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
22.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 13 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
23.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 8 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+13
23.2%
Jonah Johnson run for 13 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
23.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 15 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
28.4%
Juwaun Price run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2073% → 71%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
27.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-7
27.4%
Logan Bonner sacked by Donavan King for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 14 Logan Bonner fumbled, recovered by UthSt Calvin Tyler Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 13
OWN 14
0
27.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-7
27.4%
Logan Bonner sacked by Donavan King for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 14 Logan Bonner fumbled, recovered by UthSt Calvin Tyler Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 13
OWN 14
0
27.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
29.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 51 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for no gain to the NMxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:1929% → 32%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
29.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 15 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
29.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 8 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+15
29.8%
Juwaun Price run for 15 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
29.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Justice PowersSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
29.8%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
29.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
31.5%
Ethan Albertson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6DOWNS
15 plays · 72 yds · 3:1268% → 66%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
31.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 9 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
31.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 4 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
32.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
32.0%
PENALTY NMS Offside (Williams,Lazarus) 5 yards from USU36 to USU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+1
31.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 1 yd to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+1
31.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 1 yd to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
31.7%
Bonner,Logan pass incomplete to Wright,Derek PENALTY NMS Offside declined NMS Pass Interference (McCullough,D.J.) 15 yards from USU42 to NMS43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
31.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+21
31.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 21 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
30.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
30.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+4
31.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kyle Van Leeuwen for 4 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 14:34
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+5
32.2%
Bonner,Logan pass incomplete to Van Leeuwen,Kyle PENALTY NMS Offside (Ojoh,Chris) 5 yards from NMS13 to NMS08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
33.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the NMxSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -21 yds · 1:2233% → 34%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
33.4%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+3
33.2%
Jonah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 16
OWN 2
0
32.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 16
OWN 2
0
33.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:1567% → 71%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 0
OPP 33
+6
32.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
32.9%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+26
28.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 26 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9FG
19 plays · 58 yds · 5:5632% → 41%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 2 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
31.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 11 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
31.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
31.7%
Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Wyatt,Jared, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USU Pass Interference (Anyanwu,Michael) 11 yard from NMS35 to NMS46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
33.5%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 43 Jonah Johnson fumbled, recovered by NMxSt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+15
32.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Andre Grayson) to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
33.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
33.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 5 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+5
33.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 5 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
33.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 10 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
33.8%
Alex Escobar run for 1 yd to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
33.8%
Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-5
39.8%
Johnson,Jonah pass complete to Powers,Justice for 10 yards to the USU11 (Bond,Shaq), out of bounds PENALTY NMS Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Bodison,Andre) 5 yards from USU21 to USU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 14
OPP 26
+9
38.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 9 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
41.4%
Ethan Albertson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:2258% → 60%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Savon Scarver for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
40.6%
Savon Scarver run for 10 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
40.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Syrus Dumas) to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
39.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
40.5%
Logan Bonner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11END OF HALF
16 plays · 19 yds · 2:4843% → 50%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
43.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
43.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 8 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
45.1%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
46.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 5 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+9
46.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 9 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
47.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
47.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 5 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-10
46.5%
Johnson,Jonah rush for 6 yards gain to the USU32 (Reynolds,Hunter) PENALTY NMS Holding (Mursalat,Isaiah) 10 yards from USU38 to USU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 15
OPP 48
-5
44.9%
Johnson,Jonah pass complete to Price,Juwaun for 14 yards to the USU34 (Grayson,Andre) PENALTY NMS Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Mursalat,Isaiah) 5 yards from USU48 to NMS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+15
44.6%
Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Powers,Justice PENALTY USU Pass Interference (Lampkin,Cam) 15 yards from NMS47 to USU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
47.6%
Jonah Johnson sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 16
OPP 44
-6
48.9%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Andre Grayson for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 22
50
0
49.7%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 0:5555% → 70%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
45.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 14 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+19
45.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 19 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
30.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 54 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5034% → 33%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
35.8%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
32.9%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Byron Vaughns for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
32.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:3667% → 81%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+22
33.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 22 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
30.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
30.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 15 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
29.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
29.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+3
29.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.8%
Derek Wright 4 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4622% → 20%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
21.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
20.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
20.3%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:4280% → 91%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
20.0%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+18
19.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 18 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
19.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+24
19.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 24 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
18.9%
Elelyon Noa run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+1
18.9%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
19.6%
PENALTY NMS Offside (Segura,Justin) 4 yards from NMS07 to NMS03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
18.9%
PENALTY NMS Delay Of Game (Bowe Jr.,Michael) 2 yards from NMS03 to NMS01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+3
18.9%
Logan Bonner run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.5%
Elelyon Noa 4 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17DOWNS
19 plays · 68 yds · 6:5513% → 12%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
12.6%
PENALTY NMS False Start (Johnson,Eli) 5 yards from NMS25 to NMS20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
12.5%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22 Jonah Johnson fumbled, forced by Poukesi Vakauta, recovered by NMxSt Jonah JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+24
12.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 24 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
14.3%
Johnson,Jonah pass complete to Harrity,Cole for 9 yards to the USU45 (Rice,Justin), out of bounds PENALTY USU Offside (Bannerman,Jaylin) 5 yards from NMS46 to USU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+6
14.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 6 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
14.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 8 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+2
15.3%
Alex Escobar run for 2 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
15.1%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Patrick Joyner Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+5
13.9%
Johnson,Jonah rush for 1 yard gain to the USU42 (Grayson,Andre) PENALTY USU Offside (Bannerman,Jaylin) 5 yards from USU43 to USU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+13
14.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 13 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
14.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+19
13.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 19 yds to the UthSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
14.1%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
14.1%
Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
13.6%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
12.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q4 13:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
12.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 4:3093% → 99%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+51
7.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 51 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
6.6%
PENALTY USU False Start (Dolphin,Chandler) 5 yards from NMS42 to NMS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+2
6.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+1
6.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 1 yd to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+15
6.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kyle Van Leeuwen for 15 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
6.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+18
6.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 18 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
6.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Elelyon NoaSimilar
Q4 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.4%
Justin McGriff 1 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 54 yds · 2:562% → 1%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.8%
Jonah Johnson run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
1.9%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
1.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
1.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 11 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
2.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 11 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
2.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 12 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
2.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
2.2%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-7
1.2%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Shaq Bond for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 17
OPP 35
+14
1.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 14 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20END OF GAME
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:4799% → 100%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
0.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
0.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+16
0.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 16 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
0.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
0.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
0.7%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
0.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+5
0.7%
Bonner,Logan pass incomplete to Bowling,Brandon PENALTY NMS Offside (Marsh,Eric) 5 yards from NMS48 to NMS43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
0.7%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
0.7%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+10
0.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Savon Scarver for 10 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
0.3%
John Gentry run for no gain to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
0.3%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:02
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 54 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q3 9:36
Derek Wright 4 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)
-10.7
TD · Q3 5:08
Elelyon Noa 4 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com