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BOIS

Boise State 28 at Colorado State 19

CSU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:26 · Joel Velazquez punt for 54 yds, downed at the ColSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense+6.7Pregame prior−4.1Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential+3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:52: Cayden Camper 20 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:50: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 9 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +7.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:51: Octavius Evans run for 13 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +13.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 4:01: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 11 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +19.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:30: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 51 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +21.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 9:48CSU 4th & 4 at BOIS 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 30, down 3
    Close callPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:17BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:52CSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 2, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−6.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:13BOIS 4th & 8 at CSU 41, down 13
    Close callPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:59CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 27, up 13
    Close callPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:09BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:59CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:59BOIS 4th & 4 at CSU 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:11CSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−6.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:26BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 44, down 9
    Close callPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:55CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 4, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−2.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:09CSU 4th & 19 at CSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−4.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:44CSU 4th & 5 at BOIS 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−11.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:21BOIS 4th & 15 at BOIS 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−7.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:23CSU 4th & 9 at midfield, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:46CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:32BOIS 4th & 2 at CSU 25, up 8
    Close callWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:31CSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:50BOIS Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:51BOIS Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:01BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:30BOIS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:1241% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
41.4%
Todd Centeio run for 17 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
41.4%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+3
41.4%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+6
41.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 6 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
41.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 14 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
41.4%
David Bailey run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
41.4%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
41.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 3 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+9
41.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 9 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
41.4%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
41.4%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
41.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
43.9%
Cayden Camper 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1456% → 55%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
43.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
43.7%
Khalil Shakir run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
43.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
44.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:5944% → 48%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
44.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 14 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
44.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
44.5%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+22
44.1%
Todd Centeio run for 22 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
48.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for 30 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0853% → 50%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
47.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 5 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-1
47.2%
Khalil Shakir run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-29
47.7%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right complete for 29 yards to VAN BUREN, Andrew caught at the BSU37 and advanced to the CSU46 (BLACKBURN, Henry). PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on EVANS, Octavius enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards to the BSU12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+10
47.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 10 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+10
47.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 10 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+11
49.6%
Joel Velazquez punt for 37 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for 11 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:2550% → 58%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+34
49.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 34 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
50.0%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+1
50.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 1 yd to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+9
49.6%
Todd Centeio run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
50.0%
David Bailey run for no gain to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
50.0%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
49.6%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q1 0:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
57.9%
Cayden Camper 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:3044% → 43%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.9%
Khalil Shakir run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.7%
Khalil Shakir run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
56.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
56.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (George Holani) to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+10
56.7%
George Holani run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+15
56.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 15 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
57.0%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
55.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+15
55.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete pass complete to Octavius Evans for 15 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
56.9%
Joel Velazquez punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1460% → 60%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
59.7%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+6
59.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 6 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+8
60.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 62 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 8 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:5042% → 40%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
58.4%
Stefan Cobbs run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
58.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
58.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
58.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+9
60.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 53 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for 9 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1062% → 63%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
62.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 6 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+7
62.3%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.3%
WRIGHT, Dante rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the CSU35 (SKINNER, JL). PENALTY CSU Holding on MCBRIDE, Trey BSU Targeting on SKINNER, JL , Offsetting penalties [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.3%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
63.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+3
62.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+3
62.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
62.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 56 yds, downed at the BoiSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
16 plays · 97 yds · 6:0937% → 46%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
63.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+4
63.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 4 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+10
63.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
62.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 12 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
62.2%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
62.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
61.9%
HABIBI-LIKIO, Cyrus rush up the middle for a loss of 5 yards to the BSU35 (PHILLIPS, Devin). PENALTY CSU Face mask on PHILLIPS, Devin enforced 15 yards from the BSU40 to the CSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
60.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
61.0%
Khalil Shakir run for 3 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
