2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreAF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:49 · Matthew Dapore 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:53: Haaziq Daniels run for 25 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK) — AF win probability +5.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:04: Andrew Van Buren run for 11 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:12: Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK) — AF win probability +10.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:38: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39 — AF win probability +7.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:49: Jonah Dalmas 37 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +6.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 11:15AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.4%71% to convertField goal39.2%−0.288% to makePunt38.6%−0.7average punt
- Q1 3:12BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snapGo for it58.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.8%average punt
- Q1 0:00AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.0%71% to convertField goal40.9%−1.145% to makePunt40.6%−1.4average punt
- Q2 3:38BOIS 4th & 29 at BOIS 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snapGo for it42.1%−3.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.2%average punt
- Q2 0:22AF 4th & 14 at AF 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snapGo for it54.3%−1.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.1%average punt
- Q3 13:34AF 4th & 7 at AF 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snapGo for it58.2%−1.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.5%average punt
- Q3 12:46BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snapGo for it39.6%−1.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.0%average punt
- Q3 11:12AF 4th & 7 at AF 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snapGo for it58.5%−1.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.8%average punt
- Q3 5:00BOIS 4th & 2 at AF 2, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.2%48% to convertField goal37.9%−3.394% to makePunt23.7%−17.5average punt
- Q4 11:38AF 4th & 5 at BOIS 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snapGo for it73.0%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call73.2%85% to makePunt63.8%−9.4average punt
- Q4 9:33BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snapGo for it22.0%−2.820% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q4 4:55AF 4th & 19 at AF 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snapGo for it80.1%−4.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.2%average punt
- Q4 2:49AF 4th & 4 at BOIS 9, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.1%43% to convertField goalTheir call86.6%−0.589% to makePunt80.0%−7.1average punt
- Q4 0:49BOIS 4th & 6 at AF 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snapGo for it7.0%−1.638% to convertField goalTheir call8.6%75% to makePunt5.2%−3.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:15BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.6%97% to makeGo for two60.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:29AF Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.9%97% to makeGo for two39.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:53AF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.2%97% to makeGo for two46.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:04BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.5%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:12AF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.2%97% to makeGo for two51.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBOISDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4561% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
60.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 8 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
60.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 4 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+39
60.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 39 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
62.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:4638% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1761% → 60%
Q1 3:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
60.0%
Joel Velazquez punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD10 plays · 76 yds · 4:1940% → 48%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
60.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kekaula Kaniho) to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD10 plays · 80 yds · 3:4154% → 64%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
54.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 22 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
54.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 10 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+9
56.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 9 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
56.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for no gain to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+12
55.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 12 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5240% → 54%
Q2 10:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+59
60.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 59 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 0 yds · 2:2550% → 47%
Q2 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+13
51.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 13 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
51.9%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right incomplete intended for SHAKIR, Khalil thrown to the AFA2. PENALTY BSU Holding on STETZ, Jake enforced 10 yards from the AFA44 to the BSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 20
OWN 46
-10
49.8%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right complete for 14 yards to THOMAS, CT caught at the AFA40 and advanced to the AFA40 (MOCK, Alec). PENALTY BSU Holding on OSUJI, Uzo enforced 10 yards from the BSU46 to the BSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 29
OWN 37
0
46.9%
Joel Velazquez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 3:1652% → 55%
Q2 0:33
4TH & 8
OWN 43
-6
43.1%
BEIN, Charles punt 46 yards to the BSU11 downed. PENALTY Before the snap, AFA Illegal Formation enforced 6 yards from the AFA43 to the AFA37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+13
44.6%
Charles Bein punt for 39 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 13 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · -3 yds · 0:2246% → 44%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 4 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-15
47.6%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle complete for 12 yards to COBBS, Stefan caught at the AFA48 and advanced to the AFA47 (TAYLOR, Trey). PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on SMITH, Riley enforced 15 yards to the BSU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+8
44.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 8 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2559% → 58%
Q3 13:34
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+41
42.1%
Charles Bein punt for 41 yds BOISE ST Penalty, Running Into the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4844% → 41%
Q3 12:46
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
41.0%
Joel Velazquez punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3459% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13DOWNS14 plays · 63 yds · 6:1243% → 40%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
45.4%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle complete for 43 yards to SHAKIR, Khalil caught at the AFA39 and advanced to the AFA10 (MEEKS, Demonte). PENALTY BSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on FARRAR, Will enforced 5 yards from the BSU47 to the BSU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+11
42.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 11 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+28
46.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 28 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Camby Goff) to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14MISSED FG15 plays · 84 yds · 8:2265% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0529% → 25%
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+22
29.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 22 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+6
27.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
24.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 4:3878% → 84%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
18.1%
ROBERTS, Brad rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the BSU40 (OBICHERE, Divine;NOA, Ezekiel). PENALTY AFA Unnecessary Roughness on SMALLEY, Everett enforced 15 yards from the BSU46 to the AFA39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
15.8%
Charles Bein punt for 36 yds , returns for no gain to the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FG5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0689% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FG11 plays · 53 yds · 2:007% → 16%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
6.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 8 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+15
7.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
50
+8
7.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 8 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+7
10.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 7 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
10.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 4 yds to the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
15.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted Tre Bugg Iii return for no gain to the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-15.8
TD · Q2 6:12
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q2 10:04
Andrew Van Buren run for 11 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+8.1