Try the model
USU

Utah State 28 at UNLV 24

UNLV
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:27 · Evan Silva punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense−31.0Score differential−16.1Pregame prior−2.6Garbage-time factor−13.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 11:16: Daniel Gutierrez 26 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +2.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:12: Connor Coles 52 yd FG MISSED — USU win probability +5.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:18: Charles Williams 5 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick) — USU win probability +3.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:29: Connor Coles 44 yd FG MISSED — USU win probability +3.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:58: Connor Coles 41 yd FG MISSED — USU win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 8USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:16UNLV 4th & 7 at USU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:57USU 4th & 1 at UNLV 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−4.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:31UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 9, down 11
    Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:29UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:07USU 4th & 2 at UNLV 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:10UNLV 4th & 23 at UNLV 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:12USU 4th & 30 at UNLV 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:38USU 4th & 17 at USU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−3.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:55UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:29USU 4th & 20 at UNLV 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:27UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 35, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:38USU 4th & 15 at USU 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:58USU 4th & 6 at UNLV 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:46UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:46USU 4th & 1 at USU 49, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.7%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:10UNLV 4th & 16 at UNLV 19, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:03USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:4435% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
35.1%
Charles Williams run for 15 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Logan Bonner) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
35.1%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen for 1 yd to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
35.1%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+28
35.1%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 28 yds to the UTAHST 32 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Logan Bonner) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
35.1%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+20
35.1%
Charles Williams run for 20 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Logan Bonner) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
35.1%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
35.1%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
35.1%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Kilinahe Mendiola-JensenSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
37.1%
Daniel Gutierrez 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
34.8%
Charles Williams 75 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:3765% → 66%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
34.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
34.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+13
34.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 13 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+22
34.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 22 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
34.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
33.9%
Logan Bonner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:2036% → 35%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
35.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Targeting (AJ Vongphachanh) to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
35.6%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UthSt 5Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
35.6%
Cameron Friel run for 4 yds to the UthSt 1 Cameron Friel fumbled, forced by Shaq Bond, recovered by UNLV Charles WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.3%
Charles Williams 1 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)Similar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
34.7%
PENALTY NLV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jenkins,Steve) 15 yards from NLV35 to NLV20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 5:4266% → 67%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
33.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+17
33.8%
Deven Thompkins run for 17 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
33.5%
Deven Thompkins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+1
33.6%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd to the UNLV 47 Logan Bonner fumbled, forced by Naki Fahina, recovered by UthSt Chandler DolphinSimilar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+14
33.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 14 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
33.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Savon Scarver for 9 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+22
33.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 22 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UNLV 1Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UNLV 2Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNLV 1Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.6%
Logan Bonner run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2633% → 32%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
32.8%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
32.8%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+6
32.3%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 6 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+20
31.5%
Evan Silva punt for 47 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 20 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:3869% → 69%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
30.8%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+37
30.7%
Deven Thompkins 37 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:2432% → 31%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.3%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
32.3%
Charles Williams run for 14 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
33.0%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Kilinahe Mendiola-JensenSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-10
32.8%
Friel,Cameron pass complete to Reese,Courtney for 22 yards to the USU38 (Jackson,Zahodri; Reynolds,Hunter) PENALTY NLV Holding (McDaniel,Daviyon) 10 yards from NLV40 to NLV30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+9
32.2%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Chad Magyar for 9 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
32.1%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
31.0%
Evan Silva punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:2269% → 69%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
30.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 27 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
30.1%
John Gentry run for 6 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
30.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+2
30.1%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+1
30.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Carson Terrell for 1 yd to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:5732% → 28%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
31.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen for 1 yd to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+1
31.6%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+21
30.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 21 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
32.9%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
32.9%
Tate Martell run for no gain to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-15
32.5%
Friel,Cameron pass complete to Griffin,Zyell for 24 yards to the USU21 (Reynolds,Hunter) PENALTY NLV Tripping (Garcia,Julio) 15 yards from USU45 to NLV40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 23
OWN 40
0
31.0%
Cameron Friel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 23
OWN 40
0
28.4%
Evan Silva punt for 45 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for no gain to the UthSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 3:5870% → 81%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
29.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 11 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
29.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+31
