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NMSU

New Mexico State 28 at Nevada 55

NEV
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:35 · Josh Carlson punt for 48 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 26 yds to the NMxSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+39.2Home team on offense−2.4Score differential−1.0Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:34: Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 16 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +1.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:24: Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 10 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +1.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:09: Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 65 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +5.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:26: Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 23 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:05: Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 15
  1. Q1 11:11NMSU 4th & 13 at NEV 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:07NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:41NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:46NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:35NMSU 4th & 24 at NMSU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:35NEV 4th & 6 at NMSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:06NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:06NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:09NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:25NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:56NMSU 4th & 23 at NMSU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:56NMSU 4th & 23 at NMSU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:13NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:19NMSU 4th & 12 at NEV 27, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:52NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 45, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:33NMSU 4th & 1 at NEV 48, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:47NEV 4th & 7 at NMSU 14, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:40NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 34, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:12NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 25, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:37NEV 4th & 16 at NMSU 45, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:09NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 44, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:39NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 29, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:39NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 29, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:17NEV 4th & 7 at NMSU 25, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 12:34NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:24NEV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:09NEV Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:26NEV Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:05NEV Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:27NEV Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:57NMSU Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:19NMSU Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:06NMSU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:495% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 13 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
94.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 9 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
94.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
94.8%
Jonah Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
94.8%
Juwaun Price run for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
94.8%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+16
94.8%
Juwaun Price run for 16 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
94.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Justice PowersSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+3
94.8%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+47
93.9%
Ethan Albertson 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2INT
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:5194% → 94%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
93.9%
Strong,Carson pass complete to Taua,Toa for 4 yards to the NEV35 (Ojoh,Chris; Brohard,Trevor) PENALTY NMS Holding 10 yards from NEV31 to NEV41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.7%
Carson Strong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:217% → 7%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
93.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 6 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+15
93.5%
NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Lee) to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
93.5%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the Nevad 19Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
92.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 19 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5293% → 92%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
92.8%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
92.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Devonte LeeSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
92.4%
Julian Diaz punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:268% → 8%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
92.3%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Sam Hammond for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 16
OWN 32
0
92.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Lawrence DixonSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+3
92.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 3 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
91.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5592% → 91%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
91.9%
Strong,Carson pass incomplete to Turner,Cole broken up by Giacolone,Nick PENALTY NMS Roughing The Passer (Segura,Justin) 15 yards from NEV31 to NEV46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
92.1%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
92.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-8
92.1%
Carson Strong sacked by Devin Bell for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
90.8%
Julian Diaz punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 2:119% → 10%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
90.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
90.8%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Tristan Nichols for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-7
91.0%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Trevor Price for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 19
OWN 11
-5
91.1%
PENALTY NMS False Start (Zolezzi,Dylan) 5 yards from NMS11 to NMS06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 24
OWN 6
+26
90.1%
Josh Carlson punt for 48 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 26 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0091% → 91%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
90.5%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
90.5%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
90.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
90.5%
Brandon Talton 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2310% → 10%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
90.3%
Jonah Johnson sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+10
90.3%
O'Maury Samuels run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
90.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+12
90.1%
Josh Carlson punt for 45 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 12 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5490% → 89%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.1%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+3
89.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 3 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
89.0%
Julian Diaz punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5711% → 11%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.2%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
89.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Pj Johnson III for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
89.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
89.3%
Josh Carlson punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:3589% → 91%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
50
+20
89.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 20 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
89.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chris Ojoh) to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
91.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 16 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0910% → 10%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.4%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
90.5%
O'Maury Samuels run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
90.6%
Johnson,Jonah rush for 12 yards gain to the NMS38, out of bounds PENALTY NMS Holding (Doxtater,Sage) 10 yards from NMS26 to NMS16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+7
90.7%
O'Maury Samuels run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
90.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:0190% → 92%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
89.6%
Devonte Lee run for 7 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+10
90.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 10 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
90.2%
Devonte Lee run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
90.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
90.3%
Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
