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BOIS

Boise State 40 at Fresno State 14

FRES
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-5FRES 40.4%Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 16 - HOME 7 · Q2 0:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:41 · Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Home team on offense−10.1Score differential−5.1Pregame prior+6.4Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:45: Jonah Dalmas 27 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:50: Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 10 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +8.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q2 0:41: Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +5.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:43: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +14.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:41: Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:06FRES 4th & 2 at BOIS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:17BOIS 4th & 22 at FRES 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:38FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:57BOIS 4th & 26 at BOIS 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:45BOIS 4th & 7 at FRES 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:38FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:57BOIS 4th & 1 at FRES 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−4.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:06FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:41BOIS 4th & 1 at FRES 14, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%−1.0
    84% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:55FRES 4th & 7 at BOIS 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:54BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 22, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:36FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 27, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−3.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:30BOIS 4th & 4 at FRES 11, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−7.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:35FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 36, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:38BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:50FRES Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:43BOIS Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:41BOIS Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:48BOIS Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:10FRES Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.7%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
62.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
62.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 56 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+30
62.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 30 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
62.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+13
62.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
62.8%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+7
62.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 7 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
62.8%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 2
OPP 25
-1
62.7%
Keric Wheatfall run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:2738% → 38%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+29
62.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 29 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
62.0%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
61.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 15 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
61.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+1
62.0%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 13
OPP 20
-9
62.2%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by David Perales and Kevin Atkins for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 22
OPP 29
+47
61.9%
Jonah Dalmas 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
61.5%
Jake Haener pass intercepted Kekaula Kaniho return for no gain to the FrsSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:2739% → 42%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+40
60.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 40 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.8%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.7%
Jake Haener sacked by Jackson Cravens for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
58.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+27
58.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 27 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
59.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Kekaula KanihoSimilar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
59.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
59.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 10
OPP 48
-5
58.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
58.4%
Carson King punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
57.1%
Taylen Green run for 17 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
56.7%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+3
57.2%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-16
57.2%
Taylen Green sacked by David Perales for a loss of 16 yards to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 26
OWN 21
0
57.8%
Joel Velazquez punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3855% → 52%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
54.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 43 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 3
OWN 33
0
55.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Williams for no gain to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-8
54.9%
Jalen Cropper run for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-5
53.9%
Jake Haener sacked by Riley Whimpey for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
52.4%
Carson King punt for 40 yds, downed at the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:0447% → 51%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+48
53.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 48 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
53.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+1
53.2%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+5
53.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
53.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
49.1%
Jonah Dalmas 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
50.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
50.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-5
50.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
49.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
49.6%
Carson King punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:0353% → 55%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
47.5%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+13
47.5%
George Holani run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
46.8%
Hank Bachmeier run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+2
46.7%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
47.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-1
44.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:0147% → 57%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
47.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+5
46.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+20
46.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 20 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
48.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 22 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
48.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
56.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 10 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13INT
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:0049% → 52%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
50.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Octavius Evans, broken up by Evan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
51.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+24
51.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 24 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
48.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+30
48.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 30 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-42
47.9%
Khalil Shakir pass intercepted DaRon Bland return for 32 yds to the FrsSt 0 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
51.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
50.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Malachi Langley) to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
50.6%
Carson King punt for 41 yds , Latrell Caples returns for no gain to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:3352% → 60%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
48.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
48.7%
George Holani run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
46.9%
George Holani run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
46.4%
George Holani run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
46.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
46.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Cyrus Habibi-LikioSimilar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+8
46.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 8 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+32
40.4%
Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16END OF HALF
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:3045% → 43%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
45.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
44.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 10 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
45.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 14 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
47.6%
Jake Haener sacked by Demitri Washington for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+6
44.0%
Jake Haener run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 12
OWN 49
-7
43.0%
Jake Haener sacked by Scott Matlock for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
43.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 5 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+3
44.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+2
43.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
44.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 7 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+13
45.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 13 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
45.8%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+2
45.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
45.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly FRESNO ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
43.7%
Carson King punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:0960% → 82%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
39.6%
George Holani run for no gain to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
39.9%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+29
39.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 29 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
37.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
37.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 11 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
36.6%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
36.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Octavius Evans, broken up by DaRon BlandSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+6
37.5%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+13
35.1%
Dalmas, Jonah field goal attempt from 44 GOOD, clock 07:39, PENALTY FS roughing the kicker (SANDERS JR, C.) 13 yards to the FS14, 1ST DOWN BOISE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
32.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
32.8%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
18.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19INT
4 plays · 52 yds · 0:0023% → 26%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+39
22.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 39 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
25.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
26.4%
Jake Haener pass intercepted, touchback. JL Skinner return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for no gain Stefan Cobbs fumbled, forced by Cale Sanders Jr., recovered by BoiSt Octavius EvansSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
19.7%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
20.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
20.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 45 yds , Zane Pope returns for no gain to the FrsSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
21.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
22.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-15
22.8%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush for 2 yards to the FS44 (Skinner, JL), PENALTY FS face mask 15 yards to the FS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 16
OWN 27
0
19.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
19.9%
Carson King punt for 33 yds, downed at the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:4285% → 96%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
15.3%
Khalil Shakir run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
15.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
14.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Octavius EvansSimilar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+9
15.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 9 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
14.8%
Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
14.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
14.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
14.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
10.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+3
7.8%
Hank Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+27
4.5%
Jonah Dalmas 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
7.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Seyi OladipoSimilar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
7.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+36
7.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 36 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
8.1%
Jake Haener pass intercepted Kaonohi Kaniho return for no gain to the BoiSt 45 BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brandon Hawkins) to the BoiSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 5:1296% → 100%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
4.1%
George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+37
4.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 37 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
3.8%
George Holani run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
3.7%
George Holani run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+7
3.7%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
3.7%
George Holani run for no gain to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
3.7%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+8
3.8%
Bachmeier, Hank pass incomplete, PENALTY FS roughing passer (PERALES, David) 8 yards to the FS7, 1ST DOWN BOISE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
3.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Scott MatlockSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
0.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 6 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+10
0.3%
Jake Haener run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly, broken up by Kaonohi KanihoSimilar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
0.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.3%
Jake Haener run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 5
OWN 36
-13
0.3%
Jake Haener sacked by Divine Obichere for a loss of 13 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
0.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+5
0.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
0.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
0.3%
Tyler Crowe run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.1%
Tyler Crowe run for 7 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Malik SherrodSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+34
0.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 19 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (Alexander Teubner) to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
0.1%
HAENER, Jake pass incomplete to BROOKS, Erik (Robinson, Rodne), PENALTY BOISE pass interference (Robinson, Rodne) 15 yards to the BOISE26, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
0.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Brown for 4 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
0.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+14
0.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 14 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 5 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:43
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q2 5:50
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 10 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
+8.2
FG · Q2 0:41
Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG GOOD
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com