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CSU

Colorado State 36 at New Mexico 7

UNM
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-4UNM 3.1%Cayden Camper 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 26 - HOME 7 · Q4 11:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:38 · Cayden Camper 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior−6.0Home team on offense−41.1Score differential−22.1Garbage-time factor−9.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:57: David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:06: Cayden Camper 47 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:14: David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:38: Cayden Camper 25 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:50: Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 43 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 13:01UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:18UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:59CSU 4th & 3 at UNM 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:50UNM 4th & 8 at CSU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:47CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 16, up 10
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:06CSU 4th & 10 at UNM 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:16UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:49CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:43UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 1, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−4.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:11UNM 4th & 16 at UNM 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:30CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 31, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:20CSU 4th & 14 at UNM 27, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−1.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−5.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:32UNM 4th & 13 at UNM 12, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:12CSU 4th & 7 at UNM 47, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:44UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 18, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:38CSU 4th & 5 at UNM 7, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.3%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−3.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:28UNM 4th & 16 at UNM 32, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:56CSU 4th & 3 at UNM 3, up 26
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:45UNM 4th & 19 at CSU 36, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:57CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:14CSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:50CSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5922% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.2%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Manny Jones) to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
22.2%
CJ Montes pass complete to Trae Hall for 6 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
22.2%
CJ Montes pass complete to Zarak Scruggs Jr. for 1 yd to the NMex 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
22.2%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
23.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:1977% → 75%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
23.1%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
23.1%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
23.1%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
23.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+9
24.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 9 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
24.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
24.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for no gain to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
24.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
25.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3INT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:0425% → 27%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
25.0%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
25.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Marshaun Cameron) to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
25.3%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
25.2%
CJ Montes pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
25.0%
MONTES, C.J. sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the UNM16 (CARTER, Cam'Ron). PENALTY CSU Holding on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced 10 yards from the UNM23 to the UNM33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
25.0%
CJ Montes sacked by Cam'Ron Carter for 0 yards to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
25.1%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
25.0%
CJ Montes pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
26.5%
CJ Montes pass intercepted return for no gain to the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:4174% → 76%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
25.8%
David Bailey run for 13 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
25.4%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
25.3%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+8
25.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 8 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
25.2%
Jordan Kress run for 4 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
25.2%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+20
25.3%
Todd Centeio run for 20 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
25.0%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-1
25.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+11
25.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 11 yds to the NMex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
25.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the NMex 2Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.7%
David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3125% → 25%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
25.0%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+15
24.9%
Aaron Dumas run for 15 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
25.2%
Aaron Dumas run for 3 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
25.2%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
24.9%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
24.7%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:1975% → 76%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
24.7%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
24.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for 8 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
24.7%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+26
23.8%
Todd Centeio run for 26 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
23.8%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the NMex 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+16
24.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 16 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
23.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Jordan Kress for 7 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
23.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
23.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
23.8%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the NMex 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
24.0%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the NMex 3Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
23.7%
Cayden Camper 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5724% → 23%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
23.8%
Bobby Cole run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
50
0
24.2%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 10
50
+2
24.0%
Aaron Dumas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
23.8%
CJ Montes run for no gain to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
23.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, downed at the ColSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0375% → 69%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
24.6%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+6
24.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 6 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+1
24.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 1 yd to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+63
31.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds , Luke Wysong returns for 63 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:4170% → 74%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
30.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 35 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
28.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+9
28.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for 9 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
27.8%
CENTEIO, Todd pass to the left complete for 8 yards to MCCULLOUCH, Ty caught at the UNM21 and advanced to the UNM21 (COMBS, Tavian). PENALTY Before the snap, CSU Illegal Formation on WILLIAMS, Gary enforced 5 yards from the UNM29 to the UNM34. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+6
28.0%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
27.9%
Todd Centeio sacked by Justin Harris for 0 yards to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
28.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
25.7%
Cayden Camper 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4329% → 28%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
28.6%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
28.5%
Bobby Cole run for 8 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-4
29.4%
CJ Montes run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+25
28.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 40 yds NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2775% → 72%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