90.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 15 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
90.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for no gain to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
92.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 10 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:288% → 8%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
91.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
91.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-10
91.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
91.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-13
91.7%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Sam Hammond for a loss of 13 yards to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 23
OWN 27
+8
91.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 38 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 8 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 23
OWN 27
+8
91.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 38 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for 8 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:4791% → 95%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
91.4%
Carson Strong sacked by Lazarus Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+5
90.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+9
90.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Avery Morrow for 9 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
95.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 65 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:566% → 5%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
94.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 19 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
94.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Pj Johnson III for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
94.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
94.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 0:4796% → 98%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+34
96.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 34 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
96.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 17 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
96.2%
Strong,Carson pass complete to Lockhart,Justin for 3 yards to the NMS25 (Stokes,Zach), out of bounds PENALTY NMS Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NMS28 to NMS23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+23
97.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 23 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:013% → 3%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+40
96.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 40 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
96.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 9 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+4
96.1%
Andre Bodison run for 4 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
96.2%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
96.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 12
OPP 27
0
96.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Justice PowersSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 12
OPP 27
0
96.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
97.7%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5598% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
97.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 30 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
97.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-5
97.7%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Stovall,Melquan) 5 yards from NMS42 to NMS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+13
97.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 13 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
97.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+22
97.7%
Avery Morrow run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.6%
Juwaun Price run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 5 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.6%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
99.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
99.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
99.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 23 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 13 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
99.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 33 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 18 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 4 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
99.7%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
99.7%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+1
99.7%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Carson WaltersSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.7%
Nate Cox pass complete to Wesley Kommer for 4 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+15
99.8%
Nate Cox run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.8%
Cox,Nate pass incomplete to Roberson,Reagan PENALTY NMS Pass Interference (Brohard,Trevor) 15 yards from NMS32 to NMS17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.8%
Nate Cox pass complete to Wesley Kommer for 3 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Reagan RobersonSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
99.8%
Brandon Talton 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
99.8%
Berdale Robins 25 Yd Fumble Return (Brandon Talton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+13
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Alex Escobar for 13 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Alex Escobar run for no gain to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Wesley Kommer for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
99.8%
Wesley Kommer run for 3 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Tyrese MackSimilar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Julian Diaz punt for 58 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 3 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Pj Johnson III for 6 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+7
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Pj Johnson III for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 12 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 26 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 22 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 18 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 30PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:20100% → 100%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
99.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Wesley Kommer for 13 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Carson Walters for 3 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+25
99.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 25 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
Wesley Kommer run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-5
99.9%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Nunez,Jacob) 5 yards from NMS34 to NMS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-6
99.9%
Nate Cox sacked by Eric Marsh for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 16
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Harry Ballard IIISimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Nate Cox punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 22 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Price,Juwaun PENALTY NEV Roughing The Passer (Johnson,Amir) 15 yards from NEV49 to NEV34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Pj Johnson III for 34 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
run for 4 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-3
99.9%
Nate Cox sacked by Joshua Ferguson for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+16
99.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Tyrese Mack for 16 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Julian Diaz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 33PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 8 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 29 ydsSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 34FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Dylan Overstreet run for 2 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+25
99.9%
Nate Cox pass complete to Peter Montini for 25 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Dylan Overstreet run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Dylan Overstreet run for no gain to the NMxSt 25 Dylan Overstreet fumbled, forced by Eric Marsh, recovered by Nevad Trey HamiltonSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Nate Cox pass incomplete to Harry Ballard IIISimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
100.0%
Brandon Talton 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 35TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:110% → 0%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Alex Escobar for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 1
50
+2
100.0%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 7 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+6
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Ron Vann for 6 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 9 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+16
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 16 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 9 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 36END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:09
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 65 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
+5
TD · Q2 7:24
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 10 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q3 12:05
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com