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NEV

Nevada 32 at Fresno State 34

FRES
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameTD-12.5FRES 61.9%Carson Strong pass complete to JustinLockhart for 30 yds for a TD(Two-Point Conversion failed )AWAY 16 - HOME 21 · Q3 8:46
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Q3 8:46 · Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense+0.9Pregame prior+4.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:21: Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 11 yds for a TD NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Devonte Lee) declined (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +11.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:46: Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEV win probability +12.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 4:50: Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +13.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:56: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +21.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 12:37: Cesar Silva 47 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +11.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:22FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:31NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:04FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:37NEV 4th & 11 at FRES 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:04NEV 4th & 9 at FRES 38, down 11
    Close callPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:10FRES 4th & 11 at NEV 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:50NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%−1.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:03FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:37FRES 4th & 7 at NEV 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:30NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 22, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:48FRES 4th & 3 at NEV 25, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−5.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:21NEV 4th & 5 at FRES 20, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%−0.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:05FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:41FRES 4th & 3 at NEV 43, up 8
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:08FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:11FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:10NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:21FRES Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:46NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:50FRES Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:56NEV Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:02NEV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.6%−12.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
61.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
61.0%
Taua, Toa rush for no gain to the NEVADA35 (GATES, Elijah), PENALTY FS OF 5 yards to the NEVADA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
61.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+1
61.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
61.0%
Julian Diaz punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
61.0%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
61.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
60.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
60.8%
Carson King punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
60.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
60.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-10
60.6%
NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Romeo Doubs) to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+4
60.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 4 yds to the FRESNOST 48 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Romeo Doubs) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-3
60.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
61.0%
Julian Diaz punt for 50 yds, downed at the FrsSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:2261% → 60%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
60.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start ( Yards) to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
60.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+9
60.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
60.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
60.9%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
60.6%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
60.4%
Carson King punt for 40 yds, downed at the Nevad 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:1340% → 40%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
60.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 10 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
60.2%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+19
60.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
59.8%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+6
60.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+12
60.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
59.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
59.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
60.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
59.6%
Brandon Talton 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2859% → 62%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
58.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
62.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 64 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
61.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the FRESNOST 46 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, OF ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
61.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+8
61.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+15
60.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
60.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 3 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-4
60.5%
Carson Strong sacked by David Perales for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 11
OPP 23
-6
61.1%
Carson Strong pass intercepted DaRon Bland return for 6 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 3:1962% → 69%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
61.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 12 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
62.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
62.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Mikael BradfordSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+13
61.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 13 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, OF (Berdale Robins) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+42
62.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 42 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
63.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 2 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
63.5%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+5
63.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 5 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
63.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 9 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.7%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
67.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
66.9%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
66.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 25 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
65.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Devonte LeeSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
66.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+2
66.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
67.2%
Carson Strong punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
69.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds Jalen Cropper fumbled, forced by Jordan Lee, recovered by Nevad Lawson HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4134% → 41%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
66.2%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+12
66.6%
Strong, Carson pass incomplete to Lockhart, Justi, PENALTY FS pass interference (LUX, Bralyn) 12 yards to the FS2, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
62.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 17 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
64.2%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-4
64.4%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+12
62.5%
HAENER, Jake pass incomplete to POPE, Zane, PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (Sanders, Bentle) 12 yards to the NEVADA47, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
64.7%
Jalen Cropper run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
64.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 4 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-6
64.1%
Jake Haener run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 48 Jake Haener fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Dontae BullSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
62.1%
Carson King punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:4937% → 36%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
63.2%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 15Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
63.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+11
62.8%
Devonte Lee run for 11 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
62.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
62.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+16
61.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
60.3%
Strong, Carson pass incomplete to Horton, Tory, PENALTY NEVADA holding 10 yards to the NEVADA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 20
OWN 48
-8
61.6%
Carson Strong sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 28
OWN 40
+21
62.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 21 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+6
62.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
63.9%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the FrsSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
65.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+3
67.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
67.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
67.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
66.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jordan Mims FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 5
OWN 48
-5
65.5%
KING, Carson punt 39 yards to the NEVADA13, downed, PENALTY FS illegal formation 5 yards to the FS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
64.3%
Carson King punt for 51 yds , Jamaal Bell returns for no gain to the Nevad 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
66.3%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+11
66.4%
Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
65.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3966% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
65.5%
Jordan Mims run for 26 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
67.9%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+13
68.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 13 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
68.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 9 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
79.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 11 yds for a TD NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Devonte Lee) declined (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2923% → 38%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
76.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
75.9%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
75.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
77.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+14
77.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 14 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
75.4%
Carson Strong sacked by Leonard Payne Jr. and Devo Bridges for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
75.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for no gain to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+13
76.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 13 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
74.4%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+30
61.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 3:5269% → 87%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
69.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+16
69.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 16 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
69.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 15 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
71.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 3
50
+5
72.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. for 5 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
72.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 11 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
73.2%
Jordan Mims run for 23 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
73.1%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
86.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:4616% → 39%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
84.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-5
83.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
83.6%
Carson Strong run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+28
83.5%
Toa Taua run for 28 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
81.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-15
81.2%
Strong, Carson pass complete to Horton, Tory for 11 yards to the FS17 (HOUSTON, Justin;FREE, Wylan), PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (Turner, Cole) 15 yards to the FS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 20
OPP 43
-15
83.9%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 35
OWN 42
+15
84.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 15 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 20
OPP 43
+15
84.7%
Strong, Carson pass incomplete to Horton, Tory, PENALTY FS pass interference 15 yards to the FS28, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
81.2%
NEVADA Penalty, illegal shift (Melquan Stovall) to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+4
82.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+6
81.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+12
82.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 12 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
61.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:1971% → 86%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
71.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 22 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
73.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 10 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
74.6%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
74.5%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
75.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Raymond Pauwels Jr.Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
75.4%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
74.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
85.9%
Cesar Silva 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
83.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 1 yd to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
83.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-5
83.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-3
84.8%
Carson Strong sacked by Arron Mosby for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
85.6%
Julian Diaz punt for 42 yds, downed at the FrsSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:1688% → 93%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
88.1%
Jake Haener sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+15
87.1%
Jordan Mims run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
88.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
88.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 9 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+12
89.0%
Jordan Mims run for 12 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
89.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
89.1%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
88.5%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
93.3%
Cesar Silva 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 1:218% → 12%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
92.5%
Strong, Carson pass incomplete, PENALTY FS roughing passer (BRIDGES, Devo) 15 yards to the NEVADA37, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
91.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Berdale Robins) to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 25
OWN 22
+30
92.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 30 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
90.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 23 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.1%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
89.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
90.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin Lockhart, broken up by LJ EarlySimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
88.1%
Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:1693% → 94%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
93.1%
MIMS, Jordan rush for 5 yards to the FS30 (Lee, Jordan), PENALTY FS holding 10 yards to the FS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
93.0%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
92.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-1
92.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+17
94.1%
Carson King punt for 51 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 17 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
88.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+3
87.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 3 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-9
88.0%
Carson Strong sacked by David Perales for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line Carson Strong fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Evan Williams , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1297% → 97%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
50
+2
96.8%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
97.3%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+1
97.3%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
96.9%
Carson King punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 0:515% → 22%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+21
95.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 21 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
94.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory Horton, broken up by Emari PaitSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+21
94.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 21 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
92.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 24 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
89.3%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
89.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner, broken up by Wylan FreeSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
78.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+21.9
TD · Q4 14:56
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-21.4
TD · Q3 4:50
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
+13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com