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SDSU

San Diego State 20 at Air Force 14

AF
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:26 · Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:05: Chance Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +19.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:07: Warren Bryan pass incomplete (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +10.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:59: Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +12.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:59: Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the SDSt 28 — SDSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:18: Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis — AF win probability +11.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:26SDSU 4th & 5 at AF 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:26AF 4th & 1 at AF 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56AF 4th & 4 at SDSU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:25SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:10AF 4th & 4 at AF 18, down 3
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:10SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:27AF 4th & 1 at AF 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.1%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:18SDSU 4th & 1 at AF 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−1.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:54SDSU 4th & 15 at AF 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:08AF 4th & 11 at AF 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:04SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:07AF 4th & 4 at SDSU 13, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−0.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    -2.2%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:32SDSU 4th & 4 at AF 40, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−2.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:59AF 4th & 3 at SDSU 3, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%−0.4
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−5.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:18SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 32, up 6
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:35AF 4th & 15 at AF 8, down 6
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:42SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:05SDSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:59AF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5257% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.7%
Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
56.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
56.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4243% → 43%
Q1 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
56.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 6 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
56.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+4
56.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
56.6%
Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:3057% → 57%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.6%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
56.7%
PENALTY SDS Offside (Thomas,Cameron) 5 yards from AF 30 to AF 35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
56.7%
Brandon Lewis run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
56.8%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
56.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+8
56.7%
Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
56.9%
Omar Fattah run for no gain to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
56.9%
Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+3
56.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
56.6%
Carson Bay punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:3144% → 43%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
56.3%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
56.4%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Rudolph,Jay) 1 yard from SDS02 to SDS01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+6
56.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
56.6%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for no gain to the SDSt 7Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
57.1%
Matt Araiza punt for 81 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1556% → 55%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
55.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
55.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+4
55.2%
DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
54.9%
Carson Bay punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0045% → 45%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
55.3%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
55.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for no gain to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+5
55.5%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
55.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:4355% → 56%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
55.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 14 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
55.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the AFA 35 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, forced by Dallas Branch, recovered by AFA Jake Spiewak for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
55.6%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
55.5%
Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
55.2%
Dane Kinamon run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 14:27
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
55.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 42 yds · 5:4547% → 55%
Q2 14:27
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+4
52.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
52.9%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
52.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 7 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
53.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+5
53.2%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Bellinger,Daniel) 5 yards from AF 23 to AF 28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+13
53.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 13 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
52.6%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
52.6%
Lucas Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
53.2%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
54.1%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.6%
Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
52.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2145% → 44%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.1%
Dane Kinamon run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
45.5%
PENALTY SDS Offside (Sims,Nassir) 5 yards from AF 29 to AF 34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
46.1%
Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
46.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
46.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Caden BlumSimilar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+2
43.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to DeAndre Hughes for 2 yds DeAndre Hughes fumbled, forced by Trenton Thompson, recovered by SDSt Noah AvingerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 12 yds · 4:2759% → 66%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
40.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
40.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+8
41.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
40.7%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 3 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+10
40.7%
Johnson,Lucas pass incomplete to Shavers,Tyrell PENALTY SDS Holding (Bellinger,Daniel) 10 yards from AF 26 to AF 36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+4
41.2%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+5
41.4%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Uluave,Alama) 5 yards from AF 32 to AF 37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 18
OPP 37
+5
41.9%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Crenshaw-Dickson,Brandon) 5 yards from AF 37 to AF 42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 23
OPP 42
+8
42.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 8 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+51
34.1%
Matt Araiza 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5437% → 35%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.7%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
37.1%
Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
34.5%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4868% → 89%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
32.4%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
32.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+20
31.9%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 20 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
30.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
30.7%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+32
31.2%
Chance Bell run for 32 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.3%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 2:5717% → 15%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
16.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
16.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 11 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
17.5%
PENALTY SDS Offside (Banks,Keshawn) 5 yards from AF 34 to AF 39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
18.0%
Fattah,Omar rush for 2 yards gain to the AF 41 (Tavai,Jonah) PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Smalley,Everett) 15 yards from AF 39 to AF 24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+7
17.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+7
17.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
17.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
14.9%
Carson Bay punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0490% → 91%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-11
10.2%
Lucas Johnson sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the SDSt 16Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 21
OWN 16
+4
10.4%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+5
10.7%
Lucas Johnson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+20
9.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 67 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 43 , Micah Davis returns for 20 yds to the AFA 45 AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:5713% → 24%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
12.7%
Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
12.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+6
13.1%
Omar Fattah run for 6 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
13.1%
Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
13.2%
Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
14.3%
Micah Davis run for 9 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
14.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
14.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the SDSt 19Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
14.2%
Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+5
13.3%
Warren Bryan run for 5 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 4
OPP 13
0
23.6%
Warren Bryan pass incomplete (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:3085% → 91%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
15.4%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
14.7%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
15.0%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
14.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+11
13.8%
Greg Bell run for 11 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
13.4%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
13.4%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Martinez,Chris) 5 yards from AF 42 to AF 47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+9
13.5%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+2
13.4%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
9.5%
Matt Araiza punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
15 plays · 89 yds · 6:3316% → 31%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
15.6%
Zachary Larrier run for 16 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
16.1%
Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
15.5%
Omar Fattah run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+9
15.3%
Warren Bryan run for 9 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
16.8%
Warren Bryan pass complete to Jake Spiewak for 31 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
19.7%
Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
20.0%
Brandon Lewis run for 7 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
18.6%
Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
19.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-2
19.4%
Warren Bryan sacked by Cameron Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+14
16.9%
Warren Bryan pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 14 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
19.9%
Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 4Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
19.9%
Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the SDSt 3Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
18.6%
Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Jake SpiewakSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.6%
Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4185% → 89%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.2%
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
14.9%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
16.0%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
11.2%
Matt Araiza punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jake Spiewak at the AFA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4323% → 15%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
22.9%
Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
22.3%
Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Jake SpiewakSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+3
21.2%
Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 7
OWN 16
-8
20.0%
Bryan,Warren pass complete to Lewis,Brandon for 14 yards to the AF 30 (Lakalaka,Seyddrick) PENALTY AF Chop Block 8 yards from AF 16 to AF 08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
14.9%
Carson Bay punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:3595% → 96%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
5.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
5.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 9 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
4.8%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-1
4.8%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+5
4.3%
PENALTY AF Offside (Brockman,Elijah) 5 yards from AF 40 to AF 35. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:05
Chance Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
-19.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:59
Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the SDSt 28
-12.6
TD · Q4 3:59
Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com