2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:50 · Levi Williams pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:54: Kairee Robinson run for 9 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:29: Matt Mercurio 44 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:11: Titus Swen run for 3 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +16.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:59: Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 44 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:48: Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 12 yds for a TD — WYO win probability +10.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 12:39SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snapGo for it59.3%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.4%average punt
- Q1 8:18WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 44, tiedClose callPunted · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:45SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 36, tiedClose callPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it59.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 3:36WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snapGo for it40.5%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.6%average punt
- Q1 1:49SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 38, tiedClose callPunted · 59.3% before the snapGo for it59.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:00WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snapGo for it40.7%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.7%average punt
- Q2 8:28SJSU 4th & 10 at WYO 19, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snapGo for it65.4%−0.727% to convertField goalTheir call66.2%77% to makePunt61.6%−4.5average punt
- Q2 8:28WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt30.2%−1.2average punt
- Q2 0:44WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 31, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it25.4%−1.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.7%average punt
- Q3 8:29SJSU 4th & 4 at WYO 27, up 9Close callKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.4%48% to convertField goalTheir call76.8%−0.662% to makePunt70.4%−7.1average punt
- Q4 14:14WYO 4th & 4 at SJSU 37, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.0%48% to convertField goal13.5%−1.540% to makePunt13.2%−1.8average punt
- Q4 12:41SJSU 4th & 11 at WYO 42, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.5%−0.427% to convertField goal90.1%−0.830% to makePuntTheir call90.9%average punt
- Q4 10:30WYO 4th & 1 at SJSU 25, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.2%71% to convertField goal9.3%−0.966% to makePunt4.1%−6.1average punt
- Q4 5:42WYO 4th & 2 at SJSU 15, down 12Close callWent for it · 7.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.3%−0.456% to convertField goal7.7%83% to makePunt4.2%−3.5average punt
- Q4 4:03SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 17, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.0%−1.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%average punt
- Q4 1:50SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.8%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%average punt
- Q4 0:50WYO 4th & 25 at WYO 10, down 7Close callWent for it · 9.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.3%−<0.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 11:10SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call64.8%97% to makeGo for two64.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:18WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call37.6%97% to makeGo for two37.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:11WYO Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call25.3%97% to makeGo for two25.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1556% → 56%
WYODrive 2PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 4:2144% → 44%
Q1 12:39
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+5
56.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to Treyton Welch for 5 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
56.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 5 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+22
56.5%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 51 yds , Shamar Garrett returns for 22 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3357% → 57%
Q1 7:02
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+9
56.2%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 9 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0943% → 43%
Q1 3:36
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
57.1%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Shamar Garrett at the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4757% → 57%
Q1 3:36
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-1
57.4%
Nick Nash pass complete to Kairee Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4944% → 43%
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+2
57.2%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 50 yds , Shamar Garrett returns for 2 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD8 plays · 74 yds · 3:5057% → 65%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
57.1%
Nick Nash pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 1 yd to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+10
56.4%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 10 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
59.2%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, False Start (Shamar Garrett) to the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8INT2 plays · 5 yds · 0:4038% → 39%
SJSUDrive 9FG6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0265% → 66%
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
65.1%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 17 yds to the Wyom 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10TD7 plays · 65 yds · 3:1033% → 39%
Q2 5:18
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+54
60.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 54 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11TD8 plays · 81 yds · 3:1862% → 73%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
63.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 13 yds to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1030% → 29%
Q2 0:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+55
71.2%
Ralph Fawaz punt for 55 yds, downed at the SJSU 14 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Cobbs) to the SJSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14INT7 plays · 31 yds · 3:3829% → 29%
SJSUDrive 15FG8 plays · 56 yds · 2:5375% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1817% → 34%
SJSUDrive 17TD10 plays · 77 yds · 4:0776% → 87%
Q3 7:06
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
76.4%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 10 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
78.1%
NEVENS, Tyler rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the WYO32 (HEARN, Azizi). PENALTY SJS Holding on ROBBINS, Trevor enforced 10 yards from the WYO36 to the WYO46 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 18
OPP 44
+44
86.5%
Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 44 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18DOWNS9 plays · 43 yds · 3:3815% → 15%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.8%
Levi Williams pass complete to Parker Christensen for 2 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3389% → 90%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
88.5%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 22 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20DOWNS15 plays · 84 yds · 6:5911% → 8%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
87.8%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 6 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
89.7%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
88.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Treyton Welch for 5 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
88.6%
Levi Williams sacked by Viliami Fehoko for 0 yards to the SJSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3995% → 96%
Q4 4:03
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
95.7%
Will Hart punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ayden Eberhardt at the SJSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD5 plays · 49 yds · 1:205% → 16%
SJSUDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5893% → 95%
Q4 1:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-2
95.0%
Will Hart punt for 42 yds , Ayden Eberhardt returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24DOWNS4 plays · -15 yds · 1:008% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:11
Titus Swen run for 3 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q4 2:48
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 12 yds for a TD
-10.7
TD · Q3 2:59
Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 44 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+9.6