24.9%
David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
25.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
25.8%
Todd Centeio sacked by Joey Noble for 0 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
27.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 63 yds, downed at the NMex 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:5828% → 26%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
28.3%
Bobby Cole run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
28.2%
Bobby Cole run for no gain to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
26.7%
Bobby Cole run for no gain to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 11
OWN 1
+8
26.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 54 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for 8 yds to the NMex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:4277% → 77%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
22.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
23.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 14 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
22.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 15 yds to the NMex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
22.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
22.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+36
22.6%
Cayden Camper 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4674% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.2%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
25.2%
David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
25.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 5 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+41
24.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 41 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
23.9%
E.J. Scott run for 13 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offsides (Joey Noble) to the NMex 4Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
23.9%
BAILEY, David rush up the middle for no gain to the UNM4 (COMBS, Tavian;HUNTER, Dion). PENALTY UNM Offsides on NOBLE, Joey enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the UNM4 to the UNM2 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.3%
David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:0320% → 18%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
19.8%
Trae Hall run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
20.3%
Aaron Dumas run for 3 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
20.0%
Aaron Dumas run for 5 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 22
OWN 34
+1
19.5%
CJ Montes run for 1 yd to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 21
OWN 35
+5
18.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Trey McBride) to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 16
OWN 40
0
19.1%
CJ Montes pass incomplete NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
18.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thomas Pannunzio at the ColSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4184% → 84%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
15.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
15.9%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+6
16.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-3
15.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds , Luke Wysong returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:2918% → 18%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
18.1%
Aaron Dumas run for 9 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+6
18.4%
Aaron Dumas run for 6 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
18.1%
CJ Montes run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 23 fumbled, recovered by ColSt Dequan JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4188% → 89%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
11.6%
David Bailey run for no gain to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
11.8%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
11.8%
Todd Centeio sacked by Reco Hannah for 0 yards to the NMex 27Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+46
11.0%
Cayden Camper 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4012% → 12%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
12.4%
Trae Hall run for 1 yd to the NMex 16Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
12.3%
CJ Montes sacked by Cam'Ron Carter for 0 yards to the NMex 12Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 13
OWN 12
0
12.1%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
11.8%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 49 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for no gain to the ColSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2091% → 92%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
9.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 7 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
9.2%
David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
9.4%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
50
+2
9.1%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
9.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+1
9.2%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the NMex 47Similar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
7.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:1611% → 10%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
11.4%
Bobby Cole run for 10 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
11.5%
CJ Montes pass complete to Zarak Scruggs Jr. for 14 yds to the NMex 34 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Block below the waist on COLE, Bobby enforced half the distance from the goal (Bobby Cole) to the NMex 12Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 18
OWN 12
0
11.4%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+5
11.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the NMex 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+1
11.3%
Aaron Dumas run for 1 yd to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
11.1%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+44
10.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 34 yds, downed at the NEWMEXICO 48 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Kress) to the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0693% → 97%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+50
7.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 50 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
6.6%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
6.8%
Todd Centeio sacked by Ray Leutele for 0 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 21
OPP 23
+16
7.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 16 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
3.1%
Cayden Camper 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:055% → 4%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
4.5%
MONTES, C.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for WYSONG, Luke thrown to the CSU40. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on AJAYI, Rashad enforced 15 yards to the UNM38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.7%
CJ Montes sacked by Scott Patchan for 0 yards to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 16
OWN 32
0
4.4%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 16
OWN 32
0
4.4%
CJ Montes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
4.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 30 yds, downed at the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:3898% → 100%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
2.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 6 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+12
2.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 12 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
2.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+43
0.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 43 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
0.3%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
0.3%
CJ Montes pass intercepted return for no gain to the NMex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
0.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
0.4%
THOMAS, Jaylen rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UNM2 (COMBS, Tavian). PENALTY UNM Offsides on NOBLE, Joey enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UNM7 to the UNM3 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMex 2Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
0.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 3Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
0.2%
Cayden Camper 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 28DOWNS
10 plays · 12 yds · 5:030% → 0%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
0.2%
Aaron Dumas run for 4 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
0.2%
Aaron Dumas run for 3 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+8
0.2%
Aaron Dumas run for 8 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
0.2%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Zarak Scruggs Jr. for 5 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
0.2%
Aaron Dumas run for 6 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
0.2%
Aaron Dumas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-5
0.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Luke Wysong) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+1
0.2%
Aaron Dumas run for 1 yd to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Isaiah Chavez sacked by Sanjay Strickland and Troy Golden for 0 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 19
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Isaiah Chavez sacked by Cian Quiroga for 0 yards to the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:14
David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
-8.6
FG · Q4 11:38
Cayden Camper 25 yd FG GOOD
-4
FG · Q2 5:06
Cayden Camper 47 yd FG GOOD
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com