29.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 31 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
28.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+18
28.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 18 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
28.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 13 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
28.4%
Tyler Jr.,Calvin rush for 9 yards gain to the NLV06 (Williams,Nohl; Ajiake,Austin) PENALTY USU Holding (Edwards,Alfred) 10 yards from NLV15 to NLV25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 20
OPP 25
0
28.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 20
OPP 25
0
28.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 20
OPP 25
-5
29.0%
PENALTY USU False Start (Dolphin,Chandler) 5 yards from NLV25 to NLV30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 25
OPP 30
-10
29.1%
Bonner,Logan pass complete to Thompkins,Deven for 22 yards to the NLV08 (Williams,Nohl) PENALTY USU Holding (Dolphin,Chandler) 10 yards from NLV30 to NLV40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 35
OPP 40
+5
25.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 30
OPP 35
+52
19.0%
Connor Coles 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1224% → 22%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
23.6%
Friel,Cameron pass incomplete to Williams,Kyle PENALTY NLV Holding (Garcia,Julio) 10 yards from NLV35 to NLV25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+6
23.0%
Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
23.1%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Kilinahe Mendiola-JensenSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+3
21.9%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:4380% → 81%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+42
20.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 27 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Bryce Jackson) to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
19.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
20.0%
Logan Bonner run for 6 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 16
OPP 24
+18
20.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 18 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
18.6%
Deven Thompkins 6 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:4622% → 21%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
21.8%
Charles Williams run for 7 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+8
22.5%
Charles Williams run for 8 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
23.0%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 18 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
23.8%
Charles Williams run for 14 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
24.4%
Charles Williams run for 8 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+14
24.4%
Charles Williams run for 14 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
24.4%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen for 3 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.2%
Charles Williams 5 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 3:4084% → 87%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
16.3%
Pailate Makakona run for 6 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
16.5%
Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
15.8%
Pailate Makakona run for 11 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
15.2%
PENALTY USU False Start (Dolphin,Chandler) 5 yards from USU48 to USU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+5
15.7%
Pailate Makakona run for 5 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+3
12.9%
Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 17
OWN 41
0
13.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
13.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4316% → 14%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
16.2%
Charles Williams run for 17 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.0%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Charles WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-15
16.5%
Friel,Cameron pass complete to Griffin,Zyell for 12 yards to the NLV49 (Gilliam,Cash) PENALTY NLV Pass Interference (Williams,Kyle) 15 yards from NLV37 to NLV22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 25
OWN 22
+4
15.9%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 4 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+11
15.6%
Cameron Friel pass complete to Chad Magyar for 11 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+9
14.0%
Evan Silva punt for 44 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 9 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 4:2689% → 94%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
11.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
11.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+16
11.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 16 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
10.4%
PENALTY USU False Start (Ali'ifua,Demytrick) 5 yards from USU44 to USU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+32
9.2%
Elelyon Noa run for 17 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Bryce Jackson) to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
8.5%
Logan Bonner run for 9 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
8.5%
John Gentry run for no gain to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
8.7%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
8.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-10
8.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 26
0
8.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 26
+1
9.0%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 20
OPP 27
+44
5.7%
Connor Coles 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:028% → 6%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
7.9%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
8.2%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+1
8.2%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
5.8%
Evan Silva punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4996% → 96%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
4.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
4.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Logan Bonner) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
4.6%
PENALTY USU False Start (Smith,Jaden) 5 yards from USU25 to USU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
4.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:126% → 6%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
5.9%
Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
5.6%
Cameron Friel pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:2896% → 99%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
3.8%
Pailate Makakona run for 2 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
3.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
3.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete, broken up by Austin Ajiake for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
3.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+10
3.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 10 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
3.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-2
3.8%
Logan Bonner sacked by Brennon Scott for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+6
3.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
1.1%
Connor Coles 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
1.3%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 23Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+2
1.3%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+4
1.2%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+8
1.1%
Evan Silva punt for 39 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 8 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:1199% → 100%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
0.8%
Logan Bonner run for 5 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
0.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
0.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
0.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
0.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 8 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+16
0.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 16 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
0.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 14 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
0.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.4%
Elelyon Noa 11 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24INT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:251% → 1%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
0.8%
Justin Rogers sacked by Hunter Reynolds for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+1
0.7%
Justin Rogers run for 1 yd to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
0.7%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
0.7%
Justin Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
0.3%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 1:12
Connor Coles 52 yd FG MISSED
-5.7
FG · Q4 12:29
Connor Coles 44 yd FG MISSED
-3.3
TD · Q3 8:18
Charles Williams 5 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com