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CSU

Colorado State 24 at Utah State 26

USU
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2021 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:10 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 55 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 3 yds to the UthSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+21.0+10.50−10.5−21.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+9.5Pregame prior−4.1Garbage-time factor+1.7Score differential+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:21: David Bailey run for 4 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:11: David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:23: Connor Coles 42 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +8.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:05: Cayden Camper 40 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:31: Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 13 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +32.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:16CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:16USU 4th & 1 at USU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:27USU 4th & 10 at USU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:19CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:48USU 4th & 17 at USU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:19USU 4th & 5 at CSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    49.9%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:30USU 4th & 14 at CSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:33USU 4th & 10 at CSU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:53USU 4th & 4 at CSU 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−1.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:23USU 4th & 25 at CSU 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−3.6
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−9.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:10CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:07USU 4th & 17 at USU 20, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−4.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:18CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 41, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−2.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:43USU 4th & 19 at USU 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−4.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:35CSU 4th & 5 at USU 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−1.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:47USU 4th & 1 at USU 44, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:05CSU 4th & 9 at USU 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−8.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:03USU 4th & 3 at CSU 17, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%−1.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−12.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:45USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:21CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:11CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:31CSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4461% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.0%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
39.0%
David Bailey run for 10 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
39.0%
Todd Centeio sacked by Patrick Joyner Jr. for 0 yards to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+7
39.0%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+6
39.0%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
39.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:4940% → 41%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
40.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 19 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.0%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
40.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+5
40.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
40.2%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
40.0%
Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
40.3%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
40.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
40.0%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
40.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thomas Pannunzio at the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4059% → 59%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+18
40.6%
David Bailey run for 18 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
40.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+1
41.1%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
41.2%
Todd Centeio pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4INT
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:4442% → 43%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
42.1%
Pailate Makakona run for 13 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
42.3%
Savon Scarver run for 10 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.6%
Logan Bonner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4459% → 58%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
41.1%
David Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
41.4%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+1
41.2%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
42.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:3142% → 43%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
42.0%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+2
42.1%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+15
41.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 15 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
42.3%
Logan Bonner run for 13 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
42.9%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
42.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for no gain to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
42.3%
Logan Bonner sacked by Mohamed Kamara for 0 yards to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 17
OWN 36
+45
42.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the ColSt 35 , returns for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:4757% → 58%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
42.8%
David Bailey run for 16 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
41.7%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
41.7%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
41.8%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
41.7%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:1645% → 52%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
44.7%
Pailate Makakona run for 10 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
45.6%
Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+13
46.2%
John Gentry run for 13 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
46.5%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Derek thrown to the CSU0. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced 15 yards to the CSU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
52.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 25 yds for a TD (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:1950% → 59%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
50.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
50.3%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+12
50.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 12 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.7%
David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+20
49.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 20 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
48.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
48.6%
David Bailey run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+18
52.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Jordan Kress for 18 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
49.2%
David Bailey run for 9 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+2
49.2%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
49.2%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 15Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+11
49.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 11 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.1%
David Bailey run for 4 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:5646% → 56%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
46.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 23Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+34
46.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 34 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
48.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
48.7%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
48.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+38
55.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 38 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0844% → 60%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+24
55.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 24 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
53.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+26
53.8%
David Bailey run for 26 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
52.0%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+15
52.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Justice McCoy for 15 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.4%
David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12FG
10 plays · 13 yds · 3:3150% → 52%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
50.4%
Pailate Makakona run for no gain to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
50.5%
Logan Bonner sacked by Manny Jones for 0 yards to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 18
OPP 49
+10
47.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Pailate Makakona for 10 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
51.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 15
OPP 29
0
50.8%
Logan Bonner sacked by Manny Jones and Scott Patchan for 0 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 21
OPP 35
0
49.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 21
OPP 35
+7
48.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to John Gentry for 7 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
51.7%
Connor Coles 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5757% → 59%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
56.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
56.6%
BONNER, Logan pass up the middle incomplete intended for BOWLING, Brandon thrown to the CSU10. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on FLOYD, Robert enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the CSU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
56.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
56.6%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
55.3%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
59.1%
Connor Coles 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:3060% → 69%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
60.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 13 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
60.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 7 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
62.6%
Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
62.5%
BONNER, Logan pass up the middle incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Derek thrown to the CSU15. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced 15 yards to the CSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
62.9%
Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
61.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+8
60.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 8 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+9
60.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 9 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
63.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 6 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
63.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Targeting Roughing the Passer on AMINA, Bam enforced half the distance from the goal ( Yards) to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.1%
Logan Bonner sacked by Tywan Francis for 0 yards to the ColSt 23Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 23
+1
62.2%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
0
60.8%
Logan Bonner sacked by Mohamed Kamara and Troy Golden for 0 yards to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 25
+42
69.4%
Connor Coles 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1331% → 27%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.8%
David Bailey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
67.0%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
68.0%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-5
66.6%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+3
69.2%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+3
73.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 55 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 3 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0372% → 72%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
72.4%
Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+30
72.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 30 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
74.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Deven Thompkins) to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
73.0%
Pailate Makakona run for no gain to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
72.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
71.6%
Logan Bonner sacked by Cam'Ron Carter for 0 yards to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
72.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4927% → 23%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
73.6%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
74.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
76.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:3576% → 77%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+18
75.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 18 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
76.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
75.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 7 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+9
75.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
77.5%
Logan Bonner sacked by Scott Patchan for 0 yards to the UthSt 37Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-2
76.2%
Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
74.7%
Logan Bonner sacked by Toby McBride for 0 yards to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
76.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0822% → 19%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
77.8%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
78.3%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+15
78.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 15 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
76.6%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
75.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
75.7%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
76.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+1
81.0%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4882% → 83%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
81.5%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
82.0%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+5
81.4%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right complete for 6 yards to THOMPKINS, Deven caught at the USU44 and advanced to the USU44 (PANNUNZIO, Thomas). PENALTY Before the snap, CSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the USU38 to the USU43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
81.8%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+46
82.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 46 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:4216% → 29%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
84.2%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+10
83.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Marcus Moore) to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+43
82.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 43 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
78.2%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
78.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
80.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
70.9%
Cayden Camper 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:0283% → 91%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
82.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+9
82.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 9 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
84.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 5
50
+6
84.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
85.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Carson Terrell for 20 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
85.5%
BONNER, Logan pass up the middle incomplete intended for BOWLING, Brandon thrown to the CSU10. PENALTY CSU Offsides on FRANCIS, Tywan enforced 5 yards from the CSU24 to the CSU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 5
OPP 19
0
85.5%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
85.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-1
88.5%
Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 17Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
90.5%
Connor Coles 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:2111% → 45%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
89.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 11 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
88.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+17
87.8%
Todd Centeio run for 17 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+28
87.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 28 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
54.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 13 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:2974% → 88%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.1%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
73.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 8 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
74.6%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
83.2%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
84.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-3
88.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26MISSED FG
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:4325% → 26%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
74.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+15
78.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 15 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+42
73.8%
Cayden Camper 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:31
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 13 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK)
-32.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+26.2
TD · Q2 5:11
David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD (Cayden Camper KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com