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NMSU

New Mexico State 31 at San José State 37

SJSU
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:47 · Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:33: Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 8 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:23: Juwaun Price run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 11:51: Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +18.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 5:49: Nick Nash pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:48: Ethan Albertson 25 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:56NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:58SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:09SJSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:20SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:58NMSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q4 5:49NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 32, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:48NMSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 7, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.8%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:11SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:28NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:08SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:33NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:54SJSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:23NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:18SJSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:51NMSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:49SJSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:008% → 9%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
91.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 11 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
91.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Timothy Gans for 4 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-1
91.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5891% → 91%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
91.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-4
91.1%
Shamar Garrett run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 31Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+7
91.1%
Nick Nash run for 7 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
90.5%
Will Hart punt for 49 yds, downed at the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:109% → 10%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
90.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 3 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
90.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
90.6%
Jonah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
90.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
90.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
90.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 6 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
89.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Shamar Garrett at the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 6:3790% → 90%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
89.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+27
89.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 27 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 13
50
+16
89.7%
Shamar Garrett run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+7
89.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
90.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
90.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
89.9%
Shamar Garrett run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
90.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
90.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
90.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:4311% → 16%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.3%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+55
89.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 55 yds to the SJSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
88.1%
O'Maury Samuels run for 5 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
88.1%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the SJSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+6
88.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 6 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
88.1%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 2:1186% → 89%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
86.0%
Nick Nash run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
50
+25
86.8%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 25 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.0%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
89.2%
Nick Nash pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:2812% → 21%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
88.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 12 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
88.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 9 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
87.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for 4 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
87.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 16 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
87.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Robert Downs III for 6 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+5
87.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 5 yds to the SJSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
87.1%
Jonah Johnson run for 8 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+3
87.1%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
87.1%
O'Maury Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.1%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
79.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 8 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 3:2484% → 84%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+36
83.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 36 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
85.0%
NASH, Nick pass to the left complete for -2 yards to ROSS, Charles caught at the NMS23 and advanced to the NMS30 (BROHARD, Trevor). PENALTY SJS Personal Foul on NAVARRO, Jaime enforced 15 yards from the NMS23 to the NMS38, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, 5 yards credited to passer and receiver on the play [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+19
84.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 19 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
85.0%
Kairee Robinson run for no gain to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-2
84.4%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+35
83.8%
Matt Mercurio 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Jonah Johnson pass intercepted return for no gain to the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
90.8%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:5411% → 13%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
89.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
89.0%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
89.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+18
88.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 18 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
87.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3489% → 88%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
89.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
88.5%
NASH, Nick scrambles to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the SJS24 (SEGURA, Justin), out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Offsides enforced 5 yards from the SJS26 to the SJS31 and results in a 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.1%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
89.0%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+2
88.4%
Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
88.1%
Will Hart punt for 48 yds, downed at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2211% → 11%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
88.7%
Jonah Johnson run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
88.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
89.7%
Jonah Johnson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+7
89.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.0%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Cade Hall for 0 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 24
OWN 30
0
89.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 24
OWN 30
+22
90.2%
O'Maury Samuels run for 22 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
89.3%
Josh Carlson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Shamar Garrett at the SJSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
89.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
89.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:0512% → 25%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
87.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for 5 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
88.3%
JOHNSON, Jonah pass to the left incomplete intended for PRICE, Juwaun thrown to the SJS10. PENALTY SJS Personal Foul on HALL, Cade enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the SJS20 to the SJS10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
87.7%
JOHNSON, Jonah pass to the right incomplete intended for HARRITY, Cole thrown to the SJS0. PENALTY SJS Pass Interference on BROWN, II, Bobby enforced 8 yards to the SJS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.8%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:5880% → 91%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
79.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Illegal Snap on ROBBINS, Trevor enforced (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 10Similar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+1
79.9%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the SJSt 11Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+25
79.8%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 25 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
80.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 17 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
82.5%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 6 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+39
82.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 39 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
83.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.4%
Shamar Garrett run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:2411% → 33%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
89.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 7 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
88.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
88.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 8 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-2
87.6%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+7
88.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Robert Downs III for 7 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
87.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+15
87.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for 15 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
86.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Robert Downs III for 28 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
85.0%
O'Maury Samuels run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 12Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
85.5%
Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 6:0274% → 95%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 16
OWN 19
+21
74.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 21 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
76.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 1 yd to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+7
75.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 7 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+12
76.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
78.1%
QB Keeper NASH, Nick rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the NMS31 (MILLS, Caleb), out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Personal Foul on MILLS, Caleb enforced 15 yards from the end of the play at the NMS31 to the NMS16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
79.1%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
79.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+7
77.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 1 fumbled, recovered by SJSt Malikhi MillerSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.0%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:017% → 20%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
91.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
92.1%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+11
92.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 11 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
91.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 18 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
90.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 9 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+2
89.5%
PRICE, Juwaun rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the SJS28 (HARMON, Kyle). PENALTY SJS Personal Foul on HARMON, Kyle enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the SJS29 to the SJS15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
89.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
89.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 7 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
90.3%
Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
79.9%
Ethan Albertson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5996% → 97%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
95.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
96.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
96.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:51
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-18.7
TD · Q4 5:49
Nick Nash pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q3 6:23
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com