60.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+10
61.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
59.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 13 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
59.6%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Cam'Ron Carter for 0 yards to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 18
OPP 24
0
60.7%
SHAKIR, Khalil pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Riley broken up by FRANCIS, Tywan at the CSU0. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on FRANCIS, Tywan enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the CSU9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 18
OPP 24
0
60.7%
SHAKIR, Khalil pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Riley broken up by FRANCIS, Tywan at the CSU0. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on FRANCIS, Tywan enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the CSU9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
53.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 9 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 1:3159% → 64%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
59.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
59.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 8 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
60.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 29 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
62.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+19
63.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 19 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
63.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Divine Obichere) to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
63.7%
David Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
64.2%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
62.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
63.5%
Cayden Camper 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3436% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.4%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
64.1%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
64.0%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
63.4%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
62.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
65.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 54 yds, downed at the ColSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3167% → 67%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
66.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 3Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+1
66.3%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 4Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
65.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+30
66.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 64 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 30 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:0435% → 50%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
65.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 14 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
63.3%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
63.3%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
50.2%
Octavius Evans run for 13 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:4257% → 56%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.6%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
56.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 17 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
59.0%
CENTEIO, Todd pass to the right complete for 39 yards to MCBRIDE, Trey caught at the BSU30 and advanced to the BSU17 (BIGGERS, Caleb). PENALTY CSU Holding on WESLEY, Barry enforced 10 yards from the CSU44 to the CSU34 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+1
56.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 19
OWN 35
0
56.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 19
OWN 35
+5
54.9%
CENTEIO, Todd sacked for a loss of 4 yards at the CSU31 (IRWIN, Shane). PENALTY BSU Offsides on IRWIN, Shane enforced 5 yards from the CSU35 to the CSU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
55.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 14
OWN 40
-5
54.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Thomas Pannunzio) to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 19
OWN 35
0
56.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
13 plays · 97 yds · 4:0843% → 68%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
57.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+4
57.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+10
59.0%
Hank Bachmeier run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+31
56.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
50
+4
52.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+12
52.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 12 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
51.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 4 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+6
50.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
50.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
50.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+7
52.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 7 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
50.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
31.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 11 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1740% → 48%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
40.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 19 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
43.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for 14 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
44.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+22
44.9%
Todd Centeio run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah Bagnah) to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
47.0%
David Bailey run for no gain to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
47.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
44.5%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
48.3%
Cayden Camper 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2359% → 57%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.6%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
42.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 15 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
38.4%
George Holani run for no gain to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
39.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
39.0%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Toby McBride for 0 yards to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
43.2%
Joel Velazquez punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5848% → 45%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
47.6%
Dante Wright run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+16
47.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 16 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
51.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
51.2%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 9
50
0
48.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 9
50
0
45.1%
punt blocked by Brandon Hawkins blocked by Brandon HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:5362% → 85%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
37.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+1
36.0%
Khalil Shakir run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
36.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+51
15.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 51 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4421% → 17%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.0%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
21.0%
Todd Centeio run for 7 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
21.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 10 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
23.6%
Dante Wright run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
21.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
20.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
17.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23DOWNS
20 plays · 67 yds · 7:1485% → 97%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
15.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+3
15.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+8
15.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 8 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
14.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+23
14.5%
Khalil Shakir run for 23 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
8.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+8
7.6%
Octavius Evans run for 8 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
6.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
6.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+3
6.4%
Tyler Crowe run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
5.8%
Jack Sears run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+2
3.2%
Tyler Crowe run for 2 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+2
3.2%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+5
3.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 2
OPP 25
-1
2.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:324% → 4%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
3.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
3.8%
Todd Centeio sacked by Isaiah Bagnah for 0 yards to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+15
3.7%
CENTEIO, Todd pass to the right incomplete intended for MCCULLOUCH, Ty thrown to the CSU45; QB hurried by CRAVENS, Jackson. PENALTY BSU Roughing the Passer on CRAVENS, Jackson enforced 15 yards from the CSU21 to the CSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
4.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:30
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 51 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-21.4
TD · Q3 4:01
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 11 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-19.2
TD · Q3 10:51
Octavius Evans run for 13 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com