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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreUNLV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 4:47: Brandon Talton 52 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +0.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- FG · Q2 11:44: Brandon Talton 23 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +2.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:37: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +3.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:19: Tyson Williams 49 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Talton Kick) — NEV win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:27: Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNLV win probability +1.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:04UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.2%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.3%average punt
- Q1 12:04UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.2%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.3%average punt
- Q1 12:04NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt88.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:47NEV 4th & 7 at UNLV 35, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.9%37% to convertField goalTheir call87.8%−0.145% to makePunt87.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:55UNLV 4th & 18 at UNLV 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it11.7%−0.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q2 11:44NEV 4th & 6 at UNLV 6, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snapGo for it86.7%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call86.8%91% to makePunt83.9%−2.9average punt
- Q2 9:42UNLV 4th & 25 at UNLV 10, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snapGo for it9.5%−0.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q2 4:21UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 48, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q3 11:05UNLV 4th & 9 at NEV 44, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−0.132% to convertField goal0.4%−0.327% to makePunt0.8%average punt
- Q3 6:58UNLV 4th & 4 at NEV 41, down 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%48% to convertField goal0.3%−0.132% to makePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:51UNLV 4th & 2 at NEV 4, down 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%50% to convertField goal0.1%−0.193% to makePunt-0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 6:44NEV 4th & 5 at UNLV 5, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%92% to makePunt98.1%−0.8average punt
- Q4 0:25UNLV 4th & 11 at NEV 46, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.123% to makePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 12:55NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:37NEV Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:19NEV Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:58NEV Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:15UNLV Touchdown, down 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:08NEV Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:51UNLV Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.3%45% to convert
- Q4 12:27UNLV Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick1.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.4%45% to convert
- Q4 4:34NEV Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEVDrive 1TD7 plays · 73 yds · 2:0391% → 91%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+44
90.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 44 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:58
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+20
90.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 20 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:5110% → 10%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
90.4%
PENALTY NEV Offside NEV Offside declined 5 yards from NLV30 to NLV35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FG15 plays · 39 yds · 7:1790% → 90%
Q1 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
90.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+3
90.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+5
90.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
90.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for no gain to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
90.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
90.4%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Gardner,Jacob) 5 yards from NLV49 to NEV46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+10
90.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 10 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
90.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
90.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 3 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 3:4611% → 11%
Q1 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
89.1%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
88.9%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 1 yd to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-11
89.1%
Cameron Friel sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for a loss of 11 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+47
89.3%
Evan Silva punt for 52 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 47 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5FG13 plays · 26 yds · 4:1190% → 91%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+21
89.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 21 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+14
89.4%
Strong,Carson pass incomplete to Turner,Cole broken up by Walden Jr.,Davone PENALTY NLV Pass Interference (Walden Jr.,Davone) 14 yards from NLV16 to NLV02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.8%
PENALTY NLV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Scott,Brennon), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
89.1%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Lappin,Crishaun) 5 yards from NLV01 to NLV06. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -15 yds · 2:0210% → 9%
Q2 11:44
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-6
90.4%
Cameron Friel sacked by Kameron Toomer for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+3
90.5%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 3 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
90.7%
Evan Silva punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD8 plays · 57 yds · 3:0592% → 95%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
91.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 4 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
91.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+28
91.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 28 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
91.9%
Lee,Devonte rush for 7 yards gain to the NLV11 (Lewis,Aaron) PENALTY NEV Holding (Frost,Aaron) 10 yards from NLV18 to NLV28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+28
95.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:165% → 5%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
95.3%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 21 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9INT7 plays · 46 yds · 3:0996% → 97%
Q2 4:21
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+18
95.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 18 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+8
96.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
96.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 13 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10INT7 plays · 32 yds · 1:044% → 5%
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
96.1%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
95.8%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Shaun Grayson for 7 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+9
95.7%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 9 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12INT TD3 plays · 11 yds · 0:414% → 2%
UNLVDrive 13DOWNS10 plays · 33 yds · 3:142% → 1%
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.3%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 12 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+16
98.2%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Charles Williams for 16 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+4
98.2%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+2
99.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD13 plays · 58 yds · 4:0799% → 100%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+10
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 10 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 7 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+6
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 6 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 10 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
99.6%
Strong,Carson pass complete to Stovall,Melquan for 8 yards to the NLV00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 07:11 PENALTY NEV Holding (Gardner,Jacob) 10 yards from NLV08 to NLV18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
-5
99.6%
PENALTY NEV Delay Of Game 5 yards from NLV18 to NLV23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
+23
99.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 23 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:430% → 0%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
99.7%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 18 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+14
99.7%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 14 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
99.7%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 4 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD4 plays · 65 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
99.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 24 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 31 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:170% → 0%
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.9%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Courtney Reese for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
50
+18
99.9%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 18 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+12
99.9%
PENALTY NEV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Henley,Daiyan) 12 yards from NEV24 to NEV12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+1
99.9%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 1 yd to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 18
+14
99.9%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 14 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD5 plays · 33 yds · 0:230% → 1%
Q4 12:50
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.9%
Friel,Cameron pass incomplete to Williams,Kyle broken up by King,AJ PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (King,AJ) 15 yards from NEV33 to NEV18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
98.7%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FG13 plays · 56 yds · 5:4399% → 100%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 7 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Avery Morrow for 21 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 6 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+5
99.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 5 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Avery Morrow for no gain to the UNLV 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20INT TD5 plays · 19 yds · 2:101% → 0%
UNLVDrive 21DOWNS9 plays · 39 yds · 4:090% → 0%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
Cameron Friel sacked by Amir Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
100.0%
NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Gunter) to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+13
100.0%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Marcus Phillips Jr. for 13 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-9
100.0%
Cameron Friel sacked by Tristan Nichols for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 15
50
+4
100.0%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Courtney Reese for 4 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 11
OPP 46
+10
100.0%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kue Olotoa for 10 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:37
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
+3.3
FG · Q2 11:44
Brandon Talton 23 yd FG GOOD
+2.3
TD · Q3 14:19
Tyson Williams 49 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Talton Kick)
+